cyclone77 Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Looks like the early week setup crapped in the weeds. As pointed out before there just isn't enough amplification to really do much of anything. Seems a waste of some really nice jet energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Looks like the early week setup crapped in the weeds. As pointed out before there just isn't enough amplification to really do much of anything. Seems a waste of some really nice jet energy. I'd give this one time before bailing. The potential is there still just a lot of moving parts between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 GFS has definitely trended less amplified, which makes all the difference as the best dynamics are relegated far north instead of farther south over more of the region. The other ingredients are still in place should the wave trend back toward being more amplified but not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 zzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2016 Share Posted October 16, 2016 Just noticed there were 2 EF0 tornadoes in the South Bend area on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichiganLion Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Currently a robust super-cell storm with a tornadic signature in extreme SE Indiana. Whole lot of lightning, and also looks like a pretty strong hail producer. It hasn't been a great severe weather year in the Cincinnati metro, so this might end up as Cincinnati's "best" storm of 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Good general t storm here at 6:30 p.m. with pink lightning and heavy rain. Not much wind though. Interesting cells in se IN as was mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Fox19 just said they just got a report that the tornado warned storm dropped 3" hail in Aberdeen IN which is just southwest of Rising Sun. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 639 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2016 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0630 PM HAIL ABERDEEN 38.91N 84.99W 10/19/2016 E3.00 INCH OHIO IN LAW ENFORCEMENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Impressive supercell structure about ready to cross the Ohio River into Clermont County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 The Marginal risk in MO/KS has now been extended by the SPC to include most of central IL (5% for wind in IL--better chances for hail in MO/KS). http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html And although this straddles the "border" between this subforum and Central/Western, SPC is not ruling out upgrading north-central and west-central MO to a Slight risk in the next outlook: ...KS/MO/IL... THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS...WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS PRESENT FROM KS/NORTHEAST OK INTO MO/IL WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING OVER THIS AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF AFTERNOON MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. DUE TO THE SUBTLE FORCING MECHANISMS...CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INTENSE CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND WEST-CENTRAL MO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK AT 20Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Central IL now upgraded to slight risk of svr by SPC for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted November 2, 2016 Author Share Posted November 2, 2016 18 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Central IL now upgraded to slight risk of svr by SPC for this evening. SVR warning for SE Knox County until 3:45--and the cell that prompted the warning might clip at least the north side of PIA if it holds its track: SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 328 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016 ILC095-022045- /O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0137.000000T0000Z-161102T2045Z/ KNOX- 328 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTY... AT 327 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER MAQUON...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALESBURG...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... YATES CITY...WILLIAMSFIELD...MAQUON...GILSON AND DAHINDA. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 55 AND 67. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Nice storm here lots of CG's and load boomers I'm under a warning now looks almost like a loose meso system forming on radar and the head is over/a few miles west me....you can even make it out visually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 nothing here on the NW side but OURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 417 PM...NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED TO BE COVERING THE GROUND NEAR PEORIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...HEAVY ENOUGH TO REQUIRE SNOW PLOWS TO CLEAR IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Svr squall line capable of tornadoes and straight line wind damage moving at present across central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 37 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Svr squall line capable of tornadoes and straight line wind damage moving at present across central IL. Still is. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 559 PM CDT WED NOV 2 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 558 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BOTH BRIEF TORNADOES AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MONTICELLO TO DALTON CITY TO NEAR ASSUMPTION...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SMALL CIRCULATIONS WERE OBSERVED JUST NORTH OF DALTON CITY AND ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CISCO. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS...AND VEHICLES. * THESE DANGEROUS STORMS WILL BE NEAR... MONTICELLO AROUND 610 PM CDT. BETHANY AROUND 615 PM CDT. BEMENT AROUND 620 PM CDT. LOVINGTON AROUND 630 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE TORNADIC STORMS INCLUDE MILMINE... LA PLACE...LAKE CITY AND HERVEY CITY. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 159 AND 166. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 Pretty eventful start to November (nice shelf cloud) sirens were going off and power was out..probably 65 to 70mph for a brief timeSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 The Fridayish time period may be the last best chance for any severe possibilities in our subforum. Fairly good agreement on a low wrapping up as it heads through the Great Lakes with some Gulf moisture feed. Maybe it's been so boring that I'm imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 10 hours ago, IWXwx said: The Fridayish time period may be the last best chance for any severe possibilities in our subforum. Fairly good agreement on a low wrapping up as it heads through the Great Lakes with some Gulf moisture feed. Maybe it's been so boring that I'm imagining things. Been wondering the same thing myself. Close out the fall svr season then hope for thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 On 11/12/2016 at 5:14 PM, Indystorm said: Been wondering the same thing myself. Close out the fall svr season then hope for thundersnow. IND is kind of seeing the same thing we are Joe, discussing the possibility of a squall line with the frontal passage Friday evening in their afternoon discussion. It may not be spinners, but after this boring stretch, even a little wind would be exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 Would like to see better moisture return for the late week system. Can't rule out an isolated severe storm but I'm not expecting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 15, 2016 Share Posted November 15, 2016 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Would like to see better moisture return for the late week system. Can't rule out an isolated severe storm but I'm not expecting much. Yeah, when I first posted about this, I thought the Gulf feed would be better. I'm still not ruling out a squall line with some severe gusts, especially across Southern IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 17, 2016 Share Posted November 17, 2016 Tomorrow perhaps looks a smidge better than earlier. Granted we are talking about going from a 1 to like a 1.5 or 2 on my excitement scale from 1-10. Instability is really lacking but it seems like it ticked up slightly. Thunder may even be hard to come by but we have seen these setups that still manage to produce gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: Tomorrow perhaps looks a smidge better than earlier. Granted we are talking about going from a 1 to like a 1.5 or 2 on my excitement scale from 1-10. Instability is really lacking but it seems like it ticked up slightly. Thunder may even be hard to come by but we have seen these setups that still manage to produce gusty winds. I'd have to do some digging, but I remember several instances of similar fall systems with no thunder/instability, but still getting some damaging wind reports. Would not be surprised if that's the case tomorrow. Looks like central IN/IL may have a little CAPE to work with though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 12 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I'd have to do some digging, but I remember several instances of similar fall systems with no thunder/instability, but still getting some damaging wind reports. Would not be surprised if that's the case tomorrow. Looks like central IN/IL may have a little CAPE to work with though. American models were too cool with temps today. Will have to watch to see if a similar thing happens tomorrow as it would have implications on CAPE but it may be more difficult to significantly overachieve with more clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Interesting that SPC has a marginal risk this Nov. 18 all the way up to Chicago with 2% tor and 5% wind probs. Low 70's with mid 50 dews here in Indy area. Storms are increasing in intensity over St. Louis and central Il area and 2000z update will help clarify matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 The Storm Prediction Center is considering a slight risk for portions of Indiana and Illinois. Damaging winds the main risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 We now have a slight risk for damaging winds across Eastern Illinois and Western Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 73/57 and partly cloudy here at present. May be enough to get a few good wind gusts out of this when it arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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