kurtstack Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 well gfs mean AO is approaching neutral mar 2-3 so that would be about the same transition period as the blizzard fwiw. Always gotta watch the period when -AO goes to neutral this year. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z para GFS has something for March 3rd. Temps are borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Funny you should say that. I, on the other hand, have been wondering if in rhe next period it would stay too far inland and turn to rain without a High to the north. Lol the track of the low seems to keep it east of us and even if it did come north we would get a ton of snow before a change on the next frame. That cold is pretty good. I think the risk of a fail in the next frame was low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Now I find myself rationalizing why it could happen and I keep going back to how well modeled the HECS was for 9 days. I don't think the models locked on to the blizzard until it was about 6-7 days out, but there had been plenty of hints in the op runs and a strong signal in the ensembles up to that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I don't think the models locked on to the blizzard until it was about 6-7 days out, but there had been plenty of hints in the op runs and a strong signal in the ensembles up to that point.yeah if its gonna be a big one we will know in a couple days. Im just pulling for a grand finale to this winter.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 12z para GFS has something for March 3rd. Temps are borderline. do you think lwx issues watched with the next update? People have to know what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 do you think lwx issues watched with the next update? People have to know what's coming. Nah. The para Euro run has already been posted on twitter. If people haven't stocked up by now, they have no one to blame but themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I don't think the models locked on to the blizzard until it was about 6-7 days out, but there had been plenty of hints in the op runs and a strong signal in the ensembles up to that point. Yep. I remember when WeatherFan202 started the first thread on 14 Jan. It was shut down right away but things were already looking good. Not sure we are there yet with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I just wish the dam thing would happen. I'm so tired of looking at models that give us snow only to get nothing or very little. Blizzard spoiled me while climo has been a kick in the kahoonahs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 There's a 100% chance that a march hecs may or may not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why all you guys pissin n moaning bout winter cancel?! We've had snows into friggin April!! Come on let's have patience here! Kids...geez Sent from my XT1565 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 How could our subforum function without NY and New England posters lecturing us on our climatology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 There's a 100% chance that a march hecs may or may not happen.With math skills like that, no wonder you went into the lending business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why the hell is there not a storm thread yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It's plenty cold enough to snow. That's a pretty much the most important part of a March threat. You missed one better at night to snow than during the day especially between 10am and 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Why the hell is there not a storm thread yet?Call it the 10 day threat.. Update the title daily. It could then be a short term or long term (200+) day threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I just wish the dam thing would happen. I'm so tired of looking at models that give us snow only to get nothing or very little. Blizzard spoiled me while climo has been a kick in the kahoonahs. yea when I was out in LA back in the 80's I looked at models I thought would give me something but I never got anything but there sure was a lot of snow around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 yea when I was out in LA back in the 80's I looked at models I thought would give me something but I never got anything but there sure was a lot of snow around Booger sugar blizzards with LA models does have some appeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 With math skills like that, no wonder you went into the lending business. I'd fund the para euro -apr cash to verify and still feel like I made a profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm hoping for the early month threat. I don't believe in after Mar 5. 2014 was made up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Anyone on to give euro updates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking over the 00Z runs and all I can say is Blahhhh. GEM, GEFS and the EPS all are northern stream dominate with energy running to our north for the most part. The one exception is the EPS that still has the day 9-10 threat with a semi-strong signal but tracks the low from the west over top of us. The look on the 500's though argues for more digging on the troughs part which would put us in the game. Of course we are fighting WAR (Atlantic ridging) so we know how that would probably turn out. And the all important 'Mitch Snowstorm Potential Index' has been lowered once again with an 15 day EPS snowfall mean of 1-1.5 inches for the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Looking over the 00Z runs and all I can say is Blahhhh. GEM, GEFS and the EPS all are northern stream dominate with energy running to our north for the most part. The one exception is the EPS that still has the day 9-10 threat with a semi-strong signal but tracks the low from the west over top of us. The look on the 500's though argues for more digging on the troughs part which would put us in the game. Of course we are fighting WAR (Atlantic ridging) so we know how that would probably turn out. And the all important 'Mitch Snowstorm Potential Index' has been lowered once again with an 15 day EPS snowfall mean of 1-1.5 inches for the 95 corridor. The ensembles from all 3 global models were not impressive at all last night for early March and what remains of this month. Definitely a step back over the last 2 days. The cold has backed off too. We are quickly getting to the point of living on borrowed time climo wise for all of us south of New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm hoping for the early month threat. I don't believe in after Mar 5. 2014 was made up. I'm expecting something big. Around the 15th? In a winter that has produced a total of about a week and a half of legit cold air, it just makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The ensembles from all 3 global models were not impressive at all last night for early March and what remains of this month. Definitely a step back over the last 2 days. The cold has backed off too. We are quickly getting to the point of living on borrowed time climo wise for all of us south of New England There has been very little consistency from the ensembles from run to run so I will hold judgement at where we stand for now. Think the models are having issues with the seasonal flip of the pattern so the longer range on the models will be spotty. Would not be surprised whatsoever to see something pop up out of the blue in the mid range. But you are right, we are running out of time especially for the 95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 It is really, really frustrating when with every threat we would cash in if we could get a damn 50/50 to hold. Last night's runs went to crap because of this. For example, look @ 6z GFS @ 180 hrs, that is a decent look in SE Canada, but then it moves out by the time the storm actually comes so we rain. No blocking so nothing keeping it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Eps is now showing the GFS day 10 threat and has a decent look on the 500mb initially then loses it. Ends up pulling the low to our west.The WAR cannot be denied this winter. It sucks. I hope the WAR semi-permanent feature this winter doesn't somoehow evolve into a semi-permanent Bermuda High ridge this summer.....but I have a bad feeling it will based on past summer patterns following a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Love Talk and Slow Jams. I'd be down to host.I just spit my coffee out! Lol, thanks for the chuckle Randy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Omg, I'm hugging the para euro. D10 is historic. Boom.Lock it up! Btw when does the para go operation in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lock it up! Btw when does the para go operation in March? March 8th https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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