cyclone77 Posted September 20, 2016 Share Posted September 20, 2016 Setup ended up being a disappointment. Was really close to being pretty decent for September. Was fun to forecast the past few days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 That cell northwest of Waterloo looks to be rotating very nicely in the mid-levels. Unfortunately it's between radars so can't see down low. Hopefully there's some spotters on it. EDIT: Tor warned now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 21, 2016 Share Posted September 21, 2016 Confirmed tornado reported west of Marble Rock Iowa. This big cell is moving east-southeast towards some decent population centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Ended up with 3 tornado reports. Mostly weak/brief touchdowns. Real story ended up being the extreme rainfall from repeated thunderstorms over the same areas. Over 8" according to radar estimates north of Waterloo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Radar estimates: There may have been 9.6" north of Waterloo, IA. Around 7.6" near Chippewa Falls, WI. 8.2" maximum on the northwest side of the Twin Cities. 2.30" just north of downtown Minneapolis. Some amounts of 5" near I90-I39 split in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Heavy rains continue across northern/northeastern IA this morning. Could be some big time flooding on some of the rivers up that way. EDIT: Actually the updated forecast for the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids is up to nearly 20ft, which is close to the old record that got shattered in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 31 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Heavy rains continue across northern/northeastern IA this morning. Could be some big time flooding on some of the rivers up that way. EDIT: Actually the updated forecast for the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids is up to nearly 20ft, which is close to the old record that got shattered in 2008. Yup, Cesar river at Vinton forecast for major flooding too. I'll include both graphs below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Parts of the Twin Cities metro received over 8" of rain last night. Officially the metro now has 30.1" for the year, on pace for making it the wettest year on record. If we didn't receive another drop of precip thru Dec 31 we would still end the year above normal. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 I was thinking the Cedar River crest would eventually be lowered, as often seems to happen. A couple weeks ago the Turkey River crest in northeast Iowa was overestimated by five feet. Instead, the crest at Cedar Rapids was just UPPED by 5 feet to 24 feet! That would be another bad flood for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 been a heck of a summer for storms from IA north into MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: I was thinking the Cedar River crest would eventually be lowered, as often seems to happen. A couple weeks ago the Turkey River crest in northeast Iowa was overestimated by five feet. Instead, the crest at Cedar Rapids was just UPPED by 5 feet to 24 feet! That would be another bad flood for the city. Here is what often happens 1- heavy rain falls in a basin more then predicted ..crest forecast in underestimated and the river runs ahead of forecast points 2- next crest forecast catches up to the current levels and includes average precip expected for the next 24 hours lets say 2 inches. But of course some places may get 1/2 inch and some places 3.5 inches and quite often the precip misses the basin all together or falls just downstream. This happens often in IA and IL since downstream is south and outflows often cause storms to form south of what as predicted. I pay attention to the IL river crest forecast and the "newest" forecast after a heavy rain event is often lowered due to the predicted precip not falling where it should So in today's case the the new forecast is based on average precip falling upstream over the next 24 hours. I'm not sure what local offices use for that WPC or their local grid forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Well, the WPC just removed the heavy rain previously forecasted for tonight over northern Iowa. If that's what they are going by, the crest could be lowered again. There should be some heavy rain this weekend, but at least all the models now keep the front progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: been a heck of a summer for storms from IA north into MN One Cocorahs observer near Decorah has received 38 inches of rain since June 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 22, 2016 Share Posted September 22, 2016 Singapore like wet season numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Heavy thunderstorms are gushing torrents of rain over the same areas that got drowned last night along and just north of the 20 corridor in northeast Iowa. Looks to continue for the next few hours as well. River stage forecasts probably included forecast rainfall for tonight, but if these storms continue to train over this abused area, then river crest forecasts might end up having to be adjusted upward yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... BUTLER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHERN CERRO GORDO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA... BREMER COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 515 AM CDT. * AT 1117 PM CDT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IMPACTING THE AREAS OF NORTHEAST IOWA THAT SAW EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS LAST NIGHT. