UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gfs is further east so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No dice. Heads almost due ENE from OBX. Only very light precip over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gfs is going. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 There is also a kicker coming through the Northern Plains helping to shunt things East. This threat has a lot stacked against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Worse track than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Much better position than this time yesterday on the gfs. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Much better position than this time yesterday on the gfs. Plenty of time. Their is nothing that supports this coming further NW. You can't bring it North with a positively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This to me looks a bit like February 22 2008. Basically the storm was along the gulf but the precip field made it up here. The set up was very flat as well. Ended up with 9 in CT. Good storm. Had 7 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Their is nothing that supports this coming further NW. You can't bring it North with a positively tilted trough. But you can bring it north with a positive tilted attitude and unwavering optimism Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Worse track than 06z Look at the difference In just 24 hours . It will come down to how the vortex is being modeled . Too strong it leans on it and OTS it goes . If it relaxes it comes N Not impossible , but it needs more work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Their is nothing that supports this coming further NW. You can't bring it North with a positively tilted trough. I just said it looks way better than yesterday and who is to say this is the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I just said it looks way better than yesterday and who is to say this is the final solution. You need to give scientific reasoning as to why the system might come further NW. If you're just saying it may come further NW over time without a reasonable explanation, well...that's called wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM has the low pretty far south @ 00z Fri compared to last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ovrall like the look of the GS, set up looks good, cold air in place, WAR in place, verbatim couple hundred miles too far SE but that is ok at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It looks terrible. The SLP is going to exit near the SC coast. It pushes off the coast about he same spot as Gfs, maybe a little South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM actually hugs to the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Ovrall like the look of the GS, set up looks good, cold air in place, WAR in place, verbatim couple hundred miles too far SE but that is ok at this point. Again, what reasoning do you have for this to come further NW? You physically can not bring it NW with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM is gonna be a decent hit again, can't tell how good, but it's really tucked so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM has the low about 50 miles off south jersey shore 105hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Anytime models indicate a system in March being suppressed by a PV vort or strong high you need to be wary, because in general the later you get in the winter the less likely that sort of thing happens. March 2014 was a rarity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM crushes Long Island from I can tell so far lol.. Surprise suprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Again, what reasoning do you have for this to come further NW? You physically can not bring it NW with this setup. The way it`s able to come N is because you have a ridge axis all the way through Boise . It argues for Height falls on the EC if it was clear of any confluence . Below is yesterdays 120 vs today`s 96 . As you release the confluence ( if the vortex eases ) there is HP too your E that would force it NE Look at what is in front of this at hour 90 . The argument has been how well modeled is the vortex and the WAR This change is only over 24 hours . That is very close . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM has a 987 just southeast of jersey.. I wish this had more support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM is a borderline Hecs for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Anytime models indicate a system in March being suppressed by a PV vort or strong high you need to be wary, because in general the later you get in the winter the less likely that sort of thing happens. March 2014 was a rarity It's not really being suppressed by that. I think it's a simple case of the trailing shortwave not giving the system room to amplify enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 South and central jersey, through NYC, LI, and SNE are 12-18" and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM is a borderline Hecs for NYC and LI. In reality that precip field would never verify with a cold core system. Just guessing, but the GGEM probably tries to make this partially warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM is a borderline Hecs for NYC and LI. It's not borderline, it would be a HECS.. For anyone from south jersey up to NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GGEM rocksteady over past several days, and all other models have been coming towards it over past 24 hours. GFS didnt have a hint of a storm 36 ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 In reality, the precip field would be much more expansive on the N & W side of the low track. The GGEM thinks this is tropical. Let us not forget, it's an outlier, and it's the GGEM. Both of which suggests it should be tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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