mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 lol. I actually cancelled my subscription a week ago, but it had already renewed so I have it till the 25th I think.I cancelled Accuwx just before it renewed on the 4th and waited to cancel Wxbell that renews on the 2nd of the month, so I'm good until 4/2. Something told me I should hold on to Wxbell. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 06z GFS gives us about the same as 0z. Still stubborn. Not sure if the GFS has the right idea or not. But a weaker low and /or more offshore track is definitely on the table. Even on the EPS there are about a dozen members with that sort of look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I just looked at the eps. Man, I haven't seen that many pinks and purples over mby on the eps since I signed up for Wxbell at the end of January. And the mean is impressive too. Hard not to believe in this one. Oh, and the Control run is better than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I just looked at the eps. Man, I haven't seen that many pinks and purples over mby on the eps since I signed up for Wxbell at the end of January. And the mean is impressive too. Hard not to believe in this one. Oh, and the Control run is better than the operational. Is there a lot of spread? What are the misses showing and what are the "weenie" runs showing? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I just looked at the eps. Man, I haven't seen that many pinks and purples over mby on the eps since I signed up for Wxbell at the end of January. And the mean is impressive too. Hard not to believe in this one. Oh, and the Control run is better than the operational. Wait, whats going on here, you are way too optimistic! lol. How about the members that are basically whiffs, or track too far SE? Doesn't that give you pause? But I agree, in general EPS looking really good as I said in my earlier post. Euro could be a bit overdone though, so caution advised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Is there a lot of spread? What are the misses showing and what are the "weenie" runs showing? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Read up, this has all been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 2 euro ops in a row and increasing eps support at this range is a strong sign that the threat is real. Just outside of laser range. 12z should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I think the way ots tracks are wrong. I just want to see a quick coastal development and deepening because the Ccb is just developing over us so if the secondary transfer is slower at all the really good stuff would end up to our northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Temps are pretty impressive on the euro. The tail end would actually be cold powder at respectable ratios. Temps get into the mid 20's Sunday night. Not only is there a chance at a good pasting but also a fairly significant impact to streets. Heh. March is December again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Man I feel like it's mid winter all over again. Sippin coffee, reading overnight analysis, but it's missing something....Highzenberg!? Summer hibernation already? Anyway, can't wait to see how 12z plays out. Starting to feel real. Last call for all chips in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Temps are pretty impressive on the euro. The tail end would actually be cold powder at respectable ratios. Temps get into the mid 20's Sunday night. Not only is there a chance at a good pasting but also a fairly significant impact to streets. Heh. March is December again. hopefully not this December again or it will be a tropical rain. this will be a hit I can feel it especially since I am out of town. Stupid family crap. I should know better then to plan anything until at least April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Man I feel like it's mid winter all over again. Sippin coffee, reading overnight analysis, but it's missing something....Highzenberg!? Summer hibernation already? Anyway, can't wait to see how 12z plays out. Starting to feel real. Last call for all chips in. Pretty sure I saw him up in the New England thread! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Pretty sure I saw him up in the New England thread! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wonder where Ji? you need all the original characters or the movie is not quite as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 took a glance at the euro.. blah. nice thump of snow for most. stays at or below freezing until 18z Monday, when precip is long gone. qpf .7-.8 for me 1+ for Wes 1.1 in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 2 euro ops in a row and increasing eps support at this range is a strong sign that the threat is real. Just outside of laser range. 12z should be fun.I like that the SV maps have 6" for mby. Unlike what some say/think, snow maps are useful but usually can't be taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Temps are pretty impressive on the euro. The tail end would actually be cold powder at respectable ratios. Temps get into the mid 20's Sunday night. Not only is there a chance at a good pasting but also a fairly significant impact to streets. Heh. March is December again. There is always the threat of winter at any time in DJFM, I argue this every year. Everyone has this idea that it can't snow in March even though historically BWI has gotten more snow in March than December... If this storm does verify though, the one common thing among the last three winters will be that March was better than December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 Could someone with access please post a Euro precip map for the weekend? Or just tell me what it shows for total precip out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Could someone with access please post a Euro precip map for the weekend? Or just tell me what it shows for total precip out this way.You're cold enough for all snow and the maps have you around 4-6" range.EDIT: qpf around .