Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

Surface temps are at 34-35 when the heavy precip moves in.

 

 

Is this a total precip map or a 6 hour map.

 

Also, how does this compare with the 0z map?

[Ian]

Is this a total precip map or a 6 hour map.

 

Also, how does this compare with the 0z map?

6 hr.. you get like .5"+.. has .6" but some is from today. 1-1.2" 95 corridor overall. 

 

Last night was mostly a miss/but brushed eastern spots.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hr.. you get like .5"+.. has .6" but some is from today. 1-1.2" 95 corridor overall. 

 

Last night was mostly a miss/but brushed eastern spots.

Thanks Ian.

 

One other thing.  What is the Euro timing on this thing?  The map posted, what is it's ending time?

[mitchnick]

So when do we start taking bets on whether the 12z ensembles show something meaningful over that magic 2" number? I guess we better start soon.

[Ian]

Thanks Ian.

 

One other thing.  What is the Euro timing on this thing?  The map posted, what is it's ending time?

That's 6 hr ending 18z. You mostly get precip from about 6z till 18z. Bulk falls 12z-0z in I95 corridor.  

[mitchnick]

Speaking of ensembles, the Wxbell ensembles must use the same voodoo science as the operational when it comes to snowfall maps. That would explain much of the crummy forecasts it has showed this season.

[EastCoast NPZ]

I wish I could put into words just how tired I am of maps that look just like this.

 

And that is why my screen name is EastCoast NPZ.

[Ian]

Speaking of ensembles, the Wxbell ensembles must use the same voodoo science as the operational when it comes to snowfall maps. That would explain much of the crummy forecasts it has showed this season.

It's better than it was but it could still use some work. Or people could stop being snow map weenies.

[WinterWxLuvr]

That's 6 hr ending 18z. You mostly get precip from about 6z till 18z. Bulk falls 12z-0z in I95 corridor.  

Ouch.  That's the worst possible time for the I-95 corridor.  I suppose hoping it comes 6 hours earlier isn't that much of a fantasy hope.

[mitchnick]

It's better than it was but it could still use some work. Or people could stop being snow map weenies.

I know it's been mentioned that the operational snow maps improved this year (since I didn't have Wxbell before this year, I can't say), but I'm more speaking of the ensemble snow maps. If they haven't been improved since last year and considering this year they have seemed determined to show more snow than reality, at least the mean, then my thought was maybe they haven't been adjusted like the operational. Or maybe they just suck too, idk.

[mitchnick]

1/26/11 was about the warmest I've can remember it being with it still accumulating snow. Of course rates were heavy that day, which helped cool the boundary layer. With the Euro at 35 most of the time on today's run, I can't see it accumulating. But 1/26/11 shows that 33.8 is just cold enough to support snow. These are BWI's obs from that day off Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/1/26/DailyHistory.html

 

So verbatim, we're screwed. Drop it a degree and a half, ideally 2, and there can be some moderate accumulations.

[Warm Nose]

Thought I wouldn't need this again

[CheesyPoofs]

1/26/11 was about the warmest I've can remember it being with it still accumulating snow. Of course rates were heavy that day, which helped cool the boundary layer. With the Euro at 35 most of the time on today's run, I can't see it accumulating. But 1/26/11 shows that 33.8 is just cold enough to support snow. These are BWI's obs from that day off Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/1/26/DailyHistory.html

 

So verbatim, we're screwed. Drop it a degree and a half, ideally 2, and there can be some moderate accumulations.

 

Yes, I'm being a weenie...but March 30th, 2014, to me, put to bed the notion that it's impossible for snow to stick during the day this late in the year without absolutely insane rates. I forget what the exact temps were at the time (reading the obs thread, it appeared to be anywhere from 32-35 across the area), but this picture was taken in Howard County in the middle of the afternoon on March 30, 2014, and, if I remember correctly, we torched before this. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-523-0-01704800-1396213592.jpg

 

To be fair, it didn't last long, and when we lulled, all the pavement accumulation melted. But, if I remember correctly, the rates weren't terribly impressive at the time that picture was taken. It was an impressive event, at least to this weenie. Here's the link to the part of the thread discussing that event.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43098-march-14-obs-and-general-discussion/page-24

[mitchnick]

Yes, I'm being a weenie...but March 30th, 2014, to me, put to bed the notion that it's impossible for snow to stick during the day this late in the year without absolutely insane rates. I forget what the exact temps were at the time (reading the obs thread, it appeared to be anywhere from 32-35 across the area), but this picture was taken in Howard County in the middle of the afternoon on March 30, 2014, and, if I remember correctly, we torched before this. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_03_2014/post-523-0-01704800-1396213592.jpg

 

To be fair, it didn't last long, and when we lulled, all the pavement accumulation melted. But, if I remember correctly, the rates weren't terribly impressive at the time that picture was taken. It was an impressive event, at least to this weenie. Here's the link to the part of the thread discussing that event.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43098-march-14-obs-and-general-discussion/page-24

BWI a trace that day.    lol

We don't do well in those kind of events.

[Bob Chill]

Euro ens look solid. Mitch still doesn't approve though. 

