Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 00z euro crushed us with an inch Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha this looks like the most unexciting March event in a long time. Early march is usually a good time for bombs and wild events. this event seems to tame and fruitless...thats why im looking at fantasy mid march haha. Plus i want to get the most of my last month with weatherbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 84 hr. nam sim/radar fwiw nam has a northern stream and southern stream low http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I am in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 ive seen about several 1/100 year events since 1993 so i dont rule anything out anymore. especially now I'm not ruling it out just playing contrarian and saying I understand the lack of enthusiasm over a Hail Mary type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I am in Well, that IS my next 4 day off work cycle, so I'd say you are good...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Upside isn't great in general. All comes down to how much amplification the vort can squeeze out of a notsogreat setup. At least it's March. Time of year probably helps a little with a setup like this. Mid Jan would probably be virga. haha yea it needs more space. It's crushed in between two other systems with no room to amplify. I'm giving it another day or two though to show attend towards something more significant. There are some hints that it possibly could. Your right March helps it needs way less space now then earlier. If it stays a 1-4" type thing I'll probably turn my attention to chasing ji's mid month ghost. I've seen enough snow this year not to waste much time chasing 2" in March. It wouldn't shock me if today or tomorrow this trended towards something more significant at least somewhere. The storm giving some light snow to Montreal today was the Carrolina snowstorm a week ago. The Detroit snow tomorrow was a possible snow here a week ago. Too early to declare this anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 29, 2016 Author Share Posted February 29, 2016 yea it needs more space. It's crushed in between two other systems with no room to amplify. I'm giving it another day or two though to show attend towards something more significant. There are some hints that it possibly could. Your right March helps it needs way less space now then earlier. If it stays a 1-4" type thing I'll probably turn my attention to chasing ji's mid month ghost. I've seen enough snow this year not to waste much time chasing 2" in March. It wouldn't shock me if today or tomorrow this trended towards something more significant at least somewhere. The storm giving some light snow to Montreal today was the Carrolina snowstorm a week ago. The Detroit snow tomorrow was a possible snow here a week ago. Too early to declare this anything yet. Most common theme of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 yea it needs more space. It's crushed in between two other systems with no room to amplify. I'm giving it another day or two though to show attend towards something more significant. There are some hints that it possibly could. Your right March helps it needs way less space now then earlier. If it stays a 1-4" type thing I'll probably turn my attention to chasing ji's mid month ghost. I've seen enough snow this year not to waste much time chasing 2" in March. It wouldn't shock me if today or tomorrow this trended towards something more significant at least somewhere. The storm giving some light snow to Montreal today was the Carrolina snowstorm a week ago. The Detroit snow tomorrow was a possible snow here a week ago. Too early to declare this anything yet. we need a 3/8/84-type event although it wasn't that great for DCA or IAD, BWI on north and east did real well interestingly, 3/5/84 was showing up a lot on the super ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 February is going to go down as an outlier with strong + enso. Especially in the sierras/rockies. Very paltry in the snow/precip dept through the entire region. Luckily they all had a hot start and built a base early in the season. My friends who still live in CO said this was the worst Nino snow year they can remember. Feb was a total suckfest apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Wave looks a bit weaker than 6z @ 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 February is going to go down as an outlier with strong + enso. Especially in the sierras/rockies. Very paltry in the snow/precip dept through the entire region. Luckily they all had a hot start and built a base early in the season. My friends who still live in CO said this was the worst Nino snow year they can remember. Feb was a total suckfest apparently. I wonder if they will rebound this month though - a few of the guys I follow on weather twitter noting that southern CA finally looks like it may be bet 10 days down the road - maybe if so that will translate to that part of the Rockies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Slightly Weaker storm, but earlier start time. Question is how much. Ehh, it is a good bit drier. Overnight storm, 2-3", Central MD, I would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's still decent for some snow...maybe the GFS will beef it up in coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Thinking 2-4" is our window. Slight boom lolli to 6 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 It's still decent for some snow...maybe the GFS will beef it up in coming runs. Nice to see some run to run consistency from the GFS. The difference from 6z was pretty marginal overall. A wobble. Don't mind the earlier start time. Dead of night is pretty key unless we get blasted. Which isn't happening so best to root for an overnight whatever falls sticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 such a hostile environment for a good storm. Dissapointing if this is our only March event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THEPASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK AND ITS IMPACTON THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION GENERALLY THURS NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT.THE PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORGE THIS SYSTEM ISSTILL WELL OFF THE WEST COAST...SO ATTM STILL UNABLE TO DETERMINEWHICH MODEL IS GRABBING INITIALIZATION THE BEST. ANALYZING THE 00ZMODEL SUITE...GENERAL CONSENSUS BUILDS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE AXISNORTH ACROSS THE MT WEST 12Z THURS MORNING...LEADING TO THE ENERGYPIECE TO DIVE SOUTH AND THEN PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERNUS. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEWAKE OF THE MID WEEK SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THENORTHEAST...SUPPRESSING THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND KEEPINGMINIMAL ORGANIZATION UNTIL IT PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST. IN TERMSOF WX/SNOW AMTS...THE 00Z ECMWF RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN THEPREVIOUS RUN...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES. 00Z GFS SLIGHTLYHIGHER...2-4 INCHES...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY FURTHER NORTH THAN THEECMWF. PLAYING INTO THE UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITION TO THE QPF AMTS ISTHE TEMPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY THE MUCH COLDERSOLUTION WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -7 DEGREES CELSIUS WHILE THE GFSHOVERS CLOSER TO ZERO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THISSITUATION...HIGHLIGHTING IN THE HWO AS WELL ON ANY POTENTIALIMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Nice to see some run to run consistency from the GFS. The difference from 6z was pretty marginal overall. A wobble. Don't mind the earlier start time. Dead of night is pretty key unless we get blasted. Which isn't happening so best to root for an overnight whatever falls sticks. I was thinking the same thing..it's finally start to be consistent. If we can get up to 6" out of this, I'd be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z GFS has near perfect H placement over Western Maine. Storm track looks a little South and out to sea. What would it take for that L to strengthen a little and cut up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z GFS has near perfect H placement over Western Maine. Storm track looks a little South and out to sea. What would it take for that L to strengthen a little and cut up the coast? sharper trough but it can't because of the next system on its tail, a probably a few other reasons too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_093_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=093&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No euro no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 12z GFS is nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 No euro no go. dr no tried hard to say no to the Jan blizzard too. It was always the dullest driest model solution. i hate that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 All in! 6+ Inches in Annapolis - you heard it here first! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 its starting to hit me. This winter is nearly over. January was amazing. February was frustrating. December was incredible....incredibly bad but it seems like outside the january blizzard, i got the most sleep ive gotten in a winter in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 next year should be rocking. Probably our last good winter till 2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 dr no tried hard to say no to the Jan blizzard too. It was always the dullest driest model solution. i hate that modeluhh ok sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Canadian is a beast, but not sure about surface temps after 12z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Canadian is a beast, but not sure about surface temps after 12z Friday B and W maps looks excellent, but waiting for the meteogram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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