mitchnick Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 DT b humping the euro on FBThere's nothing on the Euro snow-wise for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Day 5 is when the euro has been locking in lately. It teases us with a run or two day 6+ but once it's locked in inside 120 hrs it's been game over. So this probably isn't coming back. With the exception of the blizzard we have had two dominant storm tracks, cutting to our west or sliding just a bit too far ots. This fits right in. Had the northern stream phased in like earlier runs showed it would have cut. It didn't so it slides east ots. it was fun to do a have one last "mini tracking" event. only one real feast this year with blizzard...mostly famine with the rest. It was probably December that really made this winter miserable. We only get about three months of a decent window and losing one entirely start to finish was not something I thought would happen. Warm sure but baking record setting warmth day after day was painful. the fact that we hit or exceeded climo snow is nothing short of a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 DT b humping the euro on FB lol I trolled him a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 DT b humping the euro on FB When isn't he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 it was fun to do a have one last "mini tracking" event. only one real feast this year with blizzard...mostly famine with the rest. It was probably December that really made this winter miserable. We only get about three months of a decent window and losing one entirely start to finish was not something I thought would happen. Warm sure but baking record setting warmth day after day was painful. the fact that we hit or exceeded climo snow is nothing short of a miracle This is an excellent summary of the MA winter for the year, thanks. Maybe we see some wet snow, doubt much 'stickage', snow TV/white rain at best? But a few cooler and 'normal' days will be nice and refreshing to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Seems like the models want to keep it pretty chilly throughout their runs. Not really what I was hoping to see early this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Day 5 is when the euro has been locking in lately. It teases us with a run or two day 6+ but once it's locked in inside 120 hrs it's been game over. So this probably isn't coming back. With the exception of the blizzard we have had two dominant storm tracks, cutting to our west or sliding just a bit too far ots. This fits right in. Had the northern stream phased in like earlier runs showed it would have cut. It didn't so it slides east ots. But this is where people need to give a "tip of the hat" to the GFS. It locked in on the bliz 7+ days out and it locked in on this p.o.s. 7 days out as basically a non-event. It has been handling the 5-7 day threats much better than the Euro this year imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 But this is where people need to give a "tip of the hat" to the GFS. It locked in on the bliz 7+ days out and it locked in on this p.o.s. 7 days out as basically a non-event. It has been handling the 5-7 day threats much better than the Euro this year imho. So how much snow am I gonna get Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 yes, but if we tip our hats to the GFS, we also must note that the parallel GFS (will which become the operational GFS in May) still has a major precip event in a corridor from just east of here up into eastern New England. personally, I'm not totally ready to write this one off yet.... But this is where people need to give a "tip of the hat" to the GFS. It locked in on the bliz 7+ days out and it locked in on this p.o.s. 7 days out as basically a non-event. It has been handling the 5-7 day threats much better than the Euro this year imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 But this is where people need to give a "tip of the hat" to the GFS. It locked in on the bliz 7+ days out and it locked in on this p.o.s. 7 days out as basically a non-event. It has been handling the 5-7 day threats much better than the Euro this year imho. agree but it also craps the bed sometimes inside 5 days so it makes it hard to always buy its day 7. It has had a good year overall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 6z para GFS is a couple of inches of snow in the local area and wouldn't take a big shift west to be a lot more. It's primarily an overnight Saturday event, and we'd need that timing with the marginal temps. 12z NAM at f84 looks somewhat similar to the 06z GFS para at f90. not at all ready to buy in, given the overnight ECMWF and the limited signal in the GEFS, but I'm curious to see what the 12z global suite shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 yes, but if we tip our hats to the GFS, we also must note that the parallel GFS (will which become the operational GFS in May) still has a major precip event in a corridor from just east of here up into eastern New England. personally, I'm not totally ready to write this one off yet.... Well, I was just talking the GFS and not the Para. Looking at the surface temps on the 6Z Para tells me it's snow TV with little, if any, accumulations. I would need to see the Para GFS get several degrees colder to make it interesting, and to do that would require the slp to get further west which reintroduces more warm air. I understand you're not predicting anything and are just keeping an eye on it, but going back to my original post, the Euro has been snow happy in the 5-7 day range all winter and GFS hasn't, except for the bliz when it was right. I believe it has done better predicting reality from the mid range which used to belong to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z GFS will be coming west... decent ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z GFS will be coming west... decent ridge out west picture of our winter aside from 2 days in January http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016031612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 Para and regular with baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 picture of our winter aside from 2 days in January http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2016031612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=117 About as accurate as Minnesota's FG kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 won't disagree with much of this, except for the part about snow tv. With the para GFS, the snow falls overnight. We've seen many times before that snow can at least stick on grass, decks, and cars, even with marginal surface temps. But with the 12z ops GFS which has taken a step in the right direction, its timing for whatever snow that falls is during daylight hours. That would almost certainly be snow tv. Well, I was just talking the GFS and not the Para. Looking at the surface temps on the 6Z Para tells me it's snow TV with little, if any, accumulations. I would need to see the Para GFS get several degrees colder to make it interesting, and to do that would require the slp to get further west which reintroduces more warm air. I understand you're not predicting anything and are just keeping an eye on it, but going back to my original post, the Euro has been snow happy in the 5-7 day range all winter and GFS hasn't, except for the bliz when it was right. I believe it has done better predicting reality from the mid range which used to belong to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 16, 2016 Author Share Posted March 16, 2016 won't disagree with much of this, except for the part about snow tv. With the para GFS, the snow falls overnight. We've seen many times before that snow can at least stick on grass, decks, and cars, even with marginal surface temps. But with the 12z ops GFS which has taken a step in the right direction, its timing for whatever snow that falls is during daylight hours. That would almost certainly be snow tv. Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but the 12z gfs I"m looking at has most of the precip falling before 12z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GFS is actually decent if you correct it a little NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z UKIE at 96 is 1006mb in SE SC (near CHS)... at 120 its 977mb over BOS... wish we had a 108 panel because it would probably be just off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 12z UKIE at 96 is 1006mb in SE SC (near CHS)... at 120 its 977mb over BOS... wish we had a 108 panel because it would probably be just off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM is a bomb. There is a west trend today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 GGEM a tad east of where we would like it, but it too develops a potent coastal once it gets to around HSE at 108... meteograms should be interesting to see... I expect a good EURO run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I like what the GFS is doing at hr 228...if it were February...of another year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 UKIE-GFS-CMC are all about the same in general. I'm not expecting much but a chance at some sort of surprise is definitely alive. I'd be satisfied with watching snow fall for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 UKIE-GFS-CMC are all about the same in general. I'm not expecting much but a chance at some sort of surprise is definitely alive. I'd be satisfied with watching snow fall for a while. So you're saying there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 So you're saying there's a chance... Above normal chance. Haven't changed my mind on that since I said it a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Above normal chance. Haven't changed my mind on that since I said it a few days ago. I'm actually interested now. Let's see what the Euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 CMC - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Between the CMC and Euro, Salisbury has been just pummeled with digital snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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