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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Considering that the GEFS just picked up on the 2nd threat on the 00Z run and in 2 runs, or 12 hours since, has basically moved it's impact up by almost a day and a half I am not so sure sweating the details is really worth it. Maybe the EPS when it comes out will have a little better clarity but it is probably enough just to know that at this time there is a possible threat and let the details work out over the coming days.

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The day 10 threat is way too far out to be deciding anything, and don't throw things at me, but I love where the EPS is going towards the end.  The trough is pulling back and the STJ is cutting under.  IF, yes IF, that is true that is a much better setup then the ok but flawed ones we have in the 6-10 day period. 

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The day 10 threat is way too far out to be deciding anything, and don't throw things at me, but I love where the EPS is going towards the end.  The trough is pulling back and the STJ is cutting under.  IF, yes IF, that is true that is a much better setup then the ok but flawed ones we have in the 6-10 day period. 

The ensembles are all over the place in the mid to longer range so the best bet is to give them a few days to settle down to get an idea of where we stand. The end of the run caught my eye as well but it is hard to get excited when they are having issues 5-7 days before hand.

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Bob, may I ask what WAR is?

Thanks

Western atlantic ridge. It's basically shut down our chances at a good track since the blizzard. We managed one event with it in place but the departing airmass was a record setter so we got lucky. Storm still tracked west though.

For us city/burb folks, we aren't getting snow in march without a coastal or underneath track paired with a cold high to the north or northwest.

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