Hoosier Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 Apparently the Midway coop observer's equipment took a lightning strike on Sunday. What are the odds of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 26, 2016 Share Posted July 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Apparently the Midway coop observer's equipment took a lightning strike on Sunday. What are the odds of that? We had lightning take out sensors before here at DTW, mostly due to the fact they are the tallest thing in their area. Basically a lone metal tree in field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 12 and 18Z GFS are showing heat with storms again late in the period with lots of instability. Same downfalls as this last heat event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 27, 2016 Share Posted July 27, 2016 Several T-storm warnings around MPX. One storm is entering the western metro now headed right for Minneapolis. Has a nice core on it and it's intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 There was a tornado warning in northwestern IL earlier. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 334 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 415 PM CDT * AT 334 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BATAVIA... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... BATAVIA AROUND 340 PM CDT. NORTH AURORA AROUND 345 PM CDT. AURORA AND MONTGOMERY AROUND 400 PM CDT. WARRENVILLE AROUND 415 PM CDT. INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE... I-88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 121. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 23, 2016 Share Posted August 23, 2016 Just an average night on the long term GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 27, 2016 Author Share Posted August 27, 2016 I also posted this to start the September general thread, but there's a system that might bear watching for our sub as we enter the first part of Labor Day weekend next Friday-Saturday. From SPC's D4-8 outlook this morning: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016 VALID 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. FROM TUESDAY/DAY 4 TO THURSDAY/DAY 6. A PERSISTENT AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THAT TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE. ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NCNTRL STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE FINER-SCALE DETAILS LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS SUGGESTING PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW. ..BROYLES.. 08/27/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 The system next Fri/Sat looks like it could be one to watch. The timeframe necessitates painting with a broad brush for now but it looks like it has good dynamics/wind fields and it will be working with an airmass that is fairly warm and moist for this time of year. Probably will be a chance before then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The system next Fri/Sat looks like it could be one to watch. The timeframe necessitates painting with a broad brush for now but it looks like it has good dynamics/wind fields and it will be working with an airmass that is fairly warm and moist for this time of year. Probably will be a chance before then as well. This could be the real kicker: Also, according to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical cyclone is expected to develop along the west Mexico coast and track northwest toward Baja California. This system will eventually eject subtropical mid and upper level moisture northeast, enhancing precipitation chances late this upcoming week over the forecast area. The ECMWF appears to handle this system well and generates 1 to 2 inches of rain over the area by the end of the week, so will ramp up showers/storms chances late this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: This could be the real kicker: Also, according to the National Hurricane Center, a tropical cyclone is expected to develop along the west Mexico coast and track northwest toward Baja California. This system will eventually eject subtropical mid and upper level moisture northeast, enhancing precipitation chances late this upcoming week over the forecast area. The ECMWF appears to handle this system well and generates 1 to 2 inches of rain over the area by the end of the week, so will ramp up showers/storms chances late this week. One negative about that type of setup is that it tends to contaminate the warm sector with lackluster lapse rates, thus keeping instability lower than it could be. Just something to watch in the coming days. But as mentioned before, it looks like we could have decent wind fields to work with if model solutions hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 6 hours ago, Hoosier said: One negative about that type of setup is that it tends to contaminate the warm sector with lackluster lapse rates, thus keeping instability lower than it could be. Just something to watch in the coming days. But as mentioned before, it looks like we could have decent wind fields to work with if model solutions hold. Euro shows this exactly, that said it also is much stronger with that system than currently shown. If that system doesn't get drawn into the weekend system the potential goes up considerably with an uncontaminated warm sector and very favorable dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 11 hours ago, Hoosier said: The system next Fri/Sat looks like it could be one to watch. The timeframe necessitates painting with a broad brush for now but it looks like it has good dynamics/wind fields and it will be working with an airmass that is fairly warm and moist for this time of year. Probably will be a chance before then as well. Definitely has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 parts of central/southern IL into Indiana look pretty decent for some tornadoes SPC added a 5% rosk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 cells developing just south of STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 ...MIDWEST... AN MCV AND ATTENDANT WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MO SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS EAST OF THE LOW INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL...EFFECTIVELY SERVING AS A WEAK WARM FRONT WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY TO ITS SOUTH. GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...LIKELY OWING IN PART TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE MCV AND LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A RICHLY MOIST AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SETUP COULD FAVOR A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A TORNADO-DRIVEN SLIGHT RISK WHERE THE POTENTIAL APPEARS GREATEST WHILE EXPANDING LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS A BROADER REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 This setup is reminding me a bit of 8/24, especially the orientation/strength of the low level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 87/79 and clear at Cape Girardeau. 