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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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seriously...you would take 32 and snow over 40 and rain?

You know what I meant. If 70 was an option vs a few inches of slop I would pass on the snow. This week has been nice I have no complaints. But that's not the realistic choice. If we're even talking about snow it's a miserable pattern. So if it's wet and miserable or white I'll take white and miserable.
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The pattern coming up is pretty good except it's late March. Need everything to break perfect. Track, intensity, meso scale banding, time of day all have to break our way. But I suppose we have a Hail Mary kind of chance still. Calling Aaron Rodgers.

You just know within the next week the GFS will show a major I-95 snowstorm for the week of the equinox. It's bound to happen...
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Given the pattern coming I would be surprised if I don't see a little more snow but I doubt its significant.

Yeah there might be some snow in the air, maybe a coating somewhere locally. I could see Davis/Oakland area getting a nice snow event with the advertised upcoming pattern.

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Yeah there might be some snow in the air, maybe a coating somewhere locally. I could see Davis/Oakland area getting a nice snow event with the advertised upcoming pattern.

we get some measurable snow late March early April here about half the time so it's not unusual. If it's more then 3-4" then it becomes a more rare event.
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we get some measurable snow late March early April here about half the time so it's not unusual. If it's more then 3-4" then it becomes a more rare event.

I lived in Carroll county for 10 years, so yeah I know it can happen. I remember the 1984 storm at the end of March when i was up there, when the Colts left town. Have also seen accumulating snow here a few times in late March, and once in early April. More rare than in your neck of the woods, but it does happen. Needs to be a night time event to have much of a shot though.

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Majority of the ensembles that show snow...and lol at e6....have it before Easter weekend.

Looks like above normal chances for snow in or near the cities coming up. Probably nuisance at worst until you get out to the typical good spots.

Above normal chances doesn't mean much this late though. Odds are stacked. If something discrete comes into focus inside of 5-6 days I'll prob get invested. Right now I have a brain full of spring thoughts and activities.

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EPS hasn't really shown anything that interesting in the mean. There are some big events mixed into the members but it's like 40+ that show nothing. Guess it's interesting there are like 4 that have 6+" into the 95 corridor but that's a pretty small chance verbatim. Also anything outside the mtns is generally outside d 10-11.. I don't expect a member to have much skill at that range.

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12z GFS winds up a coastal D8, 40 and rain during the day here. VA/WV mountains get a heavy wet snow, also interior New England. Ends as flurries for the far Northern Burbs, (almost an inch for mappy). 979 over Cape Cod/SE Mass. GGEM is similar.... actually at 195 hours almost the same spot, 972mb near Barnstable/the tip of the Cape. Only difference is GGEM has a GL Low.

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12z GFS winds up a coastal D8, 40 and rain during the day here. VA/WV mountains get a heavy wet snow, also interior New England. Ends as flurries for the far Northern Burbs, (almost an inch for mappy). 979 over Cape Cod/SE Mass. GGEM is similar.... actually at 195 hours almost the same spot, 972mb near Barnstable/the tip of the Cape. Only difference is GGEM has a GL Low.

Ukie also looks like a coastal

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It appears there's a decent chance that some of the N&W suburbs of DC will get at least some snow TV and - who knows - perhaps more than that in the next two weeks.  I cringed a little bit when CWG declared winter over.  It's too early to make a declarative statement like that.  Historically it seems that every time we do this we see one more wintry event.

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