psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Mitch, the mean is always low out in time. There is rarely enough consensus to spike the mean until you get inside of 7-8 days. I always look for clusters within the members and get an idea of the upside. Downside is almost always zero d7+. The blizzard was as rare in model land as it was in reality. you ninja me 3 times a day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Once you see a cluster that looks good then just watch for more members joining the party. Right now the d8-11 has some support but it's limited. That will go 1 of 2 directions the coming days. Lol. Either way it won't be a big event from what it looks like right now. 4-8" would be top end from what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Mitch, the mean is always low out in time. There is rarely enough consensus to spike the mean until you get inside of 7-8 days. I always look for clusters within the members and get an idea of the upside. Downside is almost always zero d7+. The blizzard was as rare in model land as it was in reality. Well, it hasn't been above 2" for any period (except the one day last week), so my point is it has been lousy for the last month and justifiably so regardless of what the members or clusters have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 My point, really, is until the mean shows something substantial, I'm going to assume low probability on anything shown on the 10-day operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 My point, really, is until the mean shows something substantial, I'm going to assume low probability on anything shown on the 10-day operational runs. Good strategy. This upcoming storm looked great 5 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Good strategy. This upcoming storm looked great 5 days ago.nice try, but to deny the accuracy of my statement as to what the ensembles have shown is to deny the truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 nice try, but to deny the accuracy of my statement as to what the ensembles have shown is to deny the truthGotta side with Randy here....all 3 major ens means at day SEVEN all had textbook SECS/MECS signals irt the upcoming storm. Guidance failed us miserably in the medium-long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 nice try, but to deny the accuracy of my statement as to what the ensembles have shown is to deny the truth huh??? I'm 100% serious..I'm agreeing with what you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gotta side with Randy here....all 3 major ens means at day SEVEN all had textbook SECS/MECS signals irt the upcoming storm. Guidance failed us miserably in the medium-long range. First of all, I don't think you interpreted the exchange between mitchnick and Randy correctly. Second of all, the highlighted part is such a mindless statement... Guidance didn't fail "us." Did you not read all the skepticism about the 'thread the needle' pattern in the discussion threads? Even if one Euro ensemble run days ago got people to be a bit less skeptical, there was never a full buy-in for a snowstorm in this subforum for this upcoming storm. And definitely, no one in here described a "textbook SECS/MECS signal" like you just characterized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 huh??? I'm 100% serious..I'm agreeing with what you said. Sorry. You do sarcastic too well, so I just figured. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Mitchnick, your gut feeling worked pretty well for February. How does it feel for March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gotta side with Randy here....all 3 major ens means at day SEVEN all had textbook SECS/MECS signals irt the upcoming storm. Guidance failed us miserably in the medium-long range.My point wasn't wrt any particular storm. I was just saying that the euro snowfall ensemble mean has been a relatively accurate predictor of snow in this area since the end of January so I haven't found the need to disect the individual ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Mitchnick, your gut feeling worked pretty well for February. How does it feel for March? Although not as strong as late January, I'm having a hard time getting excited for the rest of the "winter." Even if the models hit the upper pattern right, we're still fighting warm surface temps. The undeniable product of a super Niño. I'll be pleasantly surprised, if not shocked, if bwi manages to get a moderate or greater event. I'm admittedly more vague at this point because models have just done a bit of a 180 in the past 24 hours. Who knows if the look goes away in the next 24. Otoh, looking at it rationally, should we really expect the main problem with this winter, surface temps, to improve at the end of February or in March? Do I need to answer that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Once you see a cluster that looks good then just watch for more members joining the party. Right now the d8-11 has some support but it's limited. That will go 1 of 2 directions the coming days. Lol. Either way it won't be a big event from what it looks like right now. 4-8" would be top end from what I'm seeing. 4-8 is the new dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Tremendous look on the 00z GFS @ 220 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Tremendous look on the 00z GFS @ 220 hrs Inland runner on GFS lol. Meanwhile, GGEM cancels winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Remember just 6 hours ago how good everything looked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Remember just 6 hours ago how good everything looked? 12z CMC 0z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 12z CMC 0z CMC You're shocked? The CMC sucks, always has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 00Z GEFS 500's has 2 possible windows of opportunity. Roughly day 8-9 with something tracking through the general area from our west-southwest, though the setup is very marginal and argues better chances north and west of 95. And day 11-13 which has a somewhat strong signal for this far out for something pulling up from the gulf/deep south to our south and east and would favor a good portion of our area. Ensemble snowfall maps reflect both opportunities with day 8-9 favoring far north and west and day 11-13 the general region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Both Euro and CMC ensembles also favor something through day 8-9 though as with the GEFS they would favor far north and west of 95. CMC has a somewhat decent signal for the day 11-13 window with something pulling up from our south but the EPS, at best, has the slightest hint for that window. The EPS does bump up the snowfall maps an 1 1/2-2 inches through the day 10-15 period which is a decent amount at long range so it is seeing the potential for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Both Euro and CMC ensembles also favor something through day 8-9 though as with the GEFS they would favor far north and west of 95. CMC has a somewhat decent signal for the day 11-13 window with something pulling up from our south but the EPS, at best, has the slightest hint for that window. The EPS does bump up the snowfall maps an 1 1/2-2 inches through the day 10-15 period which is a decent amount at long range so it is seeing the potential for something. The 7-10 day period has been the window I have been interested in. If we cant get something decent there with the h5 look being advertised, my interest in winter is going to dramatically wane. Looking out beyond that we are staring right at Spring, and this