Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

For the dead of winter with cold temp avgs a 2 inch mean at long range is probably mostly noise. But when you are talking early march and fighting warmer temps I am not sure you can as easily dismiss it especially with roughly 2 inches falling in a 4-5 day window. But we have been sucking wind lately with the longer range so I can understand where you are coming from.

Generally, the mean was 2-3" earlier in the month so 1.5-2" at this point strikes me as no better relatively speaking.

[showmethesnow]

The common theme killing threats during a period of great teleconnections right now is still too much Atlantic ridging and the displaced pv being too compact and or just a little north of where we need it this time of year. It's still an overall good look to our north though so I'm not jumping yet. For the same reasons I expected the last threat to trend worse because of a crap pattern I still expect the day 6-10 period to trend better. After that is murky. We need the stj to undercut and pull the trough into the south. Right now that's iffy. The weeklies had that look but recently most runs keep any troughs centered north of us. That's not a good look in March.

Euro ensembles looked really washed out in the longer range through the CONUS. About the only strong signal it has  is for the southern tier which looks to be an active STJ. Would not be surprised though if within the next couple of days we start seeing some signs of a trough digging and and possibly tapping into the STJ.

[psuhoffman]

Euro ensembles looked really washed out in the longer range through the CONUS. About the only strong signal it has is for the southern tier which looks to be an active STJ. Would not be surprised though if within the next couple of days we start seeing some signs of a trough digging and and possibly tapping into the STJ.

I think this is headed where I thought it just may be taking too long to get there. The gefs still tries to pull the PAC trough east but it's been doing that all year and keeps pushing it Out in time so I'm throwing that out. Looking at where the eps leaves us day 15 I like where it could go. Mjo into favorable phases , an active stj, blocking to our north. It's probably setting up a favorable period after. I went back and looked at the weeklies and it did show a murky period before the great look mid March. I even said at the time my one complaint was the best pattern wasn't until mid March and that's pushing it. I'm guilty of trying to rush this because the clock is ticking and we may well run out of time and we get several cold rain or slop storms Mid March but it is what it is and it's not going to evolve faster just because we want it too. just have to hope that if this does go where I'm thinking when we get some nice storm tracks March 7-20 we can find enough cold to score something.

[mitchnick]

The common theme killing threats during a period of great teleconnections right now is still too much Atlantic ridging and the displaced pv being too compact and or just a little north of where we need it this time of year. It's still an overall good look to our north though so I'm not jumping yet. For the same reasons I expected the last threat to trend worse because of a crap pattern I still expect the day 6-10 period to trend better. After that is murky. We need the stj to undercut and pull the trough into the south. Right now that's iffy. The weeklies had that look but recently most runs keep any troughs centered north of us. That's not a good look in March.

Wrt the weeklies, the mean snowfall for the 46 day period was less than 2". I know all the mets say the weeklies are best used for determining patterns, but I think there would need to be some support of a decent wintry pattern with a prediction of meaningful snowfall over the 46 day period. Less than 2" is beyond pathetic and supports a cr@p pattern.

[WinterWxLuvr]

The 7 day mean snow for my location on the both the latest gefs and eps is between 0.5" and 1".

 

I think I'll be able to control my excitement.

 

I admit I was excited about the prospect of real cold dropping down late next weekend.  Without it, I'm almost out.  The 30 degree snow that falls from 10pm to 7am only to melt by 1pm does absolutely nothing for me and I would rather it be sunny and 60.  So, no real cold, no interest.

 

The one ace in the hole is that long range has been jumpy, so just because it doesn't look great this am doesn't mean it won't turn out good.

 

The window is about 25 days IMO.

[Ralph Wiggum]

My point wasn't wrt any particular storm. I was just saying that the euro snowfall ensemble mean has been a relatively accurate predictor of snow in this area since the end of January so I haven't found the need to disect the individual ensemble members.

I agree with this 100%.

[psuhoffman]

Wrt the weeklies, the mean snowfall for the 46 day period was less than 2". I know all the mets say the weeklies are best used for determining patterns, but I think there would need to be some support of a decent wintry pattern with a prediction of meaningful snowfall over the 46 day period. Less than 2" is beyond pathetic and supports a cr@p pattern.

the mean jumped up fast just nw of 95. My take is with much of the good look at h5 being after March 10 could be the model saying climo gets you. But from 20 days out your trusting it to nail the rain snow line on coastals. My mean was closer to 10" here so the signal for storms up the coast is there. I'm fully admitting this is coming late and on the edge of when it could do any good for 95 but I can't move the dates. Just looking at what the pattern says. I might even rather it warm up and have some nice 70 days. Saturday was great. But if it's going to be chilly and stormy might as well snow.

