mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 image.png Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim. I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim. I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288 Yeah but at least the pattern going in "as advertised" is pretty good. Wouldn't take too much adjustment in track for that to be a good storm for the cities/coastal plain. eta- still think there is a chance for something Feb 29 or so, prior to any March 3-4 threat. This run of the GFS doesn't get it done, but its still an interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim. I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288 The pattern he posted looks good and the storm that follows around day 9 has potential. I think I'll use the CPC method for forecasting that storm. I'll say 33.3% chance it trends better, 33.3% chance it trends worse, 33.3% chance it vanishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yeah but at least the pattern going in "as advertised" is pretty good. Wouldn't take too much adjustment in track for that to be a good storm for the cities/coastal plain. That's one way of looking at it. And the other way is that it's just a repeat of February. Add in that climo is even more against us than February and I think what we need to see is a NC snowstorm at this range and not a "close" rainstorm for us and T'Storms for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Yeah but at least the pattern going in "as advertised" is pretty good. Wouldn't take too much adjustment in track for that to be a good storm for the cities/coastal plain. If this was December, and I hadn't heard that at least 10 times this year, I might fall for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Nothing has changed....it's rain in the cities verbatim. I think we need a new sub-sub-forum......MA 750'+ asl lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016022212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=288 so now we're taking the rain snow line exactly as shown 10 days out. It's a threat, that doesn't mean it will work out but dismissing it when it's snow 50 miles from you that far out is silly. You get hit by the next one anyways. So if you want to believe the model exactly as is to say you won't get the first threat by the same logic you do get the next one. The 12z gfs just shows the potential that's all and its centered where I feel it should be AFTER the feb 29 system goes by and the pv rotates into a better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Period around end feb/start march has hinted at quality blocking location. Worth watching. 12z gfs op pretty much ends winter after though with blocking breaking down. Though it has a MECS this run in that pattern lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The one weenie part of my brain that holds out any hope rests on the idea that unlike most mod/strong Nino years that had above normal snows, this year is a month behind. What I mean is, the bulk of the mod/strong Nino's that had AN snows produced in December, relaxed some in January, then produced well again in February. We didn't start this year until January, February relaxed, so now there's March left to come. Will this year's March act like a February that produced well during snowy mod/strong Nino's? Like I say, that's the weenie hope. So Mitch, does that mean we have to wish or hope that the atmosphere knows that are winter started a month late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 so now we're taking the rain snow line exactly as shown 10 days out. It's a threat, that doesn't mean it will work out but dismissing it when it's snow 50 miles from you that far out is silly. You get hit by the next one anyways. So if you want to believe the model exactly as is to say you won't get the first threat by the same logic you do get the next one. The 12z gfs just shows the potential that's all and its centered where I feel it should be AFTER the feb 29 system goes by and the pv rotates into a better spot. I'm not dismissing it out of hand, merely pointing out that it shows exactly what has happened with every threat in these parts since the blizzard save 18 hours. Thus, not a whole lot of excitement. Everything usually moves north over 10 days so that's why I also posted we need to see a NC snowstorm at this range like we saw on yesterday's 12Z run. I could be wrong, but we're fighting not only climo but a pattern that has been locked in for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Period around end feb/start march has hinted at quality blocking location. Worth watching. 12z gfs op pretty much ends winter after though with blocking breaking down. Though it has a MECS this run in that pattern lol. This is what I have been interested in. Its a very small window IMO...29th to about the 4th. Not to say it wont work out beyond that, but things look to reshuffle pretty quickly in the blocking dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 So Mitch, does that mean we have to wish or hope that the atmosphere knows that are winter started a month late? I guess we do. Hey, I didn't say I believed it, I just mentioned that was the only weenie hope I could muster. Hopefully, magic happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Hopefully, then, the atmosphere in June thinks it's still May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Period around end feb/start march has hinted at quality blocking location. Worth watching. 12z gfs op pretty much ends winter after though with blocking breaking down. Though it has a MECS this run in that pattern lol. It breaks the blocking down and then has a storm right after. Not unusual ETA: it also keeps doing that in the long range and pushing it back in time so not sure how real the breakdown is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It breaks the blocking down and then has a storm right after. Not unusual ETA: it also keeps doing that in the long range and pushing it back in time so not sure how real the breakdown is yeah I guess that's mostly true tho there's a bit of spacing. I liked that period too but I'm not going to be overly wedded to anything at this point. it's going to be tough IMO. I'd think failing is the more likely option than scoring. no reason to punt the first window either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If anyone cares, the CMC has a cutter on the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GFS just dropped the cold west/warm east idea in the long range as fast as Subway dropped Jared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 If anyone cares, the CMC has a cutter on the 3rd. SE crew must have seen something different. they said CMC is a 996 low that cuts across Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GFS just dropped the cold west/warm east idea in the long range as fast as Subway dropped Jared Good one. that is a reason to smile for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 If anyone cares, the CMC has a cutter on the 3rd. That thing is so far west I don't think it even qualifies as a cutter...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 How many coastals has this El Nino produced to date? Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 GFS just dropped the cold west/warm east idea in the long range as fast as Subway dropped Jared yea it was a major move towards the eps idea of developing a stj dominant storm track to our south in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro that good for the March 3rd storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 How many coastals has this El Nino produced to date? Ian? got me. I do think we've been pretty Nino-ey since the storm before the blizzard in particular though.. at least as far as regular storminess. arguably prior too just not in the way we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro that good for the March 3rd storm? fish storm. right where we want it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 fish storm. right where we want it I love the Trademark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro that good for the March 3rd storm? that is far enough away to not care what it shows...I still care but some may not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I think people should be looking at week of March 7 to chase something late. And perhaps not til week of 14th. And drive to I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 fish storm. right where we want it thats probably the best 10 day storm weve seen from euro since the blizzard if we assume the usual 500 mile west correction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 thats probably the best 10 day storm weve seen from euro since the blizzard if we assume the usual 500 mile west correction It's plenty cold enough to snow. That's a pretty much the most important part of a March threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It's plenty cold enough to snow. That's a pretty much the most important part of a March threat. At least for the next six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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