Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Most importantly with the eps run is there are a good # of nukes up and down 95 in the mix. That's the big story imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I defInitely wouldn't write it off because of the date. Some are leaning a little too hard there given the setup I think. But the 12z is about best case probably. So... Be a little cautious at least. I'd think 2-4 maybe 3-6 is certainly in reach IMBY in that kind of scenario. 10-12 is nonsense for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I defInitely wouldn't write it off because of the date. Some are leaning a little too hard there given the setup I think. But the 12z is about best case probably. So... Be a little cautious at least. I'd think 2-4 maybe 3-6 is certainly in reach IMBY in that kind of scenario. 10-12 is nonsense for now. Of course it is. 2 to 4 would be big here because of the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Ha, I wasn't saying you were dogging us, I know you wouldn't..but still..I just wanted to be sure because we might as well live at opposite ends of the earth climate wise. I know but when it looks good here and bad for the metros I disappear and hang out with the interior pa crowd. I'm not going to inflict insult to injury in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Of course it is. 2 to 4 would be big here because of the time of year.It's a really good setup in theory. If it wasn't spring id be pretty pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 It's a really good setup in theory. If it wasn't spring id be pretty pumped. Same. I'm interested for sure, but I'm not invested as I would be if this was even 2 weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 3 climo+ in a row so 3 productive March's in a row fits this weird streak we seem to be on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 So what potential timeline are we talking about, here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 According to NE, 18z GFS sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Really like some of the model trends, but won't look too closely on this. Don't wanna bring the negative jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 According to NE, 18z GFS sucks I'm pretty much exclusively hugging the euro and eps on this one. 18z gefs does suck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 According to NE, 18z GFS sucks Only if you were hoping for precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Of course it is. 2 to 4 would be big here because of the time of year. 2 to 4 would be big out here at the end of March. Early March yeah. Late March its a good storm. I dont get the funky precip field on the GFS. It has no northern precip at all really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 2 to 4 would be big out here at the end of March. Early March yeah. Late March its a good storm. I dont get the funky precip field on the GFS. It has no northern precip at all really. when the gfs looks weird and different from the euro it's typically wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Temps might be fine if we get thumped....3/25/14 was 32-34 most of the day and stuck fine on the grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 1st was mid morning and 2nd mid afternoon... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 3/29/42 stuck in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 May 9th 1977 in Boston...sun angle!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Winter's over so it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Anything can still happen right now including very big snows.The true and drastic difference is the next day is 50 with a snow eating sun. 20 degree departures in the afternoon are doable, it's not mid April where -20 won't work. Right now at night we do not even need anthing extreme for it to work. What won't work is moderate snow commencing and continuing from 10am on with a temperature of 35 What is the predicted time of onset and the duration? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Temps might be fine if we get thumped....3/25/14 was 32-34 most of the day and stuck fine on the grass I was going to say something about the March 25 events in both 2013 and 2014, since there have been some comments with regard to accumulating snow and marginal temperatures. I certainly agree that to maximize our chances for something decent to good (for the time of year), we need rates and preferably not have the bulk of it fall mid-day. However, we didn't have the most ideal conditions in 2013 and 2014 for those two 3/25 events, yet where I'm at just immediately NW of the District, I received 4" and 3", respectively, in those years on that day. Even in the UHI hell that is DCA, they got 1.4" and 1.7", respectively. As I recall things, most of the snow on 3-25-2013 fell pre-dawn into mid-morning and it was very close to freezing. We got some light snow/rain/drizzle after about 9AM the remainder of the day, but there was still snow on the ground. For 3-25-2014, it began snowing in the early morning, it did begin to stick even to the paved areas, but then we were fighting time of day though it still remained "white" on the ground. There was another good burst toward late afternoon and evening. Again, marginal temperatures. This event, it seems from what I've looked at, would definitely be more dynamic with more precipitation