Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Like last year, this thread could be a catch-all for discussion of smaller-scale severe threats, and short/medium term (e.g., SPC Day 8 or less) severe weather outlooks for the subforum this season. The major/multi-day severe threats can continue to get their own thread when warranted. Starting off this thread with a Severe Thunderstorm Warning posted by LSX a half-hour ago in the marginal severe threat after another round of through-the-roof unseasonable warmth today: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO618 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...* UNTIL 700 PM CST* AT 617 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONEDELL... MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FESTUS...DE SOTO...PEVELY...CRYSTAL CITY...HERCULANEUM... HILLSBORO...CEDAR HILL...BARNHART...OLYMPIAN VILLAGE...CEDAR HILL LAKES...LONEDELL...HORINE...DITTMER...IMPERIAL...VICTORIA... GRUBVILLE...MAPAVILLE...HEMATITE...MORSE MILL AND FLETCHER.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 IN MISSOURI BETWEEN EXITS 174 AND 185.THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES SANDY CREEK COVERED BRIDGE HISTORIC SITEAND GOV. DUNKLIN`S GRAVE HISTORIC SITE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Just finished posting the initial thread and already the eastern MO storm that prompted the SVR warning has just prompted another warning on the IL side of the Mississippi southeast of the STL metro: BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO646 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...* UNTIL 730 PM CST* AT 646 PM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF BLOOMSDALE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SPARTA...RED BUD...MARISSA...EVANSVILLE...BALDWIN...PRESTON... PRAIRIE DU ROCHER...PRAIRIE...ELLIS GROVE...RUMA...HOUSTON... MAEYSTOWN...FULTS...MODOC...AMES...ROOTS...RENAULT...NEW PALESTINE...CHALFIN BRIDGE AND WALSH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted April 9, 2016 Author Share Posted April 9, 2016 FWIW the latest SPC D2 for tomorrow (Sunday, Apr. 10) does have the Marginal risk extending northeastward to the STL metro: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 PM CDT SAT APR 09 2016 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK AND OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS...MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER PORTIONS OF MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT UPPER MIDWEST. ...TX SOUTH PLAINS/WESTERN NORTH TX TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK... WHILE NEAR-DRYLINE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK THROUGH PEAK HEATING...OWING TO THE LATTER-PERIOD TIMING OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE BUOYANCY BY PEAK HEATING...WITH 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF INITIAL SUPERCELLS. PENDING THE NUMBER OF STORMS/MESOSCALE DETAILS...AN MCS MAY DEVELOP/SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH TX AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN OK SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE PRIMARY RISK. THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY INITIALLY MODEST MOISTURE...AND A DAMAGING WIND RISK IS LARGELY CONTINGENT UPON MCS DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY EVENING. ...NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY... MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...WARM ADVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT/EXPANSION OF EARLY-DAY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS AND MIDDLE MS VALLEY. A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY. SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS INTO MO. SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ..GUYER.. 04/09/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 There were a few land-spouts and cold air funnels in portions of IA/IL/MO yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 FWIW, the SPC issued a MRGL risk for most of Illinois for the threat of damaging winds and large hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 0Z GFS really picked up with more severe threat's in the next 7-8 days. Also FWIW, College of Dupage updated their model viewer, so now you can get precise CAPE without looking at soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Next Wednesday looking like it could be a thread-worthy setup for the sub-forum with everyone else right now focused on the Tuesday event in the Plains (SPC mentioning a significant event is possible in the D4-8). Obviously going to depend on convection on Tuesday itself, along with perhaps some issues with upper level winds backing as shortwave ridging amplifies ahead of the trough. CAPE/moisture on the GFS and Euro looks sufficient as it sits now with fairly strong directional shear in IL Wed afternoon/evening (Euro also had a 55 kt southwesterly LLJ). Certainly something to monitor as we seem to have entered a pretty volatile pattern and I wouldn't be surprised if the next trough following Tues/Wed had some potential to offer to the region as well assuming it doesn't plant itself in the south too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 13, 2016 Share Posted June 13, 2016 Bump for the future. Hasn't been anything thread worthy in a while, and that will likely continue to be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Early next week could get interesting as the ridge starts to break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Monday still looks like it has some potential with some pretty good wind fields in place. Don't know if we will get a risk area on the new outlook or if they will hold off. From a pure imby perspective, one of the concerns would be a slower frontal passage that brings the storms in at a less favorable time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Monday still looks like it has some potential with some pretty good wind fields in place. Don't know if we will get a risk area on the new outlook or if they will hold off. From a pure imby perspective, one of the concerns would be a slower frontal passage that brings the storms in at a less favorable time of day. IMO the timing trends on models looks better than they did a day or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 IMO the timing trends on models looks better than they did a day or two ago Yeah, current timing would be good. Sometimes the models are too quick to break down these big ridges but perhaps that is more of a bias at longer lead times. We are within a few days now. Mid level lapse rates don't look that great so while CAPE is sufficient for severe storms, it doesn't look like one of those 5,000 CAPE days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 relatively garden variety linear mcs on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Saturday appears to be a day to watch for MN/WI. The last few runs of the GFS have the #1 CIPS analog of June 17,2010.....the largest tornado outbreak ever in MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Saturday appears to be a day to watch for MN/WI. The last few runs of the GFS have the #1 CIPS analog