bluewave Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Storm potential for the start of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would research if I had the time but of those MJO 8 dates you posted, which of those occurred in El Nino years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would research if I had the time but of those MJO 8 dates you posted, which of those occurred in El Nino years? 1992, 2003, 2005, 2015 weak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 1992, 2003, 2005, 2015 weak... We had at least 2 good ones in 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 1992 had no blocking before the two last minute storms...I think the other years had blocking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro goes crazy with the block and west base neg nao for the 1st week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z GFS says interior snow next week. Must resist falling for it..... Must resist the trap.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z GFS says interior snow next week. Must resist falling for it..... Must resist the trap.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Last night he euro was a big storm for Tuesday as well.... I refuse to even entertain it till next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12Z GFS says interior snow next week. Must resist falling for it..... Must resist the trap.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk A good call, I was also going to warn any addicts like myself that the 12Z GFS snow map for next Wednesday/Thursday shows a solid 18 inches in the HV and they shouldn't pay attention like I did. I also then reminded myself that if all of the long range GFS snow maps came to fruition this year, the HV would be approaching 300 inches of snow for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 REX BLOCK VERY nice set-up for an East Coast Storm..... if this guidance can hold water big signal http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f216_us.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Weeklies are pretty tasty week 2-3 for a snow event in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 0z GFS says she cuts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 0z GFS says she cuts west. I have a hard time believing this cuts west with a negative AO and MJO in favorable position. Mets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We are going to need good timing and luck next month in order to get a real snowstorm regardless if we are in MJO Phase 8 - the AO does not look as strong in the Negative stage moving forward as advertised the last few days and the NAO will remain positive looking at the link below and even the PNA is forecasted to decline towards neutral - looks like a progressive pattern - cold shots - warm ups a lot of volatility - plus an increasing sun angle http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 We are going to need good timing and luck next month in order to get a real snowstorm regardless if we are in MJO Phase 8 - the AO does not look as strong in the Negative stage moving forward as advertised the last few days and the NAO will remain positive looking at the link below and even the PNA is forecasted to decline towards neutral - looks like a progressive pattern - cold shots - warm ups a lot of volatility - plus an increasing sun angle http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif Plus without blocking, storms run the risk of going through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Almost time to pack it in. Might as well get some warmth in here. Really close. The models don't have a sustained period of colder weather. Everything has to be timed right for a big storm in this upcoming pattern. I do think we see some more snow, I do not think we will see a big snowstorm again this winter. Winter should break around mid to late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Almost time to pack it in. Might as well get some warmth in here. There's no cold air anywhere at this point. This weekend was modeled to be cold now it's average at best and we have yet another warmup 2/29-3/2. Despite some favorable indices next few weeks, doesn't look like we're going to see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's funny how quickly this went downhill. The models were showing a big arctic front coming through Sunday, and staying cold next week. So cold that they were showing the storm track suppressed to the south. Then in just 1 day they made a huge switch to warmth and cutters. You just can't believe anything the models show for a week away! Very frustrating hobby sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any storm potential at this point forward looks to be a rain threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any storm potential at this point forward looks to be a rain threat Right now it is but we are talking 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gfs says 3-5" of rain in the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f240_us.html lets go big or go home..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Gfs says 3-5" of rain in the next 10 days March 1983 (82-83 big nino) was mild and wet, at this point that could be a good analog for this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f240_us.html lets go big or go home..... Euro has an overunning snow event for much of the northeast for March 3 event. Para is similiar. GFS cuts it way inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If there's strong blocking, the Euro could verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 If there's strong blocking, the Euro could verify. AO is looking better this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro had a good hit for sne at 174. Low goes off snj coast. Overunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro 12Z? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk It's showing snow for southern New England. Don't worry, it's an operational model over 7 days out, by tonight it will show something else completely different that will never verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro 12Z? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Not promising for the NYC area and southward for the 3/3-4 storm. Further north e.g., POU, there's a decent snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Euro 12Z? Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk The end of next week has to be watched to see how the cold air that is right on our doorsteps interacts with the coastal low to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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