Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 EPS looks cold for the first few days of Spring. Looks like a possible coastal or 2 on the Control run between the 20th and the 23rd. Death to the torch! Winter lives! Yeah we're down to +5 at the end of the run. Brrrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Yeah we're down to +5 at the end of the run. Brrrr.day 11-15 does not look like +5 anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 day 11-15 does not look like +5 anomaly 850 temps are pretty cold esp days 14-15. Control run is colder. Gotta keep the faith. Potential is there. Plenty of time for better trends. Surely the Mount Manchester boys are excited by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 day 11-15 does not look like +5 anomaly dunno.. maybe SV norms are off. looks close to normal on the raw temp maps. maybe lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The 'good block' has kept getting pushed back. It's been d 11-15 for like 10 days now. Not to mention we know cold has failed from range this year. We're done outside some fluke high elevation crap. Yeah it probably won't be near 80 all month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 dunno.. maybe SV norms are off. looks close to normal on the raw temp maps. maybe lows.h hmm...weatherbell had blues and greens for us day 14-15 at 850...maybe surface dosent jive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The 'good block' has kept getting pushed back. It's been d 11-15 for like 10 days now. Not to mention we know cold has failed from range this year. We're done outside some fluke high elevation crap. Yeah it probably won't be near 80 all month. We will likely have a blocky late Spring/Summer, when its completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 We will likely have a blocky late Spring/Summer, when its completely useless. If it can keep 95°+ heat waves at bay, I wouldn't call it useless, though I don't know too much about how NAO and summer temps correlate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 If it can keep 95°+ heat waves at bay, I wouldn't call it useless, though I don't know too much about how NAO and summer temps correlateAt a certain point it becomes a warm signal. I think most of summer 2010 was blocky. Not sure we will all out torch but I'd be surprised if it's not warmer than normal most of the year following a big nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 At a certain point it becomes a warm signal. I think most of summer 2010 was blocky. Not sure we will all out torch but I'd be surprised if it's not warmer than normal most of the year following a big nino. I looked at some composites blending all the mod-strong nino's since 1980 and June ends up below normal...but July/August are toasty for sure. I expect warmer than normal as well. This is not a good year for the northern hemisphere to have cold departures covering large areas. Will be interesting if this June is the coolest of the 3 met summer months. Would fit the mold just like our winter did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 850 temps are pretty cold esp days 14-15. Control run is colder. Gotta keep the faith. Potential is there. Plenty of time for better trends. Surely the Mount Manchester boys are excited by this. Cold rain! I will say the Negative NAO blocking we needed this winter seems to show up on the GFS! Not sure it helps get any wintry weather close, but makes Spring colder for sure if true.. But wintry weather needs a miracle like 1993 at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 The last several EPS and GEFS runs are pretty much putting a damper on any hopes of seeing snow in the 9-12 day period. They have continually shifted to the west after initially showing an east coast based trough. We are now seeing the trough setting up somewhere between the Midwest and the plains. During the winter this setup would be workable but at this time of year the anomalous cold that we need would get locked up, at best, to just west of the Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 The last several EPS and GEFS runs are pretty much putting a damper on any hopes of seeing snow in the 9-12 day period. They have continually shifted to the west after initially showing an east coast based trough. We are now seeing the trough setting up somewhere between the Midwest and the plains. During the winter this setup would be workable but at this time of year the anomalous cold that we need would get locked up, at best, to just west of the Appalachians. I doubt anyone really expects we will see any real cold again. I was having some fun with it yesterday, but any chance of legit snow outside of the western MD/WV highlands is super low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Correct. Unless there's some freak event, winter is over for anyone below 2500 feet. Even then, it really doesn't look favorable for the higher elevations either. That said, areas in Canaan/Dolly Sods/Snowshoe that are above 3500 ft are almost certain to see more snow. GFS is holding on to the mild/warm look through next Thursday then a few day cool down before we warm up again. There's a brief cool stretch towards the 22nd of the month. I'll believe when I see it.....seems to keep getting pushed back. I doubt anyone really expects we will see any real cold again. I was having some fun with it yesterday, but any chance of legit snow outside of the western MD/WV highlands is super low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Correct. Unless there's some freak event, winter is over for anyone below 2500 feet. Even then, it really doesn't look favorable for the higher elevations either. That said, areas in Canaan/Dolly Sods/Snowshoe that are above 3500 ft are almost certain to see more snow. GFS is holding on to the mild/warm look through next Thursday then a few day cool down before we warm up again. There's a brief cool stretch towards the 22nd of the month. I'll believe when I see it.....seems to keep getting pushed back. Yea, now the cool shot is being shown after the 21st. It's stuck out in the long range and doesn't advance forward in time and it keeps looking less impressive. At the end of last week, it looked like it was coming around the 15th. We've seen this movie before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 Yippie!! Good news in the long range. Loving this warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Yippie!! Good news in the long range. Loving this warm weather. mmhmm. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 mmhmm. Right. No, really. I think it's time, don't you? I mean, I wouldn't pass on a real snow, but I don't think that's in the cards this year so at least we might as well enjoy the outdoors. I have a sinking feeling that we will have to endure plenty of wet, damp, cold stuff first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 No, really. I think it's time, don't you? I mean, I wouldn't pass on a real snow, but I don't think that's in the cards this year so at least we might as well enjoy the outdoors. I have a sinking feeling that we will have to endure plenty of wet, damp, cold stuff first. Don't get your hopes up. Maybe here and there (cool not cold) but torch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 9, 2016 Author Share Posted March 9, 2016 Don't get your hopes up. Maybe here and there (cool not cold) but torch on. I'd like to make it through March and April fairly dry. Then when May rolls around maybe be slightly above normal precip. By then the sun is high enough and warm enough that even if you get a good rain, you can still dry out pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 e0 is too funny. and e1 is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Ummm.... 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 If you post the later panels its still mostly just a big cold rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 If you post the later panels its still mostly just a big cold rain storm. Well yea, there is some snow in PA, my post is half in jest.... enjoy the warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Ummm.... 6z GFS If only that high can stay put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 We are probably past the point where a system coming at us from the southwest can work. WAA precip out ahead of a system requires the cold be deep enough to put up resistance and hold its ground as the warm air overruns. That is unlikely this late in the season, especially in a year that has had difficult with cold to begin with. The type of anomolous cold we would need to make that work late March is beyond long odds. A more likely way, but still unlikely overall, to get snow that late would be from a system bombing to our southeast putting us in the best location for dynamic cooling under the upper low. Most of the post March 20 systems I can think of off the top of my head like march 42 and 58 and april fools 97 (even though it was a miss for our area) went down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 10, 2016 Author Share Posted March 10, 2016 I was looking at the 12z gfs hoping to see that winter had ended, but according to it, that is not the case. The euro didn't show any snow through about day 9, so maybe the gfs is incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 I was looking at the 12z gfs hoping to see that winter had ended, but according to it, that is not the case. The euro didn't show any snow through about day 9, so maybe the gfs is incorrect. no snow but the euro sets up a cold miserable rain storm. It's pretty obvious were headed towards a chilly wet period. Doubt it's cold enough for snow but I'll be keeping an eye and pulling for a miracle because why not. It's not like it's going to be sunny and 70 either way. If my choice is 40 and rain or 32 and snow ill take snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 no snow but the euro sets up a cold miserable rain storm. It's pretty obvious were headed towards a chilly wet period. Doubt it's cold enough for snow but I'll be keeping an eye and pulling for a miracle because why not. It's not like it's going to be sunny and 70 either way. If my choice is 40 and rain or 32 and snow ill take snow. seriously...you would take 32 and snow over 40 and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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