LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll leave this here for the LI folks to drool over for the next few hours before it's gone at 00z. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can someone post an image of navgem 12z Accept the permission . https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_namer&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just checked qpf, NAVGEM would be widespread 12-18", LHV gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Highlighted for Clarity 48hr surface map from the OPC ---two day storm window--- That 1025mb High prog in the Southeast is what we need to clear off the coast ..... for us to have a shot at something good -imho I will post the updated 96hr when it is released It shouldn't take much of a shift in the precip field for a very nice hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Alot of close misses on gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro is way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro is way OTS We knew that was going to happen. The ridge out west is too flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That ridge out west needs improvement. But overall all 12z models showed a slight improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Improvement on the euro Need the pv to lift out faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That ridge out west needs improvement. But overall all 12z models showed a slight improvementYeah, the Euro is a rather big improvement for areas further south, it's still quite possible that we get something out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Come on guys!! What's been the trend all winter???? I'm happy the euro is out to sea. Let's just prevent a cutter "Let us prevent a cutter?" Didn't realize we had that power... Cracks me up that people don't want to be in the bullseye. I want to be in the bullseye every run of every model. Models become more and more accurate as they approach the event, often fluctuating somewhat around the final track/solution, but you always want to be in the bullseye, unless there is a known, documented systemic error with a model under very specific conditions and I don't think I've seen anyone show that yet. I wish we'd show the overall "forecast" like the NHC does with tropical systems, i.e., with a "cone of uncertainty" around a track. I guess the hard part is, with a tropical system, the storm has already formed, whereas with most potential east coast storms, the low sometimes doesn't even form, per se, until the day before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 "Let us prevent a cutter?" Didn't realize we had that power... Cracks me up that people don't want to be in the bullseye. I want to be in the bullseye every run of every model. Models become more and more accurate as they approach the event, often fluctuating somewhat around the final track/solution, but you always want to be in the bullseye, unless there is a known, documented systemic error with a model under very specific conditions and I don't think I've seen anyone show that yet. I wish we'd show the overall "forecast" like the NHC does with tropical systems, i.e., with a "cone of uncertainty" around a track. I guess the hard part is, with a tropical system, the storm has already formed, whereas with most potential east coast storms, the low sometimes doesn't even form, per se, until the day before the event. We'll see that's the underlying problem here. People practice modelogy rather then meteorology. The WAR has been consistently stronger then modeled all winter. Thus pretty much every storm had been west and north of the 120 hour forecasts. I fully believe this is a big hit. A blue bomb for the coast and a MEC inland and elevated just as I have been saying would happen since last falls if I'm wrong I'll eat my words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 "Let us prevent a cutter?" Didn't realize we had that power... Cracks me up that people don't want to be in the bullseye. I want to be in the bullseye every run of every model. Models become more and more accurate as they approach the event, often fluctuating somewhat around the final track/solution, but you always want to be in the bullseye, unless there is a known, documented systemic error with a model under very specific conditions and I don't think I've seen anyone show that yet. I wish we'd show the overall "forecast" like the NHC does with tropical systems, i.e., with a "cone of uncertainty" around a track. I guess the hard part is, with a tropical system, the storm has already formed, whereas with most potential east coast storms, the low sometimes doesn't even form, per se, until the day before the event. Well we was never in the bullseye until last minute for the January blizzard. Only the NAM had us in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Look at the differences between how all the models handle the WAR... The CMC has it the strongest and also amplifies the ridge out west the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 JMA looks like euro, maybe even further OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 JMA looks like euro, maybe even further OTS Slight improvement from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Per sne thread,eps bumped northwest . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro ensembles ticked north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Per sne thread,eps bumped northwest . Eps don't have a single member that would deliver a snowstorm.. Not a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This is NOT what you wanna see 4-5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Euro ensembles ticked north!The mean is a total miss and not one ensemble member is even remotely close to producing snow for the metro area, not one. Total misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The EPS is way OTS. I see my post about wishcasting was deleted earlier. I'll say it again, some horrific analysis going on in here. Its better than 0z and some members leaning westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 102 hours is an eternity, a 50-70 mile shift on 3 out of the next 4 model suites and everyone is seeing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The clipper on the eps is 2-3 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 102 hours is an eternity, a 50-70 mile shift on 3 out of the next 4 model suites and everyone is seeing snow I'm not a fan of the tight clustering on the EPS and GEFS. But they do sometimes jump as clusters with new data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It is? Winning lotto #s please Positives trends so far today. I dont know what to tell you if you cant see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Has this storm hit land yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml I will let the maps do the talking...for now #WIGGLE-ROOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 102 hours is an eternity, a 50-70 mile shift on 3 out of the next 4 model suites and everyone is seeing snow Just look at the cluster at 102 at OBX vs the 0Z cluster at 114 .( CAN`T POST ) There are many more members are now at OBX . The difference is night and day . The EURO lets up on the confluence earlier in the run I think will do it later on as well . It is already showing signs of releasing to the N . Take a look at SLP at 78 vs the 0z run at 90 when it is in the M/W the Euro . Look how many members are in the N Tenn valley with some member now into S ILL . The trend today has been towards less confluence through N/E and you now see the UKIE which showed 0 yesterday now sticks LP at OBX at 96 . You can see ridge axis looks good , it`s actually in a good spot . So as of right now SLP is coming under the vortex . It will not take much more relaxation for this to come N . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Positives trends so far today. I dont know what to tell you if you cant see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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