80/72 and cloudy at Lambert St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0237 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN IL TO CNTRL INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091937Z - 092200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND THIS INCLUDES TORNADO POTENTIAL. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ADVANCING NEWD/NWD -- EXTENDING FROM N OF STL TO NE OF EVV AT 19Z. VERY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS EXIST S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS PARTS OF SRN IL/INDIANA. INSOLATION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE HAS ENCOURAGED MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2500 J/KG. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE ADVANCING NEWD/NWD ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL IL/INDIANA IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION -- LOCALLY ENCOURAGED BY MASS FLUXES PERIPHERAL TO A REMNANT MCV ADVANCING ENEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL IL. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/E OF STL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BAND OF CONFLUENT FLOW ARCING S FROM THE PRIMARY MCV. AS ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO THE MCV CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE INCREASINGLY WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE...AND UNCAPPED AIR MASS S OF THE WARM FRONT...ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ILX/LSX VWPS SAMPLE 25-30 KT OF SWLY/WSWLY FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM-AGL LAYER...WHICH IS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS TO ARISE. AS MID-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS CONTINUES TO OVERTAKE THE MCV AND LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...WIND PROFILES COULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...TO OFFER TORNADO POTENTIAL -- PREDOMINANTLY AFTER 22Z. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH THE WARM-FRONTAL ZONE...WHERE LOCALLY BACKED SFC WINDS WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF 200-300 M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH. A TORNADO RISK COULD ACCOMPANY ANY PERSISTENT ROTATING TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH SUCH RISK SPREADING INTO/ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INDIANA THROUGH THE EVENING -- PERHAPS REACHING THE WHITEWATER VALLEY OF E-CNTRL INDIANA BY LATE EVENING. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTH...AND AN ONLY MODEST SFC RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ALOFT...DETRACT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TORNADO RISK TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL/CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AS SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Initation seems to be happening over Central IN SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...DETAILED METEOROLOGICAL REASONING PROVIDED IN PREVIOUS SWOMCD 1666 REMAINS VALID FOR THIS REGION. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SRN/CNTRL IL TO THE E OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO EXHIBITING SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO APPEAR TO BE LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH...BUT A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME INCREASE IN SLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY INCREASE INTO THE 150-200 M2/S2 RANGE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 02Z WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN SFC BASED. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE. ..GLEASON/GUYER.. 09/09/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 10 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Initation seems to be happening over Central IN You mean IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: You mean IL. yeah lol, thats a dumb mistake on my part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Looking like the action is starting to get going... Tornado warning south of Champaign... and Severe Thunderstorm Warning near Nashville, Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ILC019-092345- /O.CON.KILX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-160909T2345Z/ CHAMPAIGN- 622 PM CDT FRI SEP 9 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN CHAMPAIGN COUNTY... AT 621 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER PHILO...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHAMPAIGN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted September 9, 2016 Share Posted September 9, 2016 Tornado Watch issued, dang weather radio scared the bejesus out of me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Two confirmed tornadoes near the IN/IL state line. One over Martinsville, IL. The other very near Fairmount, IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Damn that is some strong damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Confirmed tor over Catlin IL heading east for Danville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Confirmed tor over Tilton IL moving east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted September 10, 2016 Share Posted September 10, 2016 Confirmed tornado over Tilton or basically the south side of Danville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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