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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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One thing starting to show up more clearly in the long range is my least favorite spring weather...cool hp's sliding of the coast up north. Backdoor maritime drizzle incoming

Backdoor cold fronts are worse than getting water boarded. It's the worst kind of weather, makes me want to cut myself.

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Backdoor cold fronts are worse than getting water boarded. It's the worst kind of weather, makes me want to cut myself.

Especially when you were liking 85f degrees and then in 1 hour its 54f...then you look to your northeast and it is 44f and you say now thats not too bad another check to the southwest just 20 miles away 87.

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What's bizarre is stating a pretty normal view - 38 and rain in late March sucks - opens one up for ridicule.

Every year the same thing happens Late February through early March, as the end nears for winter there seems to be this same battle between those holding on to winter and those rooting for spring.  Combine that with the snow weeneies freaking out in years we didn't get enough snow to satisfy their needs for the year and it gets kinda ugly for a while.  It gets tense in here.  I find it to be entertaining mostly.   

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Not a whole lot of QPF on the euro...wide-ish right....

   

As everything was shifting east I decided not to post anything after yesterdays euro run because I had a bad feeling it might just be a pit stop on the way to an OTS solution but I didn't want to come off negative.  There has been a definite trend this year of almost all storms (with one very notable exception) either cutting or being suppressed too much for our area (for major impacts anyways).  This time it looks like the cutter option is less likely, the timing of that system coming in ahead makes it very unlikely something could wind up and cut that fast.  It's actually perfect timing of the cold delivery for this time of year, we need fresh arctic air to have any shot, but will the flow be too suppressive?  In march we need less spacing for something to pop then in winter and storms can become pretty dynamic even if they are small in scale so its worth keeping an eye on.  Euro was still close enough to something, euro control was a nice hit, and several ensembles as well, the mean took a noticable jump up and still actually favors NW of the cities not an OTS look on the EPS mean but for the most part the GFS has abandoned this threat.  The seasonal trend would suggest leaning towards a suppressed event but the time of year and my eternal optimism has me keeping an eye on it.   Probably just going to whiff one more time as Lucy pulls the football at the last second. 

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Every year the same thing happens Late February through early March, as the end nears for winter there seems to be this same battle between those holding on to winter and those rooting for spring.  Combine that with the snow weeneies freaking out in years we didn't get enough snow to satisfy their needs for the year and it gets kinda ugly for a while.  It gets tense in here.  I find it to be entertaining mostly.   

 

And I do confess to liking the seasons to be...seasonal. I thought December's warmth was a horror show.

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agreed Bob, GGEM is a close miss but man what a bomb just to our southeast.  UK looks pretty good from the minimal graphics I can see.  Everything is just a touch southeast right now but I am fine with that.  If we can keep this thing hanging around at spitting distance I like our chances.  If it starts to look like a weak suppressed way OTS system then its probably not coming back. 

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I think we were both thinking of trends and that its closer to a storm then what it shows verbatim.   

 

I know this is a pretty standard response but until the euro loses the storm I don't really care much about other guidance right now. The miss east on last night's euro could easily be just noise vs a trend. 

 

 

 

GFS looks awesome if you love 40F drizzle for days.

 

 Unfortunately there's a lot of agreement there after this weekend. Looks like a series of hp's sliding off the coast of NE for a period time. Pretty standard stuff in our area almost every early spring. It's depressing weather. lol

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Euro is a Richmond to Salisbury event verbatim. 5-7". 1-3 NW of that. So.. we know this isnt going to be the way it plays out- Euro has given a bunch of digital snow to Salisbury this winter.

But I'm pretty sure SBY has been above normal this year, so it's plausible to me.

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But I'm pretty sure SBY has been above normal this year, so it's plausible to me.

Well they got mostly rain in the blizzard, but since their annual avg snowfall is pretty low they probably were. There is also climo, so I doubt it would pan out for areas SE if it plays out like this. Maybe a r/s mix or a sloppy coating if everything aligned. Best chance of sig snow would be for the good stuff to get NW of the fall line, which still may happen.

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Well they got mostly rain in the blizzard, but since their annual avg snowfall is pretty low they probably were. There is also climo, so I doubt it would pan out for areas SE if it plays out like this. Maybe a r/s mix or a sloppy coating if everything aligned. Best chance of sig snow would be for the good stuff to get NW of the fall line, which still may happen.

Yep, being farther south in the heavier precip is a good thing in January.  It's not quite the winning formula in mid March..

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