PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS/GEM The GFS is 6 hours faster . Will come down to who is modeling the confluence correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In reality, the precip filed would be much more expansive on the N & W side of the low track. The GGEM thinks this is tropical. With a track only 50 miles off the jersey shore, the GGEM.. If that track were true, would bring snow almost to Albany.. Without a doubt, no way the field is that supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's not really being suppressed by that. I think it's a simple case of the trailing shortwave not giving the system room to amplify enough. It's likely the case early on when it's further down near the TN Valley, the setup in southeast Canada likely prevents it from gaining latitude at some point in time earlier and or aids in the diving of the system to the southeast to make it harder to come up the coast later. The trailing disturbance is another thing to watch since the GFS seems to always go nuts on those things coming out of Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 A 987 bomb just offshore, and only a 50-75 miles NW precip field? Doubtful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll leave this here for the LI folks to drool over for the next few hours before it's gone at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll leave this here for the LI folks to drool over for the next few hours before it's gone at 00z. What makes you think it will lose it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 What makes you think it will lose it?How volatile the models are/have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 How volatile the models are/have been True but if we get a weaker high up north or the high shifts east this will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Meanwhile the NavGEM is now almost a rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Navgem is a huge hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Navgem is a big hit for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 With a track only 50 miles off the jersey shore, the GGEM.. If that track were true, would bring snow almost to Albany.. Without a doubt, no way the field is that supressed This has been the pattern for the last 5+ years, tight precip gradients with very sharp cutoffs N and W of low. This would totally fit the precip pattern that has become the norm. I don't question the precip pattern depicted but rather is there really a sub 990 intensifying low 100-150 miles SE of ACY on Fri evening. We would need the low about 50 miles SE of ACY heading toward eastern LI to be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 True but if we get a weaker high up north or the high shifts east this will come north.I'd the high to be stronger and more east. The cold will be better entrenched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 On my cell phone so I can't look right now, goose says almost rainstorm, you guys say huge snowstorm lol I just quick glanced and it but it was very far northwest almost on the coast it appeared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GFS Ens still way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Navgem is a snowstorm guys lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Anyword on the UKIE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Anyword on the UKIE? I believe the SNE forum said it was still a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GEFS over the last 24 hours 12z 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Every model sans euro is trending better with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'll leave this here for the LI folks to drool over for the next few hours before it's gone at 00z. You are not paying attention to the seasonal 2015 - 2016 trends- that being said - the questions are - how many storms have missed us to the southeast this winter ? How many have trended northwest ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can someone please say where they're getting the 12z NAVGEM? Or was everyone looking at the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can someone please say where they're getting the 12z NAVGEM? Or was everyone looking at the 06z run https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I believe the SNE forum said it was still a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I believe the SNE forum said it was still a missDamn that's barely a miss. A shift NW and we're in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Above UKIE vs Yesterdays 12z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Damn that's barely a miss. A shift NW and we're in business Most models are in agreement the low exits the coast off NC or SVA somewhere, it's from that point that they're split between a northern shift to just off the Delmarva and south jersey, to NE past the benchmark and just SE of NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Can someone post an image of navgem 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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