CAPE Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Someone figure out how many miles between where the CMC and Euro think the storm will be on March 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's plenty cold enough to snow. That's a pretty much the most important part of a March threat. often overlooked ingredient for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The March 3rd threat is a miss but by very little it seems to me. Right now we get a few pity wrap around flakes, maybe. I wouldn't put the fork in this one yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The March 3rd threat is a miss but by very little it seems to me. Right now we get a few pity wrap around flakes, maybe. I wouldn't put the fork in this one yet. are you sure, it's only 10 days away. We don't want to wait until the last minute to declare it dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Someone figure out how many miles between where the CMC and Euro think the storm will be on March 3. I don't care where the cmc has it. Gfs is close with big snow just nw. Euro a little suppressed. It's a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I don't care where the cmc has it. Gfs is close with big snow just nw. Euro a little suppressed. It's a threat. Fire up the bus and start the Storm Thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Fire up the bus and start the Storm Thread oh god no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Def a good looking pattern day 9-10....it all depends on how that low in SE Canada @ 180-192 hours acts. That is our cold source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Considering that the GEFS just picked up on the 2nd threat on the 00Z run and in 2 runs, or 12 hours since, has basically moved it's impact up by almost a day and a half I am not so sure sweating the details is really worth it. Maybe the EPS when it comes out will have a little better clarity but it is probably enough just to know that at this time there is a possible threat and let the details work out over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 oh god no Right. No buses or threads till Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Does tomorrow's storm look farther south and east than anyone else expected besides me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Does tomorrow's storm look farther south and east than anyone else expected besides me? yes if instead of thinking it shifted west we instead take the perspective that it shifted really far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Radio show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 By day 8 we are seeing major differences @500 on the EPS from the 00Z run to todays 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Eps is now showing the GFS day 10 threat and has a decent look on the 500mb initially then loses it. Ends up pulling the low to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Eps is now showing the GFS day 10 threat and has a decent look on the 500mb initially then loses it. Ends up pulling the low to our west. That would be a fitting end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Eps is now showing the GFS day 10 threat and has a decent look on the 500mb initially then loses it. Ends up pulling the low to our west. The recurring and annoying WAR has a knack for perfectly sh!tty timing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 <broken record> And the eps snowfall mean didn't budge from 0Z 1.5-2" for DCA/BWI <broken record> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Eps is now showing the GFS day 10 threat and has a decent look on the 500mb initially then loses it. Ends up pulling the low to our west. Pretty much the story of late winter: Wide Left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think people should be looking at week of March 7 to chase something late. And perhaps not til week of 14th. And drive to I-81. The I-81 storm is merely myth and urban legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Pretty much the story of late winter: Wide Left. Not bad if it's cold. But I don't get the sense that is true in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The day 10 threat is way too far out to be deciding anything, and don't throw things at me, but I love where the EPS is going towards the end. The trough is pulling back and the STJ is cutting under. IF, yes IF, that is true that is a much better setup then the ok but flawed ones we have in the 6-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buccos4vr Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The recurring and annoying WAR has a knack for perfectly sh!tty timing this year.Bob, may I ask what WAR is? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The day 10 threat is way too far out to be deciding anything, and don't throw things at me, but I love where the EPS is going towards the end. The trough is pulling back and the STJ is cutting under. IF, yes IF, that is true that is a much better setup then the ok but flawed ones we have in the 6-10 day period. The ensembles are all over the place in the mid to longer range so the best bet is to give them a few days to settle down to get an idea of where we stand. The end of the run caught my eye as well but it is hard to get excited when they are having issues 5-7 days before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 The I-81 storm is merely myth and urban legend. Just wait until tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Not bad if it's cold. But I don't get the sense that is true in this case. Yeah, a good cold high in the ne would have made this weeks storm a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Bob, may I ask what WAR is? Thanks West Atlantic Ridge... Right where the 50/50 low should be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Radio show? Love Talk and Slow Jams. I'd be down to host. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Bob, may I ask what WAR is? Thanks Western atlantic ridge. It's basically shut down our chances at a good track since the blizzard. We managed one event with it in place but the departing airmass was a record setter so we got lucky. Storm still tracked west though. For us city/burb folks, we aren't getting snow in march without a coastal or underneath track paired with a cold high to the north or northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Omg, I'm hugging the para euro. D10 is historic. Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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