than the 3/25 snows. Temperatures, however, may be even more marginal, so not sure what to make of it. I'm not expecting a big amount, but if there's an advisory-level 2-4" general snow here Saturday night and Sunday, that would be quite impressive. I guess I'm just saying this because there is a tendency for some to just write off a potential in late March when it can and has happened even with not the greatest boundary layer. Yes, we have to "work at it" a lot more, but if the indications are that it's a real threat, it really shouldn't just be waved off because of the calendar (or because it's a strong Nino, or whatever). Not saying we're getting pummeled or that it won't end up being nothing in the end, but as of now it surely rates as a worthwhile thing to track and take somewhat seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I was going to say something about the March 25 events in both 2013 and 2014, since there have been some comments with regard to accumulating snow and marginal temperatures. I certainly agree that to maximize our chances for something decent to good (for the time of year), we need rates and preferably not have the bulk of it fall mid-day. However, we didn't have the most ideal conditions in 2013 and 2014 for those two 3/25 events, yet where I'm at just immediately NW of the District, I received 4" and 3", respectively, in those years on that day. Even in the UHI hell that is DCA, they got 1.4" and 1.7", respectively. As I recall things, most of the snow on 3-25-2013 fell pre-dawn into mid-morning and it was very close to freezing. We got some light snow/rain/drizzle after about 9AM the remainder of the day, but there was still snow on the ground. For 3-25-2014, it began snowing in the early morning, it did begin to stick even to the paved areas, but then we were fighting time of day though it still remained "white" on the ground. There was another good burst toward late afternoon and evening. Again, marginal temperatures. This event, it seems from what I've looked at, would definitely be more dynamic with more precipitation than the 3/25 snows. Temperatures, however, may be even more marginal, so not sure what to make of it. I'm not expecting a big amount, but if there's an advisory-level 2-4" general snow here Saturday night and Sunday, that would be quite impressive. I guess I'm just saying this because there is a tendency for some to just write off a potential in late March when it can and has happened even with not the greatest boundary layer. Yes, we have to "work at it" a lot more, but if the indications are that it's a real threat, it really shouldn't just be waved off because of the calendar (or because it's a strong Nino, or whatever). Not saying we're getting pummeled or that it won't end up being nothing in the end, but as of now it surely rates as a worthwhile thing to track and take somewhat seriously. 3/25/13 stuck to the streets in old town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 May 9th 1977 in Boston...sun angle!! may77.PNG LOL, I had to do a double-take at that photo. Something looked strange, then I paid more attention to the date you mentioned for that Boston event. I then realized what looked odd was...the GREEN trees in the background!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Last March 20th had 1.2" with .69" liquid at BWI. I could easily see that happening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tstate21 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 LWX finally acknowledging the threat at least with a slight risk for both west and east of the Blue Ridge - http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Although, their forecast discussion doesn't seem too bullish right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 LWX finally acknowledging the threat at least with a slight risk for both west and east of the Blue Ridge - http://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter#wsoutlook Although, their forecast discussion doesn't seem too bullish right now. I don't blame them. The fact that the GFS is not on board gives pause and the whole March thing screams fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 3/25/13 stuck to the streets in old town... I got caked with 4.5" on 3/25/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I don't blame them. The fact that the GFS is not on board gives pause and the whole March thing screams fail. I have to lol at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 I think we're past the range where the euro gets 'too amped' though I'm admittedly not sure if that's something the new version does as much. But whenever it's on the left side of the envelope it's worth a pause.. though I think the UKMET is pretty far west maybe even further west. The 500 pass is good but it's not one of those "sure thing" ones like some. The pattern is quality though. If the Euro holds it for another couple runs it's probably pretty set. I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 17, 2016 Share Posted March 17, 2016 Mid March of 1993 produced, in my opinion, the all time number one winter event ever with extreme consequences from Florida to Maine. Was it not Mt Mitchell that had 60" while one day earlier some sections of Florida were under10'of water and isolated 20'. I also think every state recorded 40mph sustained winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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