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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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I'm not going to over analyze this at 100+ hours. We're in a good spot overall. Given the models performance and tendencies lately I wouldn't want this any further north at this point. Almost everything has trended more amped from a week out. I said before I don't want a hit just to get the models to stop squashing it to oblivion. I'm fine with where it is now.

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Both can be overcome with decent rates. Looks like it will be cold enough aloft. Having most of it fall at night into the morning would also help.

if the air is cold enough it will stick. We've had this debate many times. Denver has had big snows the day after it was 75. In November 1995 I was 67 and 6 hours later had 4"

Otg. If it's 35 it won't work but then the problem is the air not the ground. People worry about ground temps too much.

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if the air is cold enough it will stick. We've had this debate many times. Denver has had big snows the day after it was 75. In November 1995 I was 67 and 6 hours later had 4"

Otg. If it's 35 it won't work but then the problem is the air not the ground. People worry about ground temps too much.

sir I,ve seen it snow in cent md all day with temp at 38, it was supposed to change to rain, never did, and stuck to 9 in

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if the air is cold enough it will stick. We've had this debate many times. Denver has had big snows the day after it was 75. In November 1995 I was 67 and 6 hours later had 4"

Otg. If it's 35 it won't work but then the problem is the air not the ground. People worry about ground temps too much.

 

I saw that in southeast PA back in 2000 or so.  Was 70-ish on Saturday, woke up Sunday to a couple inches on the ground

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Anyone else think the 6z GEFS might be jumping the slp a little too quickly between 96 and 102? At 96 it is over Kentucky, 6 hours later at 102 it is off the SC coast. I guess it isnt unheard of, just seems too fast in this situation to me. You guys in this subforum are in a decent spot imo. Expecting a fringe-job up my way.

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i still dont think winter is over after the warm shot. Euro day 15-16 EPS shows 850 anomlies in our area way below normal

I've said I think mid month the ridging pulls back north over Canada and a big storm runs across under it. But cold may be very hard to come by at that point and honestly were in a much better spot then a lot of people in here so I understand them tuning that period out. Even here we would need a perfect bomb to get it to work. It won't be a really cold pattern. Would need a March 58 type storm.
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I've said I think mid month the ridging pulls back north over Canada and a big storm runs across under it. But cold may be very hard to come by at that point and honestly were in a much better spot then a lot of people in here so I understand them tuning that period out. Even here we would need a perfect bomb to get it to work. It won't be a really cold pattern. Would need a March 58 type storm.

there is a hint of that in the modeling.EPS has a 500mb low anomoly south of us with colder than normal 850s at Day 14-15

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i still dont think winter is over after the warm shot. Euro day 15-16 EPS shows 850 anomlies in our area way below normal

 

Where are you seeing below normal 850's? EPS is a toaster straight through the end. 6z GEFS does show the cold pocket/trough d15-16 but that's the first piece of guidance to have it. 

 

Winter may show it's face again in March but inside of the next 15 days looks pretty bleak beyond this coming weekend. 

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We seem to finally have general consensus across the ops with track of the vort and strength of the storm. Hopefully nothing goes haywire now and we can start to iron out details. Seems like the chance of snow falling is pretty high. How much if any accumulation is another story. lol

00z euro crushed us with an inch

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Where are you seeing below normal 850's? EPS is a toaster straight through the end. 6z GEFS does show the cold pocket/trough d15-16 but that's the first piece of guidance to have it. 

 

Winter may show it's face again in March but inside of the next 15 days looks pretty bleak beyond this coming weekend. 

LOL..it was the EPS Control..sorry

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06z GFS is pretty similar to what the GGEM has been showing for the last 5 runs.  It's a big shift by the GFS in the last day, but I wonder if it has swung too far, with the 00z Euro and Ukie runs looking more suppressed.  12z runs should be interesting.

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LOL..it was the EPS Control..sorry

the gfs has been hinting for a while. Eps is holding the trough back in Texas. Some of the individuals show the potential though. I think given the look in Canada eventually we get something to come across under the ridge but it may be too late and it would have to bomb to have any shot. It will be cut off from any cold initially. March 58 worked out that way but that was such a fluke 1/100 year type storm and it wasn't even that good in the cities or southeast.
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the gfs has been hinting for a while. Eps is holding the trough back in Texas. Some of the individuals show the potential though. I think given the look in Canada eventually we get something to come across under the ridge but it may be too late and it would have to bomb to have any shot. It will be cut off from any cold initially. March 58 worked out that way but that was such a fluke 1/100 year type storm and it wasn't even that good in the cities or southeast.

ive seen about several 1/100 year events since 1993 so i dont rule anything out anymore. especially now

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