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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Funny you should say that. I, on the other hand, have been wondering if in rhe next period it would stay too far inland and turn to rain without a High to the north. Lol

the track of the low seems to keep it east of us and even if it did come north we would get a ton of snow before a change on the next frame. That cold is pretty good. I think the risk of a fail in the next frame was low.
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Now I find myself rationalizing why it could happen and I keep going back to how well modeled the HECS was for 9 days.

 

I don't think the models locked on to the blizzard until it was about 6-7 days out, but there had been plenty of hints in the op runs and a strong signal in the ensembles up to that point. 

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I don't think the models locked on to the blizzard until it was about 6-7 days out, but there had been plenty of hints in the op runs and a strong signal in the ensembles up to that point.

yeah if its gonna be a big one we will know in a couple days. Im just pulling for a grand finale to this winter.

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I don't think the models locked on to the blizzard until it was about 6-7 days out, but there had been plenty of hints in the op runs and a strong signal in the ensembles up to that point.

Yep. I remember when WeatherFan202 started the first thread on 14 Jan. It was shut down right away but things were already looking good. Not sure we are there yet with this one.

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I just wish the dam thing would happen. I'm so tired of looking at models that give us snow only to get nothing or very little. Blizzard spoiled me while climo has been a kick in the kahoonahs.

yea when I was out in LA back in the 80's I looked at models I thought would give me something but I never got anything but there sure was a lot of snow around

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Looking over the 00Z runs and all I can say is Blahhhh. GEM, GEFS and the EPS all are northern stream dominate with energy running to our north for the most part. The one exception is the EPS that still has the day 9-10 threat with a semi-strong signal but tracks the low from the west over top of us. The look on the 500's though argues for more digging on the troughs part which would put us in the game. Of course we are fighting WAR (Atlantic ridging) so we know how that would probably turn out. 

 

And the all important 'Mitch Snowstorm Potential Index' has been lowered once again with an 15 day EPS snowfall mean of 1-1.5 inches for the 95 corridor. :) 

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Looking over the 00Z runs and all I can say is Blahhhh. GEM, GEFS and the EPS all are northern stream dominate with energy running to our north for the most part. The one exception is the EPS that still has the day 9-10 threat with a semi-strong signal but tracks the low from the west over top of us. The look on the 500's though argues for more digging on the troughs part which would put us in the game. Of course we are fighting WAR (Atlantic ridging) so we know how that would probably turn out.

And the all important 'Mitch Snowstorm Potential Index' has been lowered once again with an 15 day EPS snowfall mean of 1-1.5 inches for the 95 corridor. :)

The ensembles from all 3 global models were not impressive at all last night for early March and what remains of this month. Definitely a step back over the last 2 days. The cold has backed off too. We are quickly getting to the point of living on borrowed time climo wise for all of us south of New England
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The ensembles from all 3 global models were not impressive at all last night for early March and what remains of this month. Definitely a step back over the last 2 days. The cold has backed off too. We are quickly getting to the point of living on borrowed time climo wise for all of us south of New England

There has been very little consistency from the ensembles from run to run so I will hold judgement at where we stand for now. Think the models are having issues with the seasonal flip of the pattern so the longer range on the models will be spotty. Would not be surprised whatsoever to see something pop up out of the blue in the mid range. But you are right, we are running out of time especially for the 95 corridor.

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It is really, really frustrating when with every threat we would cash in if we could get a damn 50/50 to hold. Last night's runs went to crap because of this. 

 

For example, look @ 6z GFS @ 180 hrs, that is a decent look in SE Canada, but then it moves out by the time the storm actually comes so we rain. No blocking so nothing keeping it there. 

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Eps is now showing the GFS day 10 threat and has a decent look on the 500mb initially then loses it. Ends up pulling the low to our west.

The WAR cannot be denied this winter. It sucks. I hope the WAR semi-permanent feature this winter doesn't somoehow evolve into a semi-permanent Bermuda High ridge this summer.....but I have a bad feeling it will based on past summer patterns following a strong El Nino.
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