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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

i have seen enough winters in this region (37) to appreciate above normal winters no matter how they come. This was a good winter. we have plenty of stinkers, just not recently. I tend to believe the increase in high precipitation events due to global warming could continue to give us large (mecs and hecs) winter storms with more frequency. We will see what happens i guess but there is definitely more qpf to be had when it gets cold these days.

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I've pondered that trend too and wondered what might happen when we finally do get a really good nao year. 2010 was an example of what's possible of course. This year we only had any nao help for 2 weeks and pulled off a top 5 generational type storm. 2010 certainly blew the top off what I thought was our upper limit for snowfall and perhaps that wasn't a total fluke. If we can get another year with both a strong stj and nao blocking maybe that's the new normal for such an occupance. That said getting that combo is still probably a 1 in 10 year type thing but perhaps we only have to wait a decade not a century to get another year like that. I have no data to back this up just some musings that's all.
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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

?

 

A three stations are below normal for Feb snowfall. This month wasn't great by any stretch for many. 

 

The two things I thought were locks, an active STJ nearby and strong February ended up being wrong. The STJ was meager most of the time and Feb was...yeah. 

 

Humbling field. 

I was completely wrong about feb. shocking.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Fumny thing about this winter though, is it was fact a dog overall. With one seriously major exception in January when we lucked out at the right time with the only legitimate HECS of the year (so far at least). December was record heat from door to door. January had decent cold but beyond the blizzard there was nothing really in terms of events. February was meh, one solid cold period and a decent but minor snow/ice event but a few missed chances and will end up as a bit warmer than normal I believe. Early March? Not sure yet but think we may end up just missing on anything again. That all said, ironically I cannot really say the winter sucked, simply because of the incredible week we had in January. But pretty much everywhere else in the east had it bad which should really indicate how lucky we were. I guess if anything this winter proved that in this area it really can be one event that "makes" the winter, at least in terms of snow.

I think people don't realize how much luck plays in snowfall over the short term year to year. Over long periods like decades and centuries it evens out and we get what we should but year to year luck has more to do with it then many like to admit. There are patterns that stack the deck for sure but you still need some luck. There are a few years that are so good and so bad pattern wise that they are almost a lock to be good or bad but even those years can range from mediocre to awful depending on luck. 2000 was an example. We only had a 2 week window that was at all conducive for snow but 3 storms hit so it was a pretty good year. That year could have easily gone the way of 2002. That year had the same window late December and early Jan but one storm was suppressed, the next cut inside just a bit and crushed wv into central pa and the 3rd sheared apart and was just light snow. So that year is remembered as awful. Get two of those 3 threats to hit and it wasn't so bad. Same with some good years. 1987 we remember fondly but it was just 3 storms. this year could have gone either way. That one storm doesn't hit because of bad luck or a kicker at the wrong time and it's a bottom 5 winter. On the other hand there were 3-4 other decent threats that didn't work out and with more luck maybe 2 hit and this becomes an all time top 10 year. I really believe chaos has more to do with most years snowfall totals then we admit.
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gymengineer

gymengineer

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Posted

I think people don't realize how much luck plays in snowfall over the short term year to year. Over long periods like decades and centuries it evens out and we get what we should but year to year luck has more to do with it then many like to admit. There are patterns that stack the deck for sure but you still need some luck. There are a few years that are so good and so bad pattern wise that they are almost a lock to be good or bad but even those years can range from mediocre to awful depending on luck. 2000 was an example. We only had a 2 week window that was at all conducive for snow but 3 storms hit so it was a pretty good year. That year could have easily gone the way of 2002. That year had the same window late December and early Jan but one storm was suppressed, the next cut inside just a bit and crushed wv into central pa and the 3rd sheared apart and was just light snow. So that year is remembered as awful. Get two of those 3 threats to hit and it wasn't so bad. Same with some good years. 1987 we remember fondly but it was just 3 storms. this year could have gone either way. That one storm doesn't hit because of bad luck or a kicker at the wrong time and it's a bottom 5 winter. On the other hand there were 3-4 other decent threats that didn't work out and with more luck maybe 2 hit and this becomes an all time top 10 year. I really believe chaos has more to do with most years snowfall totals then we admit.