of June 17,2010.....the largest tornado outbreak ever in MN. Yeah have been watching this one, the key will be how quickly the system occludes, if it is a bit slower than currently projected things could end up pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Yeah have been watching this one, the key will be how quickly the system occludes, if it is a bit slower than currently projected things could end up pretty impressive. Yep, and as always a lot will depend on how quickly the morning convection gets out of the way. Latest cams have the line racing through pretty quick. We'll need a few hours to destabilize in the afternoon before that happens. Quite the potential though. MPX hitting the wording fairly hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 looks banging in Bo land this weekend and then possible linear MCS for detroit into ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 12z 4K NAM now in agreement with the other cams that the storms will explode in W and C MN as opposed to W WI. Supercells look like a sure bet in W MN and will likely form into a linear line by the time it reaches the TC. So probably more of a wind/hail threat here but should be an active evening tomorrow regardless. Several of the top severe wx days in MN still showing up in the CIPS analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2016 Share Posted June 24, 2016 Day 2 enhanced introduced in MN/WI. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF MN INTO NWRN WI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... STRONG 12HR LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO NWRN ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 70KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES TO A POSITION NEAR INL BY 26/00Z. SRN INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE...AND ASSOCIATED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD EXTEND INTO SRN MN/NWRN WI WHERE DAYTIME BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD AID ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN MN INTO SERN MANITOBA. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL BEFORE PROPAGATING NORTH OF THE BORDER. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE MID-LATE DAY TSTM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR... AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT/LAKE WIND SHIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EARLY-DAY CAPPING SHOULD WEAKEN BY 20-21Z AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY FORM AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 4000 J/KG...AND ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...VERY LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MN INTO NWRN WI TO ACCOUNT FOR 4-6HR WINDOW WHERE THIS IS MOST LIKELY. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER NWRN WI INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI BY EARLY EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT/DRY LINE...MID-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF I-80 BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. ..DARROW.. 06/24/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 85/73 and near full sunshine. Appears rapid destabilization is taking place to the west with MLCAPE around 3-4k. Could be in for a major wind event here in EC MN later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 new SWODY2 is out, and the slight risk has disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 The amount of CAPE up here right now is crazy. Looks like TC will finally see their first severe event in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Watch coming.... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1052 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1250 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MN AND NORTHWEST WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251750Z - 251945Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20Z AND TRACK E/NE ACROSS MN INTO NRN WI. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE NOTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MN WHERE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER HAVE RESULTED IN SLOWER WARMING AND TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 1730Z. REGARDLESS...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WAS NOTED IN 17Z MESOANALYSIS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MCD AREA. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MN TO NEAR FSD IN SD AND ODX IN NEB...WHILE THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NE MN INTO NORTHERN WI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS A FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ENVIRONMENT QUICKLY BECOMES UNCAPPED. AREA VWP/S SHOW MODEST VERTICALLY VEERED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ACROSS SRN/CNTRL MN WITH GREATER LOW LEVEL CURVATURE NEAR THE WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE SELY. SUPERCELLS WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT LEADING TO FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO LINEAR BOWING SEGMENTS. WHILE LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER UPSCALE GROWTH COMMENCES...DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Severe storms will start developing in central MN very soon. MPX/DLH radars show a strong cell around Brainerd. Most likely there will be a severe thunderstorm watch issued for the ENH risk area and some hail/wind reports within in the next 2 hrs (possibly just east of Brainerd). Short-term model predictions show that the cap will break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Severe storms will start developing in central MN very soon. MPX/DLH radars show a strong cell around Brainerd. Most likely there will be a severe thunderstorm watch issued for the ENH risk area and some hail/wind reports within in the next 2 hrs (possibly just east of Brainerd). Short-term model predictions show that the cap will break. They went tornado watch for E. MN/extreme NW WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 90/74 at St. Cloud, MN, with CAPE up to 4500 J/kg. That is some pretty serious humidity and CAPE for the "north woods" part of the country. Also, effective SRH/ 0-3km SRH is about 200 m2/s2, which is definitely helpful for all severe weather threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 Currently 93/74 here just north of St Paul. Stifling swampness. Things should really ramp up in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 yep, just waiting for the last of the cap to go. the cold front as of 20Z is between US 59 and US 71, and advancing east. the storms are starting to fire in Sw MN, just a matter of time now. when they really get going, I expect a severe t-storm watch to go up from the eastern edge of the tornado watch to central WI (douglas/Burnett/Sherbourne/wright/Ishanti/Meeker and to the south/east). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted June 25, 2016 Share Posted June 25, 2016 and right on cue, severe t-storm watch from NW Wi to the Twin Cities Metro, Mankato, and Albert Lea, until 11pm. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0299.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.