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. RAINS FROM STORMS TONIGHT WILL ONLY AID TO PROLONG OR EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...THE LEVEE ON THE SHELL ROCK RIVER IN CLARKSVILLE HAS FAILED AND EVACUATIONS ARE UNDERWAY IN THE TOWN. TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT FROM THESE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 Over 8" fell per radar southwest of Vinton IA since last evening. 7-9" fell just west of the Field of Dreams along 20. Another large swath of 4-6" rains fell between Mason City and Des Moines. The updated river forecasts this morning should be interesting/scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted September 23, 2016 Share Posted September 23, 2016 From the evening of Wednesday June 11, 2008: IAC031-103-113-121449- /O.CON.KDVN.FL.W.0140.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /CIDI4.3.ER.080609T0250Z.080613T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 950 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2008 ...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE... THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR RAPIDS. * UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. * AT 8:40 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET...AND RISING. * RECORD FLOODING IS OCCURRING. * FLOOD STAGE IS 12 FEET. * FORECAST...RISE TO 24.7 FEET FRIDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN FALLING. * IMPACT...AT 24 FEET...WATER REACHES THE BOTTOM OF THE 1ST AVENUE BRIDGE DECK IN DOWNTOWN CEDAR RAPIDS. We know how things turned out... The deluge on Thursday June 12, 2008 made for the 31.12 crest on the Cedar River on the morning of Friday June 13, 2008. I highly doubt things will get THAT bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 Next Monday-Tuesday has caught my eye. Still a long ways off, but the overall synoptic setup looks favorable for a decent late-season event somewhere. GFS tends to agree, and is quicker than the Euro to evolve the system at this point. Both show a powerhouse mid-jet of nearly 100kts at H5, with over 100kts in the upper levels as well. Down low, the 850s strengthen to between 50-65kts on the new Euro. Not too shabby. GFS strengthens the system much quicker, posing a decent severe threat for Iowa/Missouri Monday, and then further east towards MI/OH Tuesday. Euro evolves things slower, and has the main threat on Tuesday in the WI/IL vicinity. This could end up being a very interesting setup for somebody.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Next Monday-Tuesday has caught my eye. Still a long ways off, but the overall synoptic setup looks favorable for a decent late-season event somewhere. GFS tends to agree, and is quicker than the Euro to evolve the system at this point. Both show a powerhouse mid-jet of nearly 100kts at H5, with over 100kts in the upper levels as well. Down low, the 850s strengthen to between 50-65kts on the new Euro. Not too shabby. GFS strengthens the system much quicker, posing a decent severe threat for Iowa/Missouri Monday, and then further east towards MI/OH Tuesday. Euro evolves things slower, and has the main threat on Tuesday in the WI/IL vicinity. This could end up being a very interesting setup for somebody.. I have been watching this one as well. Interestingly enough it looks a bit similar to an event on the same date back in 2007, which is one of the years this fall has followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Long way out but I certainly agree that it's a system to watch. Moisture return also looks pretty good at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Certainly quite an impressive upper level jet making landfall later this week. Not a whole lot to block it from coming eastward either. ...and of course the GFS does not amplify the trough at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Closer to now, marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow for parts of the sub. Depending how the system next week evolves it could be quite an interesting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 12 hours ago, andyhb said: Certainly quite an impressive upper level jet making landfall later this week. Not a whole lot to block it from coming eastward either. ...and of course the GFS does not amplify the trough at all. 06/12z runs back to showing an amplified trough, 12z run would be a pretty significant potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 Well we are moving into the second svr season here in the Midwest so this is something to keep an eye on with upcoming models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 11, 2016 Share Posted October 11, 2016 H5 temps are really warm here. Going to take some fairly substantial warming down low to get appreciable amounts of instability (unless that's being overdone). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 18Z GFS looked much better compared to the 12Z GFS, even gets over 1000 J/KG of CAPE in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 00z GFS slows the system down and brings a pseudo-dryline past the Mississippi River with mid/even upper 60s dews out ahead of it. Don't see stuff like that in this area in the fall very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 It's cliche but we're not going to need a lot of instability for a large severe weather event if anything like the 00z GFS comes to pass. Classic looking fall system with strong dynamics/strong wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 There are some big differences between the GFS and ECMWF regarding the first shortwave. The energy trailing Songda never really amplifies on the ECMWF like it does the GFS. The result is a non-event early in the week. The ECMWF still winds up with interesting storm in the longer range though which is in agreement with the EPS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.