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 You're cold enough for all snow and the maps have you around 4-6" range. EDIT: qpf around .5" Thanks Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Could someone with access please post a Euro precip map for the weekend? Or just tell me what it shows for total precip out this way.0z eps likes your area. Solidly in the .5 contour (extends into WV). A cluster of nukes right over you too. Good sign there. Interestingly, the majority of our region has a shot at doing well here. Areas further east where the temps are less favorable benefit from more precip. Not seeing a sharp cutoff to the west on the means. I'm still pretty unsure of the upside for my yard. I suppose 6" would be top end from how I see things. Your upside is probably higher. Seems like getting more than temporary coating is slowly becoming more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 6z GFS shows .5". 00z GGEM shows 1" and 6z NAM shows .5". Pathetic storm and I'd rather have 60f and sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Once again we are faced with a battle between the European and American models. It's like every winter storm. Except it's not going to be winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Once again we are faced with a battle between the European and American models. It's like every winter storm. Except it's not going to be winter.It's pretty easy to hedge the euro + ukie ops and EPS when there is decisive agreement at this range. If the 12z euro holds we are entering laser range.I would say the exact same thing if the solutions were flipped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Team GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 It's pretty easy to hedge the euro + ukie ops and EPS when there is decisive agreement at this range. If the 12z euro holds we are entering laser range. I would say the exact same thing if the solutions were flipped too. We need a "like" or "agree" button on this forum for posts so I can just click it for this post rather than responding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 One interpretation of Euro for my backyard: Morning: Light Rain/snow mix beginning at 7 AM with T of 37 degrees. Temperature steady or slightly falling through morning reaching 36 degrees by noon. Afternoon: Light rain/snow mix changing to moderate snow in early afternoon with temperatures falling to 33 by ~8 PM and to 32 by midnight. Snow tapering off after midnight and ending by 2 AM at which point temperatures will be ~30 degrees. Total precipitation of ~1 inch with about 1/3 of that falling with temperatures of 33 or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 One interpretation of Euro for my backyard: Morning: Light Rain/snow mix beginning at 7 AM with T of 37 degrees. Temperature steady or slightly falling through morning reaching 36 degrees by noon. Afternoon: Light rain/snow mix changing to moderate snow in early afternoon with temperatures falling to 33 by ~8 PM and to 32 by midnight. Snow tapering off after midnight and ending by 2 AM at which point temperatures will be ~30 degrees. Total precipitation of ~1 inch with about 1/3 of that falling with temperatures of 33 or lower. nah, it's better than that definitely .3-.4 falls when you're at or below freezing between hours 96 & 102 because the period ending 96 hrs. has you 31/32 surface temps (hence, everything after 96 hours is snow because surface temps at 102 hrs. are in the upper 20's to 30) the question is how much of the .7"+/- that falls between 90-96 hrs. with surface temps that support snow looking at the temp maps on Wxbell and completely disregarding their snow map of 10" for DCA right up I95 into NE MD (including your back yard), I think the SV snow maps are a decent match so 4" at DCA, 6" at BWI and you somewhere at 5"+ is a good verbatim interpretation of the 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 6z GFS shows .5". 00z GGEM shows 1" and 6z NAM shows .5". Pathetic storm and I'd rather have 60f and sunny. Dude, what are you expecting? 2' with temps in the teens in mid March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 0z eps likes your area. Solidly in the .5 contour (extends into WV). A cluster of nukes right over you too. Good sign there. Interestingly, the majority of our region has a shot at doing well here. Areas further east where the temps are less favorable benefit from more precip. Not seeing a sharp cutoff to the west on the means. I'm still pretty unsure of the upside for my yard. I suppose 6" would be top end from how I see things. Your upside is probably higher. Seems like getting more than temporary coating is slowly becoming more believable. Thanks for the info Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I will say this much, I sure wish this threat had come a week earlier or DST didn't kick in until after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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