[Bob Chill]

We can downplay it all we want but this is becoming a legit threat in general. Maybe we're too warm. Maybe we're not. But for a late season storm, this one is looking pretty good right now. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1/26/11 was about the warmest I've can remember it being with it still accumulating snow. Of course rates were heavy that day, which helped cool the boundary layer. With the Euro at 35 most of the time on today's run, I can't see it accumulating. But 1/26/11 shows that 33.8 is just cold enough to support snow. These are BWI's obs from that day off Wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KBWI/2011/1/26/DailyHistory.html

So verbatim, we're screwed. Drop it a degree and a half, ideally 2, and there can be some moderate accumulations.

And the sun angle will be 20 degrees higher now than it is on 1/26.....

[mitchnick]

Euro ens look solid. Mitch still doesn't approve though. 

Actually, I do. I'm just not confident with the ensemble snowfall maps. If true, however, they are darn good considering the date.

Did you look at the qpf maps? They are incredibly wet for an ensemble run imho.

[Bob Chill]

Actually, I do. I'm just not confident with the ensemble snowfall maps. If true, however, they are darn good considering the date.

Did you look at the qpf maps? They are incredibly wet for an ensemble run imho.

 

I'm not worried about snow maps. I know expecting 10:1 is totally insane. However, if 1" of liquid falls as mostly snow then it gets interesting. Really interesting. The only way to overcome crappy temps is to puke snow. And this storm might do that. It's a good month for a dynamic system. And it's not a wimpy vort/storm showing up on the panels. 

 

I totally understand how much is working against the majority of our yards. If I get 2" of mashed potatoes I would be pretty thrilled to be honest. 

[psuhoffman]

I'm not worried about snow maps. I know expecting 10:1 is totally insane. However, if 1" of liquid falls as mostly snow then it gets interesting. Really interesting. The only way to overcome crappy temps is to puke snow. And this storm might do that. It's a good month for a dynamic system. And it's not a wimpy vort/storm showing up on the panels.

I totally understand how much is working against the majority of our yards. If I get 2" of mashed potatoes I would be pretty thrilled to be honest.

mmmm garlic mashed potatoes

Great trends today. At least we have something to track. It was dead in here

[Amped]

We don't accumulate well at this time of year unless it's heavy snow or nigh time or both.  Lets hope this storm is hard and fast and all night long.

[Bob Chill]

mmmm garlic mashed potatoes

Great trends today. At least we have something to track. It was dead in here

It's a tough time of year. Temps are a problem with this one too. A scraper with .5 qpf spread over 12 hours isn't going to do it. We have to get nuked. Especially the 95 corridor. You probably have one of the better chances at hitting 32 overnight. It's pretty unlikely that I get there.

Luckily 850s are plenty cold. A good dose of frontogen and a side order of VV's can get the parachutes and white asteroids going hard enough to cover some stuff in my yard. It's asking a lot but there's a chance so...

It can't go down like snoquester. That wimpy pulsey precip shield sucked. It wasn't supposed to go down like that bit it did. In some ways this is a similar setup with reliance on dynamics. Trending better in that dept today for sure

[psuhoffman]

The control is pretty drool worthy. And I've not seen a mean as bullish as the eps this late ever. I was shocked when I saw it.

[stormtracker]

The control is pretty drool worthy. And I've not seen a mean as bullish as the eps this late ever. I was shocked when I saw it.

You gotta specify.  Drool worthy for you may not be drool worthy for the rest of us.

[psuhoffman]

It's a tough time of year. Temps are a problem with this one too. A scraper with .5 qpf spread over 12 hours isn't going to do it. We have to get nuked. Especially the 95 corridor. You probably have one of the better chances at hitting 32 overnight. It's pretty unlikely that I get there.

Luckily 850s are plenty cold. A good dose of frontogen and a side order of VV's can get the parachutes and white asteroids going hard enough to cover some stuff in my yard. It's asking a lot but there's a chance so...

It can't go down like snoquester. That wimpy pulsey precip shield sucked. It wasn't supposed to go down like that bit it did. In some ways this is a similar setup with reliance on dynamics. Trending better in that dept today for sure

that storm was weakening and washing out some before redeveloping off New England. We got stuck in between. Plus that convective qpf near Richmond robbed the moisture transport up here. It just went wrong. Doesn't mean this will. We need to get into that developing deform band. If we do though someone will be happy. This is the right setup for late March. Fresh cold air and a developing fast moving coastal with a heavy precip band.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

The control is pretty drool worthy. And I've not seen a mean as bullish as the eps this late ever. I was shocked when I saw it.

DCA mean?

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[psuhoffman]

You gotta specify. Drool worthy for you may not be drool worthy for the rest of us.

come on Randy do I really do you guys like that? It's about 8-12" in DC and Baltimore. 10-12 nw burbs. 4-8" se burbs but it goes down fast as you head southeast of the cities but you do good.

[psuhoffman]

DCA mean?

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maybe just under 4 at dca. 4" runs through DC proper and bwi.

[BristowWx]

maybe just under 4 at dca. 4" runs through DC proper and bwi.

Even cut in half that is really nice

[stormtracker]

come on Randy do I really do you guys like that? It's about 8-12" in DC and Baltimore. 10-12 nw burbs. 4-8" se burbs but it goes down fast as you head southeast of the cities but you do good.

Ha, I wasn't saying you were dogging us, I know you wouldn't..but still..I just wanted to be sure because we might as well live at opposite ends of the earth climate wise.