cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Looks like you guys are in for an interesting evening up there. Stay safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The southern end of the current line better get its act together otherwise it might be a swing and a miss for the metro. Duluth about to get nailed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted June 25, 2016 Author Share Posted June 25, 2016 Meanwhile, the garden-variety part of these storms caused severe reports in Washington County, IL east of St. Louis. I can see the thunderheads at a distance from here but still clear as a bell--and we desparately need the rain here. NWUS53 KLSX 252154LSRLSXPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO454 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0451 PM HAIL OAKDALE 38.26N 89.50W06/25/2016 E0.25 INCH WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTERPEA SIZED HAIL AND 1-2 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN INOAKDALE ILLINOIS.0451 PM TSTM WND DMG OAKDALE 38.26N 89.50W06/25/2016 WASHINGTON IL TRAINED SPOTTERPEA SIZED HAIL AND 1-2 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN INOAKDALE ILLINOIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 You win some, you lose many. There's a very real chance I won't even see a drop of rain unless things pop between here and the Mankato cell. The amount of lightning in the line from the UP to just north of the TC is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 the most ironic of radar pictures this afternoon. from the MSP tower doppler. it's mother nature taunting us in St Paul (or maybe telling us something more nasty). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 26, 2016 Share Posted June 26, 2016 Currently 93/74 here just north of St Paul. Stifling swampness. Things should really ramp up in the next few hours. We had 95F/74F... my God..i don't know how someone could put up with this like they do in the south. Thank God a nice cool shot is coming down. Dark clouds is about all i'm seeing around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2016 Share Posted July 9, 2016 Next Wed the 13th continues to stand out as a good potential setup for a long-duration severe MCS through the corn belt region. Euro and GFS continue to agree that strong westerlies in the mid and upper levels spread out south of a strong vort which tracks along the US/Canada border region. GFS showing >100kts at 250mb early Wed eve. Rather meager low-level flow, and strong forcing should mean linear MCS mode pretty much from the beginning. Big fly in the ointment will probably come down to the typical conditional setup issue we deal with, with pretty much every setup this time of year lol. The main synoptic setup looks pretty darn sweet though at this point. Hope trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 That's a pretty big Major Corn Soaker in Iowa considering the short-term weather models said it would be dry. Tornado warning about 45 mi SE of Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 19, 2016 Share Posted July 19, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 311 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 345 PM CDT * AT 310 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ALBIA...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 304PM...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED ON THE GROUND ABOUT 4 MILES WEST OF ALBIA. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ALBIA AROUND 345 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE LOVILIA AND ALBIA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 One thing to keep in mind about this potential westward moving complex Thursday night. If it pans out, you would actually be getting the associated thunderstorm winds from an atypical direction...northeast or something with an easterly component. I'm not sure what state it would be in though as it moves farther away from the better shear (will have good instability to work with). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 The 12z NMM and ARW have the complex moving south through WI/MI/IL/IN tomorrow night/Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: The 12z NMM and ARW have the complex moving south through WI/MI/IL/IN tomorrow night/Friday morning. Hell, if it holds together like progged I wouldn't be mad if the temps bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Pretty good model agreement on a nice mcs coming from nothern MI to central and maybe even southern MI areas tomorrow night. It's been quite a while since I have seen one of these decently modeled before it happens, looks like it could have some nice wind gusts and maybe some hail too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 1 hour ago, smoof said: Pretty good model agreement on a nice mcs coming from nothern MI to central and maybe even southern MI areas tomorrow night. It's been quite a while since I have seen one of these decently modeled before it happens, looks like it could have some nice wind gusts and maybe some hail too. Pretty decent instability is expected to hold through the night as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 4K NAM now in agreement showing the line surviving into Indiana and Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Still looking good for later Today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 The models will obviously be useless today with determining the evolution of convection. With some exception to the NMM and ARW, none of them are handling the storms over N. WI very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 New Day 1 expanded south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 The SPC thinks the ongoing MCS over N. WI has some potential to become a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Severe T'storm Watch issued for northern 2/3 of Lower Michigan for ongoing MCS. Should end up being the main show today. Sh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Cell to my west is intensifying and showing better velocities on the last couple scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 takes skill to get missed to the south again even with this kind of setup but we pulled it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Lake county cell warned now. Winds haven't been too impressive here...maybe like 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Severe thunderstorm warning for Goshen/Lagrange (Michiana), seems like 50-60mph might be the max winds, if any winds are reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Coldwater line segment just kind of picked up the past few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Line segment moving southeast towards Northwest Ohio. Looking like more storms developing back in Wisconsin as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 At this rate, this severe weather season's is going to end up worse than 2009 in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 Milwaukee radar is interesting. Can see the severe warned storms in central WI moving southeast and the low level boundary from earlier retreating northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted July 21, 2016 Share Posted July 21, 2016 3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: takes skill to get missed to the south again even with this kind of setup but we pulled it off gonna be difficult to get missed tonight. having terrible luck flying out of ORD lately....leave for SFO just before 4Z tonight. may be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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