[CAPE]

The 7 day mean snow for my location on the both the latest gefs and eps is between 0.5" and 1".

 

I think I'll be able to control my excitement.

 

I admit I was excited about the prospect of real cold dropping down late next weekend.  Without it, I'm almost out.  The 30 degree snow that falls from 10pm to 7am only to melt by 1pm does absolutely nothing for me and I would rather it be sunny and 60.  So, no real cold, no interest.

 

The one ace in the hole is that long range has been jumpy, so just because it doesn't look great this am doesn't mean it won't turn out good.

 

The window is about 25 days IMO.

This is where I am at, as the period just beyond is where I thought we would see our chances for a couple decent events. This time of year I am already losing interest, so if the "period of interest" then becomes March 5-15, meh.

[WinterWxLuvr]

This is where I am at, as the period just beyond is where I thought we would see our chances for a couple decent events. This time of year I am already losing interest, so if the "period of interest" then becomes March 5-15, meh.

Exactly.  If you need a 75% "better than normal" airmass, whatever that may be,  for the first week of March, you need a 90% better one the second week of March.  Doesn't mean it can't happen, just means it gets harder by the day.  

 

A great pattern, even a "sick" pattern, by mid March can fail to deliver real winter weather.  Pretty sure nobody is interested in more cold rain.

[psuhoffman]

Ugh. We go through this every year at this time unless a big snow is staring us in the face. We all know climo. We all know what March means, snow becomes more and more a long shot. And I totally understand not liking March snow because it melts fast and is messy. Or that it's been a long winter and some are weary of the chase and are ready to just warm up and be done with it. All that is fine. But the weather don't care what you want. Just like it's not going to snow just because we want it's not going to be 70 and sunny either. I just want to track the pattern. It may or may not produce but I'm going to analyze it and see if there is any potential not just say it's almost March it's over. Probabilities suggest Mitch is probably right but weather doesn't care about averages either. 2/3 top snows here were after March 20. I don't think March will be without any threats. It would shock me. But could those threats turn out to be 33 and rain yea. But I'm going to track them regardless.

[psuhoffman]

This is where I am at, as the period just beyond is where I thought we would see our chances for a couple decent events. This time of year I am already losing interest, so if the "period of interest" then becomes March 5-15, meh.

it kinda always was that though. The period before March 7 on the weeklies was ok but the trough was not ideal. Kind of how it's playing out. The best looks that people were excited about were March 7-14 and 15-22. I'm not throwing the towel on the few 29 or March 2 threat yet either but the best look was always into March.

[CAPE]

Ugh. We go through this every year at this time unless a big snow is staring us in the face. We all know climo. We all know what March means, snow becomes more and more a long shot. And I totally understand not liking March snow because it melts fast and is messy. Or that it's been a long winter and some are weary of the chase and are ready to just warm up and be done with it. All that is fine. But the weather don't care what you want. Just like it's not going to snow just because we want it's not going to be 70 and sunny either. I just want to track the pattern. It may or may not produce but I'm going to analyze it and see if there is any potential not just say it's almost March it's over. Probabilities suggest Mitch is probably right but weather doesn't care about averages either. 2/3 top snows here were after March 20. I don't think March will be without any threats. It would shock me. But could those threats turn out to be 33 and rain yea. But I'm going to track them regardless.

March can deliver cold and snow. We all know that. Last 2 winters are fresh in mind. I have been optimistic based on the advertised pattern in the means, but the predominant background state of this winter is strong Nino/warm temps. That must be given a lot of weight in combination with the warming March climo. I dont care about snow hanging around after it falls at this point either, hell I haven't seen that at all this winter. I do think our best shot this March is going to be the first week. If the guidance starts backing off on that, or delaying the "good" pattern to mid month, I think odds are much lower this March, compared to the previous 2, of getting a good event. Of course where you are located, you can have a bit different mindset.

