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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha

this looks like the most unexciting March event in a long time. Early march is usually a good time for bombs and wild events. this event seems to tame and fruitless...thats why im looking at fantasy mid march haha. Plus i want to get the most of my last month with weatherbell

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Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha

yea it needs more space. It's crushed in between two other systems with no room to amplify. I'm giving it another day or two though to show attend towards something more significant. There are some hints that it possibly could. Your right March helps it needs way less space now then earlier. If it stays a 1-4" type thing I'll probably turn my attention to chasing ji's mid month ghost. I've seen enough snow this year not to waste much time chasing 2" in March. It wouldn't shock me if today or tomorrow this trended towards something more significant at least somewhere. The storm giving some light snow to Montreal today was the Carrolina snowstorm a week ago. The Detroit snow tomorrow was a possible snow here a week ago. Too early to declare this anything yet.
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yea it needs more space. It's crushed in between two other systems with no room to amplify. I'm giving it another day or two though to show attend towards something more significant. There are some hints that it possibly could. Your right March helps it needs way less space now then earlier. If it stays a 1-4" type thing I'll probably turn my attention to chasing ji's mid month ghost. I've seen enough snow this year not to waste much time chasing 2" in March. It wouldn't shock me if today or tomorrow this trended towards something more significant at least somewhere. The storm giving some light snow to Montreal today was the Carrolina snowstorm a week ago. The Detroit snow tomorrow was a possible snow here a week ago. Too early to declare this anything yet.

 

Most common theme of the winter.

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yea it needs more space. It's crushed in between two other systems with no room to amplify. I'm giving it another day or two though to show attend towards something more significant. There are some hints that it possibly could. Your right March helps it needs way less space now then earlier. If it stays a 1-4" type thing I'll probably turn my attention to chasing ji's mid month ghost. I've seen enough snow this year not to waste much time chasing 2" in March. It wouldn't shock me if today or tomorrow this trended towards something more significant at least somewhere. The storm giving some light snow to Montreal today was the Carrolina snowstorm a week ago. The Detroit snow tomorrow was a possible snow here a week ago. Too early to declare this anything yet.

we need a 3/8/84-type event

although it wasn't that great for DCA or IAD, BWI on north and east did real well

interestingly, 3/5/84 was showing up a lot on the super ensemble

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February is going to go down as an outlier with strong + enso. Especially in the sierras/rockies. Very paltry in the snow/precip dept through the entire region. Luckily they all had a hot start and built a base early in the season. My friends who still live in CO said this was the worst Nino snow year they can remember. Feb was a total suckfest apparently. 

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February is going to go down as an outlier with strong + enso. Especially in the sierras/rockies. Very paltry in the snow/precip dept through the entire region. Luckily they all had a hot start and built a base early in the season. My friends who still live in CO said this was the worst Nino snow year they can remember. Feb was a total suckfest apparently. 

 

I wonder if they will rebound this month though - a few of the guys I follow on weather twitter noting that southern CA finally looks like it may be bet 10 days down the road - maybe if so that will translate to that part of the Rockies...

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It's still decent for some snow...maybe the GFS will beef it up in coming runs.

 

Nice to see some run to run consistency from the GFS. The difference from 6z was pretty marginal overall. A wobble. Don't mind the earlier start time. Dead of night is pretty key unless we get blasted. Which isn't happening so best to root for an overnight whatever falls sticks. 

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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS IMPACT
ON THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GENERALLY THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.
THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORGE THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL WELL OFF THE WEST COAST...SO ATTM STILL UNABLE TO DETERMINE
WHICH MODEL IS GRABBING INITIALIZATION THE BEST. ANALYZING THE 00Z
MODEL SUITE...GENERAL CONSENSUS BUILDS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE AXIS
NORTH ACROSS THE MT WEST 12Z THURS MORNING...LEADING TO THE ENERGY
PIECE TO DIVE SOUTH AND THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE
WAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE
NORTHEAST...SUPPRESSING THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND KEEPING
MINIMAL ORGANIZATION UNTIL IT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. IN TERMS
OF WX/SNOW AMTS...THE 00Z ECMWF RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUN...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. 00Z GFS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...2-4 INCHES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
ECMWF. PLAYING INTO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITION TO THE QPF AMTS IS
THE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY THE MUCH COLDER
SOLUTION WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7 DEGREES CELSIUS WHILE THE GFS
HOVERS CLOSER TO ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION...HIGHLIGHTING IN THE HWO AS WELL ON ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS.
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Nice to see some run to run consistency from the GFS. The difference from 6z was pretty marginal overall. A wobble. Don't mind the earlier start time. Dead of night is pretty key unless we get blasted. Which isn't happening so best to root for an overnight whatever falls sticks. 

I was thinking the same thing..it's finally start to be consistent.  If we can get up to 6" out of this, I'd be thrilled.

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12z GFS has near perfect H placement over Western Maine.  Storm track looks a little South and out to sea.  What would it take for that L to strengthen a little and cut up the coast?

sharper trough

 

but it can't because of the next system on its tail, a probably a few other reasons too

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_093_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=093&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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its starting to hit me. This winter is nearly over. January was amazing. February was frustrating. December was incredible....incredibly bad but it seems like outside the january blizzard, i got the most sleep ive gotten in a winter in a long time

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