This is definitely true for like 95% of the events and patterns in this subforum. But there's something about the top-tier events in both DC and Baltimore that they tended to happen in winters with other hits. 3/42 is the only exception so far (but that inverted trough event was the most random/unexpected top 10 event for Baltimore). 

 

Maybe we are in a different climate regime where we can just whip off a 20"+ event surrounded by a complete crap winter repeatedly, but for whatever reason, our top events have occurred in winters that had other decent events. I guess I'm saying that 'luck' hasn't really cut it so far to just go ahead and produce a 20-incher. They've come in seasons with multiple coastal lows (so not like this past PD storm or the 2/21 event last season) that have occurred in repeating periods of favorable patterns across the winter.

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted

Not sure I believe crap winters are on the horizon. A rocking Feb was predicted many months ago as almost a lock...somehow the key was found and the lock was unlocked. we'be had snow in bad patterns and been shafted in good patterns. Who knows

 

Yeah, I'm not so sure about that either.... I remember people being convinced that we'd be paying for 09-10 for the rest of the decade, but all we had was a nasty 2-3 years then a very good run. We'll probably have some meh years in the near future, but I'm not so sure how awful they will be, or even if they will outweigh the past 3 years we've enjoyed. I don't think weather really works that way.

 

Like psuhoffman said, it's chaos and luck.

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

Gfs has been disappointing lately. I have no confidence with the op. Went from no storm anywhere (which I doubted) back to a southern storm and snow here with the northern stream interaction.

 

The verfication scores for the GFS haven't been great recently.  It's one of the reasons I've started paying more attention to the para GFS, which has been doing better.  But the GFS was still a pretty important piece to this puzzle.  It showed the risk of suppression when the other models had a more northern solution.

 

The 00z GFS made a big step towards the 12z Euro, but the 12z Euro had been a move towards the GFS.  I'm hoping the Ukie follows the GFS tonight.  I suspect the spread in the models will narrow considerably over the next couple of cycles.

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
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Range for this event is 0-4". GFS/CMC and what looks to be the NAM all point to 1-3", maybe 4" at best well west of 95. Pattern just doesn't support amplification until it's offshore. CMC is close but it might be generous in this pattern. I don't see this becoming anything more than a low end advisory.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Range for this event is 0-4". GFS/CMC and what looks to be the NAM all point to 1-3", maybe 4" at best well west of 95. Pattern just doesn't support amplification until it's offshore. CMC is close but it might be generous in this pattern. I don't see this becoming anything more than a low end advisory.

Yeah I would pretty much agree with your assessment. The pattern does not really support the idea of a big storm close to the coast.

 

Speaking of advisory level snow, 6z GFS is looking a bit more enthusiastic for a 2-4" event.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

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After looking over the 00Z ensembles and considering previous runs have to agree with ers-wxman1. This is probably a 1-3 inch event at best for the majority of the region. Depending how and where the low intensifies I can see extreme southern or eastern regions faring a little better IF the temps cooperate. Both the EPS and the CMC ensembles pretty much folded to the GFS idea of the trough being farther east and short of seeing the models shift  that back to the west 100-200 miles I don't think there is enough room to give the low to do its thing for our region. 

 

I wouldn't totally ignore the short wave that follows this event though. The models all but lost the look I liked a couple of days ago for this but I can still see the possibilities and the models still hint at it.. If the models start showing that short wave digging deeper and giving more separation between it and the current event we are following I would not be surprised if they start spitting out Miller B solutions. Of course we know how Miller B's work in our region and I'll leave it at that.

 

After that second possibility I still think we are all but done for winter barring a fluke event. Cold gets locked to the north and by the time the pattern reshuffles think climo will have its say.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Looking over the 06z GEFS it has shifted the trough slightly west. We are also seeing a shifting of the track north and west as well with a stronger signal for the low to be just off of OBX. Don't have the means for the snowfall but looking at the individual members would suggest that has increased from the 00Z with several that have nice events for the region.

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted

I just want this final one.  3 inches and I am fine with the end of winter.  I will rake the yard and buy mulch like a suburban warrior.  I did like that the surface on the 6z isn't torching and it comes over night.  The warm ground might be issue as always.  

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