[EastonSN+]

It's nearly March. Snow is now getting exponentially harder to come by. I know there are folks who keep holding onto this idea of a backloaded winter because of El Nino etc, but this has been anything BUT a 'normal' El Nino analogue. One feature that has haunted us all season long is the LR models showing VERY favorable teleconnections and then pulling the rug out from under us as the time approaches. In actuality, we only had a few brief transient (mostly) periods with favorable EPO/AO/NAO/PNA even though guidance insisted "things setup perfectly in 10 days". This was the winter of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. It's over for all intents and purposes.....I see nothing significant on any guidance attm through at least March 5 (I emphasize "significant"). And by that point, unless we can pull a March 93 or March 1888 (one-in-100 year storms) out of the hat later in March, we probably wont be adding much to our annual snow totals. I give this winter overall a C- and am ready for surf fishing and bikini watching.

Good post. I wonder when we will see an 1888 repeat

[psuhoffman]

March can deliver cold and snow. We all know that. Last 2 winters are fresh in mind. I have been optimistic based on the advertised pattern in the means, but the predominant background state of this winter is strong Nino/warm temps. That must be given a lot of weight in combination with the warming March climo. I dont care about snow hanging around after it falls at this point either, hell I haven't seen that at all this winter. I do think our best shot this March is going to be the first week. If the guidance starts backing off on that, or delaying the "good" pattern to mid month, I think odds are much lower this March, compared to the previous 2, of getting a good event. Of course where you are located, you can have a bit different mindset.

I guess I'm not seeing what everyone else is. People saying if models back off the first week of March. What is showing a great pattern early March? My take was the best look was always the second week of March but no one wants to wait that long. I get it but we can't Wishcast it sooner.

[CAPE]

I guess I'm not seeing what everyone else is. People saying if models back off the first week of March. What is showing a great pattern early March? My take was the best look was always the second week of March but no one wants to wait that long. I get it but we can't Wishcast it sooner.

There has clearly been a window with potential between the 29th and the 3rd or 4th of March. I am not going to look past that because there might be a another.better set up 7-10 days later..we dont have much winter left, in a winter that has failed many more times than not to deliver cold AND favorable set ups for winter storms.

[clskinsfan]

The common theme killing threats during a period of great teleconnections right now is still too much Atlantic ridging and the displaced pv being too compact and or just a little north of where we need it this time of year. It's still an overall good look to our north though so I'm not jumping yet. For the same reasons I expected the last threat to trend worse because of a crap pattern I still expect the day 6-10 period to trend better. After that is murky. We need the stj to undercut and pull the trough into the south. Right now that's iffy. The weeklies had that look but recently most runs keep any troughs centered north of us. That's not a good look in March.

 

Agree with this. Plus we seem to be getting a little unlucky on the progression of HP's to the north. They are out of a good location by the time any storm arrives. Instead of a HP over the lakes we end up with a LP there. And that is a death sentence without true arctic air. This mornings GFS run is the same cycle. We are getting close to the end if it's right.

[mitchnick]

The question is not whether March can produce, the question is whether a March in a strong Nino can produce. History says not since 1958, and that was 7 strong ninos ago.

[CAPE]

The question is not whether March can produce, the question is whether a March in a strong Nino can produce. History says not since 1958.

Yes. I have also been trying to make this point lol.

[mitchnick]

Yes. I have also been trying to make this point lol.

See my addition!

[WinterWxLuvr]

it kinda always was that though. The period before March 7 on the weeklies was ok but the trough was not ideal. Kind of how it's playing out. The best looks that people were excited about were March 7-14 and 15-22. I'm not throwing the towel on the few 29 or March 2 threat yet either but the best look was always into March.

 

I have nothing but respect for your knowledge, but I have to say I just can't put that much faith into ensembles that far into the future.  Where were the ensembles for this week about a week ago?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yes. I have also been trying to make this point lol.

And I think it's a good point.

[EastCoast NPZ]

The question is not whether March can produce, the question is whether a March in a strong Nino can produce. History says not since 1958, and that was 7 strong ninos ago.

 

 

Yes. I have also been trying to make this point lol.

 

Exactly.  I find it difficult to believe we will get an airmass cold enough to produce any meaningful snow, or a good-enough storm track.

