Ian Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 or have a closed ULL track right below us or on top of us. I saw the Carolinas a few years ago get historic snow while we were partly cloudy and mid 40's":( that could happen since it's a supernino hi leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 temps matter too That's an anomaly map Mitch. If my morning low that date is +1, I'll still be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2016 Author Share Posted March 1, 2016 It's a d17-18 event. Bowling ball style. It's happening! GEFS850.JPG With 850's so variable, I don't see how you can get an "average" 850 temp that would in turn allow you to do an anomaly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 That's an anomaly map Mitch. If my morning low that date is +1, I'll still be below freezing. I know it is. A March 17 that is not well below normal will not cut it here. That's what I also said. Maybe out your way, but not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 decent blocking showing up for Next November lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016030100&fh=8&xpos=0&ypos=373.3333432232895 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 decent blocking showing up for Next November lol http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon®ion=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016030100&fh=8&xpos=0&ypos=373.3333432232895 the nightmare scenario is what the Canadian is showing for next winter youzers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 the nightmare scenario is what the Canadian is showing for next winter youzers Another tropical Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Another tropical Christmas? Sort of but more like no winter at all door to door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Sort of but more like no winter at all door to door.with all the warmth in the other sst regions if all things were equal but less Nino maybe it would be a torch. We assume the Nino was the problem but really we had our best periods when the soi dropped. When the soi was more Niña like we torched. Perhaps all that saved us was the Nino forcing helping to promote a trough in the east at times or else it would have been dec wall to wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm surprised no mention of the 18z gefs. Trended towards semi interesting during the d13+ range. Prob running out of time but it's still the first half of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I'm surprised no mention of the 18z gefs. Trended towards semi interesting during the d13+ range. Prob running out of time but it's still the first half of march. I'm expecting something to pop up in mid March given the ridging up in Canada and the stj on roofs coming up. But I am skeptical we will have enough cold but I am still keeping one eye on it. I don't expect models to resolve it for a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 last nigths EPS really backed off on the look mid march. GEFS also lost it on the 6z run. Have to see if it holds but they both squash the STJ down into the gulf and continue the ridging acoss the mid lattitudes straight through. Would be warm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 last nigths EPS really backed off on the look mid march. GEFS also lost it on the 6z run. Have to see if it holds but they both squash the STJ down into the gulf and continue the ridging acoss the mid lattitudes straight through. Would be warm at least. Yea, not looking too exciting anymore. Not that it looked great to begin with but the trend towards another chance was starting to show. Until the last couple years I've typically drawn the imaginary date line of 3/10 in my yard for caring about snow. I'm ready to move on from this year already. I'm rooting for mild mid-late March where dreary backdoor fronts and drizzly maritime air is totally absent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yea, not looking too exciting anymore. Not that it looked great to begin with but the trend towards another chance was starting to show. Until the last couple years I've typically drawn the imaginary date line of 3/10 in my yard for caring about snow. I'm ready to move on from this year already. I'm rooting for mild mid-late March where dreary backdoor fronts and drizzly maritime air is totally absent. yep...just saw the eps. big step back. Looks warm and zonal. The pac looked awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0z ensemble mash was nice. But it's mid-march either way so bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 0z ensemble mash was nice. But it's mid-march either way so bleh. Interestingly...march of 99 period is showing up on CPC d11+. There's a march 58 date in there too but out of reach using the 3 day centered mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Interestingly...march of 99 period is showing up on CPC d11+. There's a march 58 date in there too but out of reach using the 3 day centered mean. Pac not very cooperative even with nice high lats. 1999 has been showing up fairly consistently along with 2010, though some 2010 hits are March when it was warm despite -NAO. I think by this time of year the NAO doesn't necessarily help a whole lot. Not a cold look for sure.. more like a near normal look overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Pac not very cooperative even with nice high lats. 1999 has been showing up fairly consistently along with 2010, though some 2010 hits are March when it was warm despite -NAO. I think by this time of year the NAO doesn't necessarily help a whole lot. Not a cold look for sure.. more like a near normal look overall. As said by others, it would be some sort of bowling ball making the most of what's available. Which of course is a low probability event. Last 2 years had abundant cold available. Definitely not going to be the case this year. Mid-late month is a long ways off. I'm