Models Have Us On Northern Edge Of Snow 3/4/16

[PB GFI]

Last 4 runs of the GEFS 

 

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

If we follow the trends this winter then it'll come N&W from now, I'm positive of that.

[JC-CT]

Not saying it can't come north Ant, but it looks to me like there was some "trend" towards a consensus. Maybe it will change, still worth watching. But saying it is definitely coming west is silly.

[JC-CT]

Last 4 runs of the GEFS 

 

 

That just shows that the GEFS were pathetic. Post the same for the EPS, you'll see the opposite. They compromised 70/30 to the Euro as usual.

[PB GFI]

Check the 12z  UKMET  yesterday 120 /144 vs the 12z  96/ 120 today . 

 

The trend has been favorable . Does not mean it has to continue but the models relaxed the vortex a bit over the past 24 hours .

 

Difference maker in the end ? I think so , but lets see what this looks like in 24 hours .

Not sure if it is done 

[PB GFI]

That just shows that the GEFS were pathetic. Post the same for the EPS, you'll see the opposite. They compromised 70/30 to the Euro as usual.

 

JC check out the INDI at 96 vs the 0z at 108 .

You will see the members at OBX .

The tick was W , they were more tucked in . There was a trend today . Lets see if it continues 

[Thunder7842]

NAM at hour 84 shows steady snow moving through PA. I know you're not supposed to take much from long range NAM but it appears that it has snow moving in for us friday morning. 

[MJO812]

Gepshttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2016022912/gem-ens_mslp_pwat_us_19.png

[wthrmn654]

Upton update early is early today000

.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT-

FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN...STILL DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF

ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW. ANYTIME YOU ARE RELYING ON

ENERGY INTERACTING WITH/EJECTING FROM A CUTOFF LOW THERE IS A HIGHER

DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL. ADDED TO THIS...THIS IS IN A

REGION NOT WELL SAMPLED BY RADIOSONDES...AND THIS INCREASES THE

UNCERTAINTY EVEN FURTHER. IF MODEL TIMING IS ANYWHERE NEAR

CORRECT...THE ENERGY IN QUESTION SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST

SOMEWHERE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CERTAINTY SHOULD BEGIN TO

INCREASE AFTER THAT POINT.

FOR NOW...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE

COASTAL LOW...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A DEFINITE HIT (THE

CANADIAN) TO MISSING WELL TO THE SOUTH (VARIOUS GFS/ECMWF/CMC

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THE TWO THINGS THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN...IS THAT

THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG HIGH TO THE NW/N OF THE AREA

THAT P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW....AND THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

AREA HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW OVER THE SW 1/2

OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGHOUT ON FRIDAY...AND THEN

OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT

IS TO SOON TO SPECIFY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT THIS STORM WILL HAVE ON

THE TRI-STATE.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSITS THE AREA ON SATURDAY

KEEPING THINGS DRY.

WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...THERE IS A GENERAL

CONSENSUS THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND MAINLY SNOW.

HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT THE PRECIPITATION IS...AND IF IT

LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION COULD TURN TO ALL RAIN

SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY

NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON MONDAY. FOR

NOW WENT DRY IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE RIDGING ON SUNDAY

NIGHT...AND EXPECTED DRY LOW LEVELS ON MONDAY.

[RU848789]

Upton update early is early today000

.

THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT-

FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. ONCE AGAIN...STILL DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF

ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW. ANYTIME YOU ARE RELYING ON

ENERGY INTERACTING WITH/EJECTING FROM A CUTOFF LOW THERE IS A HIGHER

DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL. ADDED TO THIS...THIS IS IN A

REGION NOT WELL SAMPLED BY RADIOSONDES...AND THIS INCREASES THE

UNCERTAINTY EVEN FURTHER. IF MODEL TIMING IS ANYWHERE NEAR

CORRECT...THE ENERGY IN QUESTION SHOULD REACH THE WEST COAST

SOMEWHERE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CERTAINTY SHOULD BEGIN TO

INCREASE AFTER THAT POINT.

FOR NOW...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH THE

COASTAL LOW...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A DEFINITE HIT (THE

CANADIAN) TO MISSING WELL TO THE SOUTH (VARIOUS GFS/ECMWF/CMC

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS). THE TWO THINGS THEY ARE CONSISTENT IN...IS THAT

THERE WILL BE A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG HIGH TO THE NW/N OF THE AREA

THAT P-TYPE SHOULD BE ALL SNOW....AND THAT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE

AREA HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS.

BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW OVER THE SW 1/2

OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN THROUGHOUT ON FRIDAY...AND THEN

OVER THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT

IS TO SOON TO SPECIFY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACT THIS STORM WILL HAVE ON

THE TRI-STATE.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRANSITS THE AREA ON SATURDAY

KEEPING THINGS DRY.

WHILE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...THERE IS A GENERAL

CONSENSUS THAT A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...AND MAINLY SNOW.

HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON HOW LIGHT THE PRECIPITATION IS...AND IF IT

LINGERS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION COULD TURN TO ALL RAIN

SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY

NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON MONDAY. FOR

NOW WENT DRY IN THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THE RIDGING ON SUNDAY

NIGHT...AND EXPECTED DRY LOW LEVELS ON MONDAY.

 

Pretty large disparity in AFDs between Upton (bullish) and Mt. Holly ("glancing blow")...

