mitchnick Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Some good agreement with the npac shifting back to a favorable setup for below normal in the east starting the 3rd week of March. Probably will be nothing more than an annoying chill after some nice warm stuff but anyone holding out hope for another chance at wintry may like the trends.If any snow does fall after daylight savings time, we should probably count it for 16/17... it may need the help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 Some good agreement with the npac shifting back to a favorable setup for below normal in the east starting the 3rd week of March. Probably will be nothing more than an annoying chill after some nice warm stuff but anyone holding out hope for another chance at wintry may like the trends. When I saw you had made the last post in this thread I knew it wasn't going to be good news. Oh well, if we are going the BN route, let's just go whole hog. Let's do -25 departure and mega storm. March '93 showing up yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 When I saw you had made the last post in this thread I knew it wasn't going to be good news. Oh well, if we are going the BN route, let's just go whole hog. Let's do -25 departure and mega storm. March '93 showing up yet? It's way out there but now showing on the eps, para eps, and gefs. A lot of ridging in the ak/npac area so I could easily see some well below normal hp's drop down if the ensembles have the right idea. Late march snow is very hard to come by either way. I doubt we see the type of departures anywhere near what we saw the last couple years. EPS/Para EPS both show the 850 0c line into MD at the end of the runs. 0z GEFS much colder than that. Considering the spread that far out, there must be some pretty cold solutions in the mix. Personally, I'm over it and am rooting for seasonal temps. I don't need big + days. Just plenty of 50-60s and no maritime flow would be just fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Need 1.4" more in order to avoid having less than 100" for the season for the first time since I've lived here (12 years+). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Need 1.4" more in order to avoid having less than 100" for the season for the first time since I've lived here (12 years+).I'm rooting for you. The stress has got to be unbearable. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Oh to live somewhere where I could call 98.6" of snow a bad winter. That is my dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 7, 2016 Author Share Posted March 7, 2016 Oh to live somewhere where I could call 98.6" of snow a bad winter. That is my dream. You can. You just have to want to badly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Some good agreement with the npac shifting back to a favorable setup for below normal in the east starting the 3rd week of March. Probably will be nothing more than an annoying chill after some nice warm stuff but anyone holding out hope for another chance at wintry may like the trends. I am still keeping one eye on it, but where I live there is more of a realistic reason to. I am not pouring over every run though, were talking out in unicorn range still plus the time of year making it a low probability threat window even if everything lines up right, but I do a quick scan of all the long range ensemble guidance once a day and as you said things seem to be lining up for a period where the Pacific goes back to a configuration that would allow the trough to get back into the east, with the STJ undercutting blocking to our north. I am not going to post much though since it probably would just annoy most on here who seem to have fully moved on to spring. Don't be shocked if things turn colder and miserable towards the last 10 days of the month though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 If any snow does fall after daylight savings time, we should probably count it for 16/17... it may need the help. The extra hour of light always makes it more difficult for snow to accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 I am still keeping one eye on it, but where I live there is more of a realistic reason to. I am not pouring over every run though, were talking out in unicorn range still plus the time of year making it a low probability threat window even if everything lines up right, but I do a quick scan of all the long range ensemble guidance once a day and as you said things seem to be lining up for a period where the Pacific goes back to a configuration that would allow the trough to get back into the east, with the STJ undercutting blocking to our north. I am not going to post much though since it probably would just annoy most on here who seem to have fully moved on to spring. Don't be shocked if things turn colder and miserable towards the last 10 days of the month though. March and most of April are the typical transition months where you get bipolar weather. And bipolar posters. lol 12 GEFS kept the idea. A bit of a ridge sandwich on both coasts of Canada that looks to put the squeeze on a cold hp to drop down. Very much in line with the eps twins from 0z. The only weather I don't like in March is foggy/dreary/drizzly for 3+ days. Hopefully we don't get a blocked hp parked off the coast of Maine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 You can. You just have to want to badly enough. ....and have your spouse willing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 March and most of April are the typical transition months where you get bipolar weather. And bipolar posters. lol 12 GEFS kept the idea. A bit of a ridge sandwich on both coasts of Canada that looks to put the squeeze on a cold hp to drop down. Very much in line with the eps twins from 0z. The only weather I don't like in March is foggy/dreary/drizzly for 3+ days. Hopefully we don't get a blocked hp parked off the coast of Maine... Yeah, not expecting really anything later this month but it could potentially be more interesting if things work out just right (yeah, sure, haha!). I don't think we see anything more than a flake or two at the tail end of some kind of cold rain event, at least near the metro areas. Of course, if we can get a March 25 type of snow like in 2013 or 2014 that wouldn't be bad and I'd be all in for it! I don't like the bipolar spring weather you can get here either. It can go from 70s and very nice out...then the winds shift to the E-NE...and you can socked in with fog, drizzle, and mid-40s for days. Bleah! Terrible softball weather, that's for sure (been there, done that, have many a T-shirt)! That was perhaps one of the biggest things it took me awhile to get used to around here in April and May...even into early June sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The PARA GFS continues to show a pretty heavy signal towards a -NAO. Would be standard for us to finally get a nice block at the end of March/early April. Seems to happen so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The PARA GFS continues to show a pretty heavy signal towards a -NAO. Would be standard for us to finally get a nice block at the end of March/early April. Seems to happen so often.Oh, without fail, all warm winters love to come to an end with a Greenland block in April, just when everyone wants spring. I have no doubt the NAO will decide to go severely negative in about 3 weeks give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Look for a possible late March early April Snow storm. Several nino years featured this. Some notable ones were March 30 2003 2-10", April 2-5 1987(2 to 5 feet southern Apps lower to higher elevations respectively), April 18 1983 2-10" fell from Alabama to Virginia. Late May 1992 5 feet in the highest elevations of the Smokies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Look for a possible late March early April Snow storm. Several nino years featured this. Some notable ones were March 30 2003 2-10", April 2-5 1987(2 to 5 feet southern Apps lower to higher elevations respectively), April 18 1983 2-10" fell from Alabama to Virginia. Late May 1992 5 feet in the highest elevations of the Smokies. Got it, 5 feet of snow coming in early April. Starting preparations now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Need 1.4" more in order to avoid having less than 100" for the season for the first time since I've lived here (12 years+). I need 1 inch to make 40" total snowfall for the third year in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 ....and have your spouse willing as well. Yes, that is key . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Para Euro lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Para Euro lives! are both euros still running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 New Euro upgrade sucks. No snow through Day 8 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 New Euro upgrade sucks. No snow through Day 8 so far Worst meteorological spring ever. Cancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 are both euros still running? doubt it but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 doubt it but not sure. I think the GFS will be upgrading to the old Euro. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 78! 25 above normal. Warmest this early since 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Woo! Long live the torch! oops wrong thread. too much torchcitement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Models walking back from cold end of month yet? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Euro Ensemble look pretty cold Day 11-15 relative to average. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 EPS looks cold for the first few days of Spring. Looks like a possible coastal or 2 on the Control run between the 20th and the 23rd. Death to the torch! Winter lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Can't wait for a late march coastal cold rain. Followed by NE flow for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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