psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I'm not going to over analyze this at 100+ hours. We're in a good spot overall. Given the models performance and tendencies lately I wouldn't want this any further north at this point. Almost everything has trended more amped from a week out. I said before I don't want a hit just to get the models to stop squashing it to oblivion. I'm fine with where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I just want this final one. 3 inches and I am fine with the end of winter. I will rake the yard and buy mulch like a suburban warrior. I did like that the surface on the 6z isn't torching and it comes over night. The warm ground might be issue as always. I would worry about warm air more and warm ground less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I would worry about warm air more and warm ground less Both can be overcome with decent rates. Looks like it will be cold enough aloft. Having most of it fall at night into the morning would also help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Gfs 6z at bwi looks great. Change the url station call letters to get a location closer to your back yard http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kbwi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Both can be overcome with decent rates. Looks like it will be cold enough aloft. Having most of it fall at night into the morning would also help. if the air is cold enough it will stick. We've had this debate many times. Denver has had big snows the day after it was 75. In November 1995 I was 67 and 6 hours later had 4"Otg. If it's 35 it won't work but then the problem is the air not the ground. People worry about ground temps too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 if the air is cold enough it will stick. We've had this debate many times. Denver has had big snows the day after it was 75. In November 1995 I was 67 and 6 hours later had 4" Otg. If it's 35 it won't work but then the problem is the air not the ground. People worry about ground temps too much. sir I,ve seen it snow in cent md all day with temp at 38, it was supposed to change to rain, never did, and stuck to 9 in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 if the air is cold enough it will stick. We've had this debate many times. Denver has had big snows the day after it was 75. In November 1995 I was 67 and 6 hours later had 4" Otg. If it's 35 it won't work but then the problem is the air not the ground. People worry about ground temps too much. I saw that in southeast PA back in 2000 or so. Was 70-ish on Saturday, woke up Sunday to a couple inches on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I saw that in southeast PA back in 2000 or so. Was 70-ish on Saturday, woke up Sunday to a couple inches on the ground saw something similar here, was very warm, cold front came thru snowed to 6 in in little over 8 hrs, overnight to earely morn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Anyone else think the 6z GEFS might be jumping the slp a little too quickly between 96 and 102? At 96 it is over Kentucky, 6 hours later at 102 it is off the SC coast. I guess it isnt unheard of, just seems too fast in this situation to me. You guys in this subforum are in a decent spot imo. Expecting a fringe-job up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 6z parallel GFS is a big hit. We'd lose surface in the daytime on Friday but it's a good amount of QPF. ETA: looks like the 1 inch line gets close to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Image please? At work currently http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_114_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06¶m=precip_p24&fhr=114&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160229+06+UTC&ps=&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 i still dont think winter is over after the warm shot. Euro day 15-16 EPS shows 850 anomlies in our area way below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Image please? At work currently me too. It's ok but not some huge hit like he made it sound. Looks like about .5 qpf Baltimore and about .3-.4 north of there. There is some higher qpf southeast of DC but it's mostly rain according to temps.ETA: it's about where I would want it right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 06z Para GFS 24hr precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 i still dont think winter is over after the warm shot. Euro day 15-16 EPS shows 850 anomlies in our area way below normal I've said I think mid month the ridging pulls back north over Canada and a big storm runs across under it. But cold may be very hard to come by at that point and honestly were in a much better spot then a lot of people in here so I understand them tuning that period out. Even here we would need a perfect bomb to get it to work. It won't be a really cold pattern. Would need a March 58 type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I've said I think mid month the ridging pulls back north over Canada and a big storm runs across under it. But cold may be very hard to come by at that point and honestly were in a much better spot then a lot of people in here so I understand them tuning that period out. Even here we would need a perfect bomb to get it to work. It won't be a really cold pattern. Would need a March 58 type storm. there is a hint of that in the modeling.EPS has a 500mb low anomoly south of us with colder than normal 850s at Day 14-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I would be fun to get NAM'ed a couple more times before its all over. But I consider this a thread the needle kind of deal as well with the vort and the 850s needing to be just right...not to mention the surface which is really my fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 I would be fun to get NAM'ed a couple more times before its all over. But I consider this a thread the needle kind of deal as well with the vort and the 850s needing to be just right...not to mention the surface which is really my fear At least we have high pressure in the right spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 there is a hint of that in the modeling.EPS has a 500mb low anomoly south of us with colder than normal 850s at Day 14-15im keeping an eye on it but not posting much because we have a more eminent threat and most don't want to talk about mid March ghosts. But I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 At least we have high pressure in the right spot for this one. Yes. looking at 84hr from 12z I would think at least a bit of snow would be headed in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 We seem to finally have general consensus across the ops with track of the vort and strength of the storm. Hopefully nothing goes haywire now and we can start to iron out details. Seems like the chance of snow falling is pretty high. How much if any accumulation is another story. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 there is a hint of that in the modeling.EPS has a 500mb low anomoly south of us with colder than normal 850s at Day 14-15 Looking at the EPS 15 day and the weeklies the 850's are torching @ day 14-15 with the freezing line just south of the Canadian border. Where are you seeing these cold anomalies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 i still dont think winter is over after the warm shot. Euro day 15-16 EPS shows 850 anomlies in our area way below normal Where are you seeing below normal 850's? EPS is a toaster straight through the end. 6z GEFS does show the cold pocket/trough d15-16 but that's the first piece of guidance to have it. Winter may show it's face again in March but inside of the next 15 days looks pretty bleak beyond this coming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 We seem to finally have general consensus across the ops with track of the vort and strength of the storm. Hopefully nothing goes haywire now and we can start to iron out details. Seems like the chance of snow falling is pretty high. How much if any accumulation is another story. lol 00z euro crushed us with an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Where are you seeing below normal 850's? EPS is a toaster straight through the end. 6z GEFS does show the cold pocket/trough d15-16 but that's the first piece of guidance to have it. Winter may show it's face again in March but inside of the next 15 days looks pretty bleak beyond this coming weekend. LOL..it was the EPS Control..sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 06z GFS is pretty similar to what the GGEM has been showing for the last 5 runs. It's a big shift by the GFS in the last day, but I wonder if it has swung too far, with the 00z Euro and Ukie runs looking more suppressed. 12z runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 LOL..it was the EPS Control..sorry weenie time-out for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 LOL..it was the EPS Control..sorry the gfs has been hinting for a while. Eps is holding the trough back in Texas. Some of the individuals show the potential though. I think given the look in Canada eventually we get something to come across under the ridge but it may be too late and it would have to bomb to have any shot. It will be cut off from any cold initially. March 58 worked out that way but that was such a fluke 1/100 year type storm and it wasn't even that good in the cities or southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 weenie time-out for you perhaps the Hecs it has is the reason why 850 temps are colder than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 the gfs has been hinting for a while. Eps is holding the trough back in Texas. Some of the individuals show the potential though. I think given the look in Canada eventually we get something to come across under the ridge but it may be too late and it would have to bomb to have any shot. It will be cut off from any cold initially. March 58 worked out that way but that was such a fluke 1/100 year type storm and it wasn't even that good in the cities or southeast. ive seen about several 1/100 year events since 1993 so i dont rule anything out anymore. especially now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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