bluewave Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 This potential should come down to how fast the trough goes negative tilt. The Euro brings the storm closer to the area as the southern stream ejects fast enough for the trough to go negative tilt. The UKMET which has been the most amplified with recent storms holds the southern stream back so the storm gets suppressed. Kind of odd since that's what sometimes happens with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS moved the mean track further east Still several days to figure this out. Gfs doesnt have anything .Going to come down to the ridging out west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Still several days to figure this out. Gfs doesnt have anything .Going to come down to the ridging out west .I don't usually use the dgex unless I'm looking for a red flag so I found it odd that it has a huge sprawling HP over the Southeast with nary a reflection of any storm at the end of the week. Dgex is generally amped up with these systems. Otoh, the usually progressive navgem at 0z had the storm impacting the coast, so go figure. End result.....inconclusive and a lower than average confidence forecast period coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't usually use the dgex unless I'm looking for a red flag so I found it odd that it has a huge sprawling HP over the Southeast with nary a reflection of any storm at the end of the week. Dgex is generally amped up with these systems. Otoh, the usually progressive navgem at 0z had the storm impacting the coast, so go figure. End result.....inconclusive and a lower than average confidence forecast period coming up. Lets hope we all cash in because this looks to be it for the so called winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Lets hope we all cash in because this looks to be it for the so called winter. meh...I won't close the book on this season until mid April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 meh...I won't close the book on this season until mid April...This. The way this winter has gone I would not be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Still several days to figure this out. Gfs doesnt have anything .Going to come down to the ridging out west .Hope and pray this final event works out because that will be it for this winter. Around 3/10 and after, we blowtorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Hope and pray this final event works out because that will be it for this winter. Around 3/10 and after, we blowtorch We already know we flip. However by the time we do the damage may have been done for the city and the coast. Keep the posts about winters over in banter. This thread is for the 5th only. Both the Canadian and EURO neg tilt this at 120 . The Euro ridge axis through the Rockies is exactly what you want to see , now if the ridging off the EC can stand it's ground SLP has nowhere to go but the BM. But it has to hold . Right now the euro thinks it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 This potential should come down to how fast the trough goes negative tilt. The Euro brings the storm closer to the area as the southern stream ejects fast enough for the trough to go negative tilt. The UKMET which has been the most amplified with recent storms holds the southern stream back so the storm gets suppressed. Kind of odd since that's what sometimes happens with the Euro. 144.gif Euro.gif The UKMET is always amped on storms that run inland, it tends to be very flat though on systems that track along or off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs is out to lunch IMO, it has no other support with the 2 low Scenario, first storm cuts, second storms a coastal, just depends on where, based off getting the ridge to hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs is out to lunch IMO, it has no other support with the 2 low Scenario, first storm cuts, second storms a coastal, just depends on where, based off getting the ridge to hold Ukie was also showing the 2 low situation until 0z and backed off. Nam is now west and north. You have to go up to Caribou for a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS still has nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs is more like a front, slight trend toward a single low cutter, no second low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GGEM cuts first storm as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Second storm seems a bit further north at hr 123, I think this will be closer to coast compared to last nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Parts of NE would see 24+ of GGEM was correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Exits right or up the coast? Heads NE off coast, close to a benchmark track, another 100 miles west and we're getting a blizzard per GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GGEM looks really nice, just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 4-8 from LHV south and east to NYC, more as you head into LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Coastal SNE gets crushed on the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Coastal SNE gets crushed on the GGEM Edit: most of NE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z model mayhem with the UKMET showing nada. I sure hope the 12z Euro holds serve and doesn't back off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 CMC is more northwest of 0z. GFS still has nothing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS/Ukie doesn't even have a hint of a storm....rarely do u c that much a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z model mayhem with the UKMET showing nada. I sure hope the 12z Euro holds serve and doesn't back off. GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif Ukie has a low at 144 down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z model mayhem with the UKMET showing nada. I sure hope the 12z Euro holds serve and doesn't back off. GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif I remember in the past that the Ukie use to struggle with east coast storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 28, 2016 Author Share Posted February 28, 2016 I remember in the past that the Ukie use to struggle with east coast storms. It can be too far SE with these coastal storms. So I am hoping that this is another case. But the spread on the models with the southern stream turning the corner or getting suppressed is pretty large for something 5-6 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I remember in the past that the Ukie use to struggle with east coast storms. Ukie has been great this winter. Its verification scores just behind the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ukie has been great this winter. Its verification scores just behind the Euro.The Ukie is not even a flurry or raindrop here. If the Euro shows the same, CMC is an extreme outlier. The EPS mean went way east from the previous run, and the GFS is nada. I would not be surprised to see the op Euro go further east than 0z. We will know shortly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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