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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim. 

I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl     lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288

Yeah but at least the pattern going in "as advertised" is pretty good. Wouldn't take too much adjustment in track for that to be a good storm for the cities/coastal plain.

 

eta- still think there is a chance for something Feb 29 or so, prior to any March 3-4 threat. This run of the GFS doesn't get it done, but its still an interesting look.

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Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim. 

I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl     lol

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288

The pattern he posted looks good and the storm that follows around day 9 has potential.

 

I think I'll use the CPC method for forecasting that storm.  I'll say 33.3% chance it trends better, 33.3% chance it trends worse, 33.3% chance it vanishes.

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Yeah but at least the pattern going in "as advertised" is pretty good. Wouldn't take too much adjustment in track for that to be a good storm for the cities/coastal plain.

That's one way of looking at it. And the other way is that it's just a repeat of February. Add in that climo is even more against us than February and I think what we need to see is a NC snowstorm at this range and not a "close" rainstorm for us and T'Storms for NC.

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Yeah but at least the pattern going in "as advertised" is pretty good. Wouldn't take too much adjustment in track for that to be a good storm for the cities/coastal plain.

 

 

If this was December, and I hadn't heard that at least 10 times this year, I might fall for it...

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Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim.

I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl lol

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288

so now we're taking the rain snow line exactly as shown 10 days out. It's a threat, that doesn't mean it will work out but dismissing it when it's snow 50 miles from you that far out is silly. You get hit by the next one anyways. So if you want to believe the model exactly as is to say you won't get the first threat by the same logic you do get the next one. The 12z gfs just shows the potential that's all and its centered where I feel it should be AFTER the feb 29 system goes by and the pv rotates into a better spot.
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Period around end feb/start march has hinted at quality blocking location. Worth watching.

 

12z gfs op pretty much ends winter after though with blocking breaking down. Though it has a MECS this run in that pattern lol.

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The one weenie part of my brain that holds out any hope rests on the idea that unlike most mod/strong Nino years that had above normal snows, this year is a month behind. What I mean is, the bulk of the mod/strong Nino's that had AN snows produced in December, relaxed some in January, then produced well again in February. We didn't start this year until January, February relaxed, so now there's March left to come. Will this year's March act like a February that produced well during snowy mod/strong Nino's? Like I say, that's the weenie hope.

So Mitch, does that mean we have to wish or hope that the atmosphere knows that are winter started a month late? :)

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so now we're taking the rain snow line exactly as shown 10 days out. It's a threat, that doesn't mean it will work out but dismissing it when it's snow 50 miles from you that far out is silly. You get hit by the next one anyways. So if you want to believe the model exactly as is to say you won't get the first threat by the same logic you do get the next one. The 12z gfs just shows the potential that's all and its centered where I feel it should be AFTER the feb 29 system goes by and the pv rotates into a better spot.

I'm not dismissing it out of hand, merely pointing out that it shows exactly what has happened with every threat in these parts since the blizzard save 18 hours. Thus, not a whole lot of excitement. Everything usually moves north over 10 days so that's why I also posted we need to see a NC snowstorm at this range like we saw on yesterday's 12Z run. I could be wrong, but we're fighting not only climo but a pattern that has been locked in for a month.

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Period around end feb/start march has hinted at quality blocking location. Worth watching.

 

12z gfs op pretty much ends winter after though with blocking breaking down. Though it has a MECS this run in that pattern lol.

This is what I have been interested in. Its a very small window IMO...29th to about the 4th. Not to say it wont work out beyond that, but things look to reshuffle pretty quickly in the blocking dept.

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Period around end feb/start march has hinted at quality blocking location. Worth watching.

 

12z gfs op pretty much ends winter after though with blocking breaking down. Though it has a MECS this run in that pattern lol.

It breaks the blocking down and then has a storm right after.  Not unusual

ETA:  it also keeps doing that in the long range and pushing it back in time so not sure how real the breakdown is

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It breaks the blocking down and then has a storm right after.  Not unusual

ETA:  it also keeps doing that in the long range and pushing it back in time so not sure how real the breakdown is

yeah I guess that's mostly true tho there's a bit of spacing. I liked that period too but I'm not going to be overly wedded to anything at this point. it's going to be tough IMO. I'd think failing is the more likely option than scoring. no reason to punt the first window either.

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How many coastals has this El Nino produced to date?

 

Ian?

got me. I do think we've been pretty Nino-ey since the storm before the blizzard in particular though.. at least as far as regular storminess. arguably prior  too just not in the way we want.

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