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

OVERVIEW...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE

NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE

PARENT LOW IN THE VICINITY OF OHIO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK

INTO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A COLD

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. CURRENT TIMING PROJECTS

THE FROPA BETWEEN 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER. SURFACE

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK

OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. AS

THIS IS OCCURRING, LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER TENNESSEE

VALLEY. THIS LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST

(NEAR THE NC AND SC BORDER) EARLY ON FRIDAY. LATEST TRENDS MOVE THE

LOW WELL OFF THE COAST JUST GIVING THE REGION A GLANCING BLOW. A

WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES, EMBEDDED

IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, COULD GET IN HERE LATE SATURDAY OR INTO

SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE REGION, BEHIND THIS

FEATURE, ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR PHL IS UPPER 40S AND

LOW 30S. WITH THE MODELS TRENDING FASTER WITH THE WEDNESDAY COLD

FRONT, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO DAYTIME HIGHS. LOOKS LIKE

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SAID, BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES CAN NOW BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND

SATURDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY

AND THEN HIT ABOVE NORMAL RANGES ON MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THREE SHOTS OF

PRECIPITATION THROUGH EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL COME TUESDAY

NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST ALL RAIN WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. WPC PAINTS 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH

OF LIQUID ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A BIT OF 0.50 TO 0.75 ACROSS

THE POCONOS. THE NEXT SHOT WILL COME FRIDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY

CONTINUES BUT THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE FAR

NORTHWEST, A MIX ACROSS THE I95 CORRIDOR, AND SNOW TO RAIN ACROSS

THE COASTAL PLAIN. WPC PAINTS ABOUT 0.10 INCH OF LIQUID AT THIS

TIME. THE LAST SHOT WILL COME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH LOWS

EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT, SNOW IS A GOOD BET

ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. WPC PAINTS 0.00 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A

0.10 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE.

WINDS...ON TUESDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS

THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST. BUT

AN INVERSION SHOULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS 15 MPH OR LESS. TIMING IS A

FACTOR HERE, BUT WE WILL LOOSE THE INVERSION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO

EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST,

NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY COULD GUST WELL INTO THE 30

MPH RANGE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, BUFKIT

SUGGEST WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN AND GUST INTO THE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE 15 MPH OR LESS.

IMPACTS...WE COULD SEE SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT

INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT CURRENT QPF IS LESS THAN WHAT WE`VE SEEN

THE LAST TWO FEBRUARY EVENTS. THE THREAT OF FLOODING, OTHER THAN

POOR DRAINAGE, IS ON THE LOWER END OF SCALE. THIS IS GOOD BECAUSE

RIVER LEVELS IN THE PASSAIC REMAIN HIGH (ELSEWHERE TOO). FOR THE

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SYSTEM, THE OVERALL IMPACT SHOULD BE ON

THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM, BUT WE`LL NEED TO MINDFUL THAT IT

COULD BE SNOWING DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH. THE SATURDAY NIGHT

INTO SUNDAY SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE. SO ANY IMPACTS WITH

THIS ONE WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM. PLUS NO

COMMUTE ON SUNDAY MORNING.

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[MJO812]

Gfs still ots but slightly stronger

[AnthonyDabbundo]

GFS at 18z same slp position, but 3 mb stronger. Down to 997

[Rjay]

GFS at 18z same slp position, but 3 mb stronger. Down to 997

Literally the same spot

12z vs 18z

[MJO812]

I would like to see the gfs and euro to get on board. After this storm, it looks like there might be a little clipper at 144 hours. Winter will most likely be over after that

[SnowGoose69]

The system overly digs IMO given the setup at 500mb over the nation as a whole. I'm somewhat suspicious this thing is going to dive from Illinois into North Carolina

[dmillz25]

GFS is pretty darn close. A nice 50-100 mile shift north and we're in a snowstorm

[dmillz25]

The system overly digs IMO given the setup at 500mb over the nation as a whole. I'm somewhat suspicious this thing is going to dive from Illinois into North Carolina

Where do you think it would end up?

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

GFS is pretty darn close. A nice 50-100 mile shift north and we're in a snowstorm

Your gonna wayyyy more than 50-100, more like 200 miles

[MJO812]

The system overly digs IMO given the setup at 500mb over the nation as a whole. I'm somewhat suspicious this thing is going to dive from Illinois into North Carolina

Itsa weird track. It was north of 12z until it made that jump south. ggem doesnt jump that much south.

[MJO812]

Your gonna wayyyy more than 50-100,u more like 200 miles

Doable but i want to see the gfs and euro come on board soon.

[SnowGoose69]

What do you think it would end up?

Faster weaker and flatter initially, that doesn't necessarily work out to a better scenario for us as it may not let the confluence get out in time, but this winter I'm against a slower digging scenario for sure

[MJO812]

Navgem still a big hit

[JC-CT]

Navgem still a big hit

 

It's a stubborn little bugger. More interested in the 18z GEFS

[MJO812]

It's a stubborn little bugger. More interested in the 18z GEFS

Im going down with the ggem if I have to. Last possible storm of the winter. After winter ends, I rarely look at the models.

[Rjay]

Navgem still a big hit

[JC-CT]

Im going down with the ggem if I have to. Last possible storm of the winter. After winter ends, I rarely look at the models.

 

You don't have to. You really, really don't. But you can if you want lol

[IsentropicLift]

Im going down with the ggem if I have to. Last possible storm of the winter. After winter ends, I rarely look at the models.

You're on the Titanic bud and you're ignoring the iceberg warnings lol

[wthrmn654]

And the gefs is close,but no cigar.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Southern jersey/Deleware jackpot on NAVGEM, still a MECS for everyone

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Verbatim based off 10:1 ratios, NAVGEM is 8-12" for most of the city/Long Island/ and jersey, 6-10" for most of the Hudson valley with a cutoff of 4-6 well north of 84, and 12-18+ for DE/SNJ