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2016 Short/Medium Term Severe Thread


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21 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The HRRR is being pretty generous in popping storms this afternoon in N IL

It tends to be overconvective, that said I do think there is a decent potential of some storms popping, a few already are popping up as we speak.

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5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

It tends to be overconvective, that said I do think there is a decent potential of some storms popping, a few already are popping up as we speak.

Yeah for sure. It pops a big cluster in central IL south of IKK, and I don't really see that happening down there because there's not much forcing at the moment and there's a weak cap. But I do think a line will form along the front and track SE as it moves. Could be some isolated damaging wind gusts

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Yeah, storms are forming now west of Starved Rock down the IL River valley.  Expect things to get active shortly even though forcing has been low. There's even a svr warned storm now near Kirksville MO moving east.

With the powder keg type of environment that's exists in IL, you really don't need a ton of forcing to get things going.

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Good chance at flooding from this. 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC031-250000-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0083.160724T2320Z-160725T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
620 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 620 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER HARWOOD
  HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
           TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHICAGO...EVANSTON...SKOKIE...DES PLAINES...OAK PARK...PARK RIDGE...
  MAYWOOD...MORTON GROVE...FRANKLIN PARK...RIVER FOREST...HARWOOD
  HEIGHTS...ROSEMONT...MONTROSE HARBOR...OHARE AIRPORT...LINCOLN PARK...
  NILES...MELROSE PARK...BELLWOOD...BENSENVILLE AND NORRIDGE.

THE FESTIVAL AT BELMONT AND ELSTON...AND FESTIVAL ON SHEFFIELD IS
INCLUDED IN THIS WARNING!

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
 I-94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 49.
 I-290 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 15.
 I-294 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 37 AND 49.

THIS INCLUDES...  LINCOLN PARK ZOO...LOYOLA UNIVERSITY...TRITON
COLLEGE...NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS UNIVERSITY...NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY...
AND WRIGLEY FIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&
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Apparently there was some quarter size hail a few miles west of here with the initial severe storm that started in Elgin earlier.

This stretch really produced storm wise. Nothing significant, but consistent action. Yesterday featured three shelf clouds (unfortunately didn't have the DSLR handy again) and some nice CG action for a while.

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Still seeing some nice ctg action going south. Constant rumbling and flashing. Not "war of the worlds" but quality. Counted about 4 ctg's in 10seconds at one point.

Yesterday, as ALEK said was ace. Not high end severe but quality as well with storm training deep into the night. I was out closer to the city this weekend suburb east of downtown.

At times, it was unreal while outside for barbeque. Constant sweat. Towards evening,  maybe with mixture of booze but there was a sense of a "nuclear fall out" haze with cicadas buzzing. I wasn't paying attention to any storm development until you noticed all the sweat and moisture going up producing some of the more interesting cloud development packing energy that a 90° high dewpoint summer day can produce. 

Unbearable climo, but real deal summer climo.

 

 

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If there is such a thing as a "reverse bust," it happened last night here in Springfield.  Drought-busting rainfall amounts of about 2-4 inches in a few hours in two separate storms (at 10PM Sunday night then another three hours later), accompanied with very strong winds and dangerous lightning.  Major wind damage among many trees near Washington Park on the west side of the city.  All while we were still under a Marginal Risk for only a 5% wind probability.

http://www.sj-r.com/news/20160725/still-about-900-cwlp-customers-without-power-after-overnight-storms

Interestingly, a mesoscale discussion was issued last night at 6PM for the IL-MO-IA tri-state area, but no further watches or MCD's were issued concerning the storms that later affected central Illinois:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1391.html

WICS-20 (ABC Springfield) news story: http://newschannel20.com/news/local/overnight-storms-leave-major-storm-damage-in-washington-park-07-25-2016

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