MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The Ukie is not even a flurry or raindrop here. If the Euro shows the same, CMC is an extreme outlier. The EPS mean went way east from the previous run, and the GFS is nada. I would not be surprised to see the op Euro go further east than 0z. We will know shortly... Its way east because of some members out to sea. Why would you not be surprised? Ee know you hate snow but every solution is on the table now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ukie has been great this winter. Its verification scores just behind the Euro. It was very far to the east though with the blizzard til around 72 hours out so I wouldn't be overly concerned if its remaining east of the ECMWF for the time being Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Euro cuts first storm through western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs ftw? Very flat on the euro. Can this be another gfs defeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Euros going OTS IMO, already almost 100 miles off Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Euros way OTS nobody sees squat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Remember treat this like its one of the ensembles for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Buying into a model solution 5 days out should be discontinued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm confused... I'm one of the biggest weenies here... But are we really calling the euro trash, and saying toss it.. When the only model currently even showing a storm is the GGEM? instead of 1 liners about how bad the model is would someone like to elaborate on why it should be tossed, along with the ukie, Gfs, gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 I'm confused... I'm one of the biggest weenies here... But are we really calling the euro trash, and saying toss it.. When the only model currently even showing a storm is the GGEM? instead of 1 liners about how bad the model is would someone like to elaborate on why it should be tossed, along with the ukie, Gfs, gefs They are mad that it caved to the Euro and UKMET after having some snowy runs the last few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 They are mad that it caved to the Euro and UKMET after having some snowy runs the last few cycles.The Canadian is notorious for overamping lows and creating fantasy cyclones. It is now on its own even showing a storm here. The GFS, Euro and Ukmet have nothing at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The Canadian is notorious for overamping lows and creating fantasy cyclones. It is now on its own even showing a storm. The GFS, Euro and Ukmet have nothing at all But the previous 2 Euro runs showed the snowstorm hitting us, so it hasn't been only the Canadian. Now the Euro flipped, but who knows it could go back to the snowstorm solution tonight. This winter we've seen storms that looked like snowstorms at 5 days away quickly trend to lake cutters. Things change quickly and this isn't over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 But the previous 2 Euro runs showed the snowstorm hitting us, so it hasn't been only the Canadian. Now the Euro flipped, but who knows it could go back to the snowstorm solution tonight. This winter we've seen storms that looked like snowstorms at 5 days away quickly trend to lake cutters. Things change quickly and this isn't over! It isnt over. We have seen swings really close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS? Close to op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The Canadian is notorious for overamping lows and creating fantasy cyclones. It is now on its own even showing a storm here. The GFS, Euro and Ukmet have nothing at allThe analysis in here and above are just frightening. There is a good ridge axis through the Rockies N through Boise .This is no over amped low . The resulting look isn't flat because of the WC. In addition there is the potential for another under modeled WAR . The difference between the Canadian and the European is that the vortex is being modeled differently. The harder it presses the more progressive the system is . The system is there , the northward progression will be dependent on its press . Has nothing to do with over amping LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The 12z jma actually came north,while the navgem is so close! ? Jma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 All winter long highs have been weaker than forecast and the ridge in the Atlantic stronger, being 5 days out this isn't over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There must be a few decent hits in the Euro ensembles, correct? Hard to believe it flipped to the point of all misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There must be a few decent hits in the Euro ensembles, correct? Hard to believe it flipped to the point of all misses.The EPS is almost identical to the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There must be a few decent hits in the Euro ensembles, correct? Hard to believe it flipped to the point of all misses. If the vortex press is that deep it will miss. You need the WAR to help create resistance to help squeeze this N. If those 2 features are modeled correctly at 12z then it's OTS. But it's 120 hours out so I would wait to see what this looks like in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 ? Jma Navgem and JMA are almost identical to euro....writings on the wall for this one IMO, it can def change, but we would need to see a major flip flop in ALOT of model guidance in the next couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looking at the 12z jma, at hour 144, compared to last run its north. It actually Looks further offshore to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Weird, I was using tropical tidbits, I might of had wrong model run.Tropical tidbits only Loads 12z JMA runs, it is further north of yesterday's 12z by a bit...But the JMA runs 4 times a day, and it's south of the 06z run.. Which is what I was looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That would explain it! Ok thanks, I stand corrected. Yea JMA is weird on TTB, loads in huge time frame gaps, and only does 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There must be a few decent hits in the Euro ensembles, correct? Hard to believe it flipped to the point of all misses. There's a few good hits and a couple big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There's a few good hits and a couple big hits. Yes thank you. Obviously snowman19 misunderstood what I was asking. I know the EPS is similar to the OP, but when looking at all the individual members I figured there still had to be some hits in there. There's definitely a possibility that the 0z OP run could go back to showing a hit, like some of the 12z ensemble members are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Eps continues with the torch next week! We pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Did storm #1 Come way east on gfs? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 At hour 138, low shifted quite a bit north. North of what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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