not watching with much interest until if/when something specific pops up. Maybe we get nw track bowling ball and the severe thread gets active Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 As said by others, it would be some sort of bowling ball making the most of what's available. Which of course is a low probability event. Last 2 years had abundant cold available. Definitely not going to be the case this year. Mid-late month is a long ways off. I'm not watching with much interest until if/when something specific pops up. Maybe we get nw track bowling ball and the severe thread gets active we're most likely done after friday around here except perhaps some flakes in the air but that's an easy call most years by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Pac not very cooperative even with nice high lats. 1999 has been showing up fairly consistently along with 2010, though some 2010 hits are March when it was warm despite -NAO. I think by this time of year the NAO doesn't necessarily help a whole lot. Not a cold look for sure.. more like a near normal look overall. Actually the NAO correlation is pretty strong in March but the problem is the PAC is king right now. The EPO going positive is going to flood the mid latitudes with warmth and the NAO cant fight that off this year whith the Nino. If a year where the pacific is less dominant on the pattern perhaps it would be different. I still am not tossing the rest of the month just over one run of the models. But I already have admitted that given the pacific getting enough cold is going to be a lottery type long shot. We will need a perfect bombing system and just get lucky. So do you feel lucky.............................. PUNK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 As said by others, it would be some sort of bowling ball making the most of what's available. Which of course is a low probability event. Last 2 years had abundant cold available. Definitely not going to be the case this year. Mid-late month is a long ways off. I'm not watching with much interest until if/when something specific pops up. Maybe we get nw track bowling ball and the severe thread gets active You echo my thoughts as usual. Our only remaining hope is a march 58 kind of H5 low cutting off and bombing over us. It was before most of our times but that storm started out as a warmish rain everywhere type system then transitioned to snow as the storm bombed out and created its own cold. Super rare type event for sure but it has been over 5 decades so perhaps were due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Actually the NAO correlation is pretty strong in March but the problem is the PAC is king right now. The EPO going positive is going to flood the mid latitudes with warmth and the NAO cant fight that off this year whith the Nino. If a year where the pacific is less dominant on the pattern perhaps it would be different. I still am not tossing the rest of the month just over one run of the models. But I already have admitted that given the pacific getting enough cold is going to be a lottery type long shot. We will need a perfect bombing system and just get lucky. So do you feel lucky.............................. PUNK Well that's not really what I meant. I meant more it's not quite as 'sure' a thing as during the heart of winter. 2010 had a good -NAO in March and it was warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Hoping for a once in a lifetime late Mar bomb isn't a great strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Well that's not really what I meant. I meant more it's not quite as 'sure' a thing as during the heart of winter. 2010 had a good -NAO in March and it was warm. I agree you need more to go right in March then just one telleconnection, but part of that could also be that a good pattern that doesn't produce in January will probably at least be cold and have some snow even if its just pity flakes. In march we can have a great 10 day pattern but if a storm doesn't hit just right it ends up being 50 degrees each day and no one even realizes it was close to something good. 2010 falls in that category. There were two chances I can remember, one was excellent early in the month, where the storm just didnt work out. In the one cast it cut, in the other a perfect trough got wasted because a front runner took the energy OTS then the second wave got suppressed. In that case while it was snowing in NC we were 50 degrees and had no idea how close we were to a big snowstorm had the two peices phased instead of pinwheeled. In march a good pattern that just doesn't produce isnt much different from a bad one in terms of ground truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Hoping for a once in a lifetime late Mar bomb isn't a great strategy. neither is a hail mary pass but if your down by 6 points with 3 seconds left at your own 40 yard line, what other choice do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Hoping for a once in a lifetime late Mar bomb isn't a great strategy. we were counting on a 1983 type hecs to save out warm winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 neither is a hail mary pass but if your down by 6 points with 3 seconds left at your own 40 yard line, what other choice do you have? The Green Bay Packers approve of this sentiment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Mid 70's next week? I can't wait. We're done with winter. I can get my life back Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Mid 70's next week? I can't wait. We're done with winter. I can get my life back Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Mid 70s in NDJF = epic fail. Mid 70s in MAMJJASO = epic win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2016 Author Share Posted March 3, 2016 Mid 70s in NDJF = epic fail. Mid 70s in MAMJJASO = epic win. So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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