UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 06z Gfs was further north and has a better developed L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 stay tuned in today this looks sweet from here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_f072_us.html 6Z GFS check it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 06Z GFS continues moving north and closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Navgem 6z has a major winter storm for our area for Friday afternoon! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Apparently one of the GEFS members has an absolute bomb. 2.75" LE as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would the warm waters off the coast help the system explode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Would the warm waters off the coast help the system explode?theyre really not that warm anymore. They are at its coldest at this point. But if we get a favorable track this could really produce a foot of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 GEFS REFORECAST PROJECT http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/html/mslp_f120_us.html Just Maybe.... Friday 7:00pm EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Some GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Some GEFS members gfs model is garbage I swear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 gfs model is garbage I swear Why lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Navgem 6z has a major winter storm for our area for Friday afternoon! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Navgem is still a bit south for a MECS.... It's about .50-.75 LE snow Good overnight trend on a few models and ensembles... I want the euro on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 There could be some stronger convection tomorrow night. PWATS approach 1" and the 12z NAM even has a few hundred J/KG of SBCAPE. We also have a strengthening LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like chances increasing for a good storm late this week....NAM looks tasty.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like chances increasing for a good storm late this week....NAM looks tasty.... The NAM is flat as a pancake. Positively tilted trough means exit stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The NAM is flat as a pancake. Positively tilted trough means exit stage right. nam 12k looks great honestly if it trends another 50-75 miles north were in a for a SECS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 With the low position and the wall of a Western Atlantic Ridge off shore...seems like a pretty good position to be in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 nam 12k looks great honestly if it trends another 50-75 miles north were in a for a SECS Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The high is pushing away. Good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 This to me looks a bit like February 22 2008. Basically the storm was along the gulf but the precip field made it up here. The set up was very flat as well. Ended up with 9 in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just remember that the NAM is almost always too far NW with systems at 84 hours. I think we're going to see a lot of windshield wipers over the next 2-3 days, but this system favors the Delmarva, SNJ and far E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Let's not forget the nam had 4-8" of snow for many of us before last weeks rain storm... Even 24hrs out, it was too far NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Just remember that the NAM is almost always too far NW with systems at 84 hours. I think we're going to see a lot of windshield wipers over the next 2-3 days, but this system favors the Delmarva, SNJ and far E LI. Yes if the high to the north is stubborn to lift out in time. We need the help from the WAR and the ridge out west to hold strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Yes if the high to the north is stubborn to lift out in time. We need the help from the WAR and the ridge out west to hold strong. You have a system that's diving Southeast and a positively tilted trough, that's a recipe for suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not sure what you guys praising the Nam at 84 are seeing exactly. You have a very positively tilted trough and the northern slp is about to hand off its energy to the southern slp which mind you is quite far south. See the GEFS 6z between 96 and 102...low transfers SE in just 6 hours. NAM is just a bit faster...probably a function of the 'kicker' moving things along. Not a good look IMO at 84 on the 12z Nam. And regarding the 12k version, its usually over generous with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Looks like chances increasing for a good storm late this week....NAM looks tasty.... That's a bad look actually. Look at how the trough is oriented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That's a bad look actually. Look at how the trough is oriented Exactly. What amazes me is that some of our more seasoned posters still make these mistakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Exactly. What amazes me is that some of our more seasoned posters still make these mistakes. That's what happens when people don't look at vort, 850s, 500 etc and only precip depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The GFS is almost an inch of rain N & W tomorrow night. LLJ blows up just a few hours late for a more prolific event. Decent instability as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 That's what happens when people don't look at vort, 850s, 500 etc and only precip depiction The GFS at least has a very sharp shortwave so it's going to counter act the positively tilted trough to an extent. That's partially why I think this still has a chance. The Euro is much flatter however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 The GFS is a tick further Northeast through Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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