has hardly been the winter to deliver on cold even when things do look "good" in the high latitudes. The period with the big storm was not that cold for very long, basically one week leading in, and that with the epic block everyone was drooling over in the means, and in peak climo period for cold. Anyway, it seems that piece of the PV wobbling around under the block, and its exact location in the upcoming 7-10 day period will play a big role. Just look at the dramatic shifts in the operational runs over the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 7-10 day period has been the window I have been interested in. If we cant get something decent there with the h5 look being advertised, my interest in winter is going to dramatically wane. Looking out beyond that we are staring right at Spring, and this has hardly been the winter to deliver on cold even when things do look "good" in the high latitudes. The period with the big storm was not that cold for very long, basically one week leading in, and that with the epic block everyone was drooling over in the means, and in peak climo period for cold. Anyway, it seems that piece of the PV wobbling around under the block, and its exact location in the upcoming 7-10 day period will play a big role. Just look at the dramatic shifts in the operational runs over the last 12 hours. Your last sentence sums it up perfectly. On the 6z gfs yesterday it had 850s next Sunday morning here at -20. On its run this morning it looks like I'd be about +1 or 2. Subtle shift. I think I'm just gonna start looking 3 to 4 days realizing that after a couple of weeks of doing it that it probably won't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Inland runner on GFS lol. Meanwhile, GGEM cancels winter. 6z GFS continues the theme of not as cold and increasing threat for warmth. we may end up getting forked when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 6z GFS continues the theme of not as cold and increasing threat for warmth. we may end up getting forked when all is said and done. It's nearly March. Snow is now getting exponentially harder to come by. I know there are folks who keep holding onto this idea of a backloaded winter because of El Nino etc, but this has been anything BUT a 'normal' El Nino analogue. One feature that has haunted us all season long is the LR models showing VERY favorable teleconnections and then pulling the rug out from under us as the time approaches. In actuality, we only had a few brief transient (mostly) periods with favorable EPO/AO/NAO/PNA even though guidance insisted "things setup perfectly in 10 days". This was the winter of Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. It's over for all intents and purposes.....I see nothing significant on any guidance attm through at least March 5 (I emphasize "significant"). And by that point, unless we can pull a March 93 or March 1888 (one-in-100 year storms) out of the hat later in March, we probably wont be adding much to our annual snow totals. I give this winter overall a C- and am ready for surf fishing and bikini watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The 7-10 day period has been the window I have been interested in. If we cant get something decent there with the h5 look being advertised, my interest in winter is going to dramatically wane. Looking out beyond that we are staring right at Spring, and this has hardly been the winter to deliver on cold even when things do look "good" in the high latitudes. The period with the big storm was not that cold for very long, basically one week leading in, and that with the epic block everyone was drooling over in the means, and in peak climo period for cold. Anyway, it seems that piece of the PV wobbling around under the block, and its exact location in the upcoming 7-10 day period will play a big role. Just look at the dramatic shifts in the operational runs over the last 12 hours. Not going to over think it or look to deeply but looking at the ensembles as they stand now I would think it wouldn't take to much to put our whole region into play for the 7-9 day period. Move that PV lobe southeast or even possibly south 50 to 100 miles probably shifts the low track underneath us and puts the whole region into play IF the temps cooperate. Definitely doable with 7+ days but just as likely to shift elsewhere as well. Just a wag but I am not sure I would write off anything past that event yet either. The PV is going through some major gyrations and showing a large displacement and just a couple runs ago it looked as if it was wanting to split. Not an expert whatsoever but I would think if that were to break right it could overcome the warmer averages of march for our region. I will have to go back and look but if I remember correctly we have had some luck with that for late season events if not some major ones. Edit: And yes, when you start pulling out the PV displacement or split then you know you are in dire straits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I'm with you although I could see one or two more times where the models will take us to the ledge of a decent event and but the result will be a nice jump off. If I put a fence around the HECS it was more like a D+. at least we probably won't be dealing with a super nino anytime soon. Still, tough to really punt on 22 Feb with how much the models have waffled back and forth. if we are not tracking something by the weekend I will throw my cargo shorts in the wash and begin to consider cutting out snack foods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Both Euro and CMC ensembles also favor something through day 8-9 though as with the GEFS they would favor far north and west of 95. CMC has a somewhat decent signal for the day 11-13 window with something pulling up from our south but the EPS, at best, has the slightest hint for that window. The EPS does bump up the snowfall maps an 1 1/2-2 inches through the day 10-15 period which is a decent amount at long range so it is seeing the potential for something.Again, the eps snowfall mean is lousy imho with a 15 day total of 1.5-2" for dca/bwi. Nothing new and nothing exciting compared to the same look that's been on the mean since the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 The common theme killing threats during a period of great teleconnections right now is still too much Atlantic ridging and the displaced pv being too compact and or just a little north of where we need it this time of year. It's still an overall good look to our north though so I'm not jumping yet. For the same reasons I expected the last threat to trend worse because of a crap pattern I still expect the day 6-10 period to trend better. After that is murky. We need the stj to undercut and pull the trough into the south. Right now that's iffy. The weeklies had that look but recently most runs keep any troughs centered north of us. That's not a good look in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Again, the eps snowfall mean is lousy imho with a 15 day total of 1.5-2" for dca/bwi. Nothing new and nothing exciting compared to the same look that's been on the mean since the end of January. For the dead of winter with cold temp avgs a 2 inch mean at long range is probably mostly noise. But when you are talking early march and fighting warmer temps I am not sure you can as easily dismiss it especially with roughly 2 inches falling in a 4-5 day window. But we have been sucking wind lately with the longer range so I can understand where you are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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