[psuhoffman]

There has clearly been a window with potential between the 29th and the 3rd or 4th of March. I am not going to look past that because there might be a another.better set up 7-10 days later..we dont have much winter left, in a winter that has failed many more times than not to deliver cold AND favorable set ups for winter storms.

ok I see your point and there is a window as the pv displaces south. I just always liked the look of where we we headed after that rotates out and we can get the trough to undercut to our south with blocking. That's a really good pattern but your right it's way out and mid March is problematic. But things actually are progressing pattern wise about how that great weekly run suggested.

[psuhoffman]

I have nothing but respect for your knowledge, but I have to say I just can't put that much faith into ensembles that far into the future. Where were the ensembles for this week about a week ago?

I'm not saying the skepticism is wrong but I think impatience is clouding people to what was always being shown. I was guilty to some degree as I want one of the early threats in the pattern to produce just as much but going back to the runs and seeing what the h5 looks like now they were actually pretty good. The pattern was never good for this week. Next week was better but the trough was centered a bit north of where I would like and as we get closer that's showing to hurt our chances. The "great" look that was exciting was the March 7-20 period. That's where the trough was centered over the southeast with blocking over the top. That's what we need if we want a big snow this late. The few 29 and March 2-3 threats aren't dead and I still think one or both show up again before its over but they aren't perfect setups. I do like what the eps suggests is going on around March 5 and where we would likely go right after that. The stj is showing and the pv is gone. That would allow the trough to pull into the south. It's not a cold pattern but it's a big storm one.

[CAPE]

ok I see your point and there is a window as the pv displaces south. I just always liked the look of where we we headed after that rotates out and we can get the trough to undercut to our south with blocking. That's a really good pattern but your right it's way out and mid March is problematic. But things actually are progressing pattern wise about how that great weekly run suggested.

As you mentioned yesterday when the GFS op had the PV so far south and everything was suppressed, what was an unlikely outcome, and it is the least of our worries IMO. I want that cold pressing in here however, and maybe we can get an overrrunning deal as some recent op runs have suggested. As far as the pattern going forward towards mid month...too chancy with getting cold in here, despite the decent look on the ensembles wrt the long wave pattern and the high latitudes. That can easily be a non producer with the strong Nino plus being in Met Spring.

[psuhoffman]

As you mentioned yesterday when the GFS op had the PV so far south and everything was suppressed, what was an unlikely outcome, and it is the least of our worries IMO. I want that cold pressing in here however, and maybe we can get an overrrunning deal as some recent op runs have suggested. As far as the pattern going forward towards mid month...too chancy with getting cold in here, despite the decent look on the ensembles wrt the long wave pattern and the high latitudes. That can easily be a non producer with the strong Nino plus being in Met Spring.

can't argue with any of that.

[Sparky]

Ugh. We go through this every year at this time unless a big snow is staring us in the face. We all know climo. We all know what March means, snow becomes more and more a long shot. And I totally understand not liking March snow because it melts fast and is messy. Or that it's been a long winter and some are weary of the chase and are ready to just warm up and be done with it. All that is fine. But the weather don't care what you want. Just like it's not going to snow just because we want it's not going to be 70 and sunny either. I just want to track the pattern. It may or may not produce but I'm going to analyze it and see if there is any potential not just say it's almost March it's over. Probabilities suggest Mitch is probably right but weather doesn't care about averages either. 2/3 top snows here were after March 20. I don't think March will be without any threats. It would shock me. But could those threats turn out to be 33 and rain yea. But I'm going to track them regardless.

That's one reason I do like a heavy March snowfall.  Easier cleanup and less overwhelming to deal with.  Doesn't really bother me if it melts extra fast or if I lose a couple of potential inches to warmer surfaces at the start/a bit of mixing.

[mitchnick]

The one weenie part of my brain that holds out any hope rests on the idea that unlike most mod/strong Nino years that had above normal snows, this year is a month behind. What I mean is, the bulk of the mod/strong Nino's that had AN snows produced in December, relaxed some in January, then produced well again in February. We didn't start this year until January, February relaxed, so now there's March left to come. Will this year's March act like a February that produced well during snowy mod/strong Nino's? Like I say, that's the weenie hope.

[psuhoffman]

[WinterWxLuvr]

The 24hr change in the GFS for Sunday morning Feb 28 are amazing.  It's what I would call a radical shift.

 

Just don't see how we will be able to have much faith in anything that far out.