CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Shame we don't have a 50/50. It would make this so much simpler. There is no HL blocking of significance. A 50-50 low works when there is a sustained block and a vortex gets "trapped" under it to the SE. A low hauling aSS through Labrador Sea region is pretty much useless. Talk about threading a needle lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Shame we don't have a 50/50. It would make this so much simpler. Thats one problem. The second problem is the ridge over California collapses, if it stayed intact for another 18hrs there'd be a very different result with this setup. Not likely to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12Z CMC ensemble is out and it is a cave to the GFS. Congrats Burmuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Thats one problem. The second problem is the ridge over California collapses, if it stayed intact for another 18hrs there'd be a very different result with this setup. Not likely to happen though. The ridge collapses? Look at h96 to h120 on the EPS. There is a ridge and it is plenty amplified. As far as the lack of a 50-50 low, that is not really a problem either. You would be more correct to say the lack of a block is a problem. This type of set up is more favorable for a progressive, faster moving system, yes. I am not expecting to see a bombing low slowly crawling up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Actually the EPS isn't quite as horrible as the mean track suggests. The clustering is on the north and west side of the mean low which would suggest that southern and eastern sections are still somewhat in play. where can i get the EPS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Way too many discussions of old maps and things that just are not important. Ridges over California is about 27th on the list of things we need to work right for Dc snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 where can i get the EPS?? You can get, what I believe is the mean track, on tropicaltidbits. Pretty crappy only having 24 hour increments but it is what it is. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yep. Getting a subscription has been worth the money. Not sure if it will be as worth it during the other three seasons. I will be canceling mine in another week probably. Too much other stuff going on during Spring and Summer to for me to justify keeping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Well the GFS sure as hell isnt catching on anytime soon it looks like...Really think the EURO might be off on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It might give us some light northern stream love on this 18z run though but certainly no well defined system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Pixie flurries late afternoon/evening Fri....thatll work well on March 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It might give us some light northern stream love on this 18z run though but certainly no well defined system It's moving back towards a storm idea down south. Gfs has been very inconsistent for a while now. Not just this storm. It won an award for the blizzard and then decided to get drunk and party afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's moving back towards a storm idea down south. Gfs has been very inconsistent for a while now. Not just this storm. It won an award for the blizzard and then decided to get drunk and party afterwards. Doc Brown was sure wrong about the weather service forecast in Back to the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I will be canceling mine in another week probably. Too much other stuff going on during Spring and Summer to for me to justify keeping it. I kept wxbell for the spring/summer first year I subscribed but I really didn't get my money's worth. Long range is pretty boring during that stretch. Severe isn't a long range sport and i suck at it anyways. Tropical is well covered on the board too. Tidbits is good enough for ens stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I kept wxbell for the spring/summer first year I subscribed but I really didn't get my money's worth. Long range is pretty boring during that stretch. Severe isn't a long range sport and i suck at it anyways. Tropical is well covered on the board too. Tidbits is good enough for ens stuff. I really only have it for a better view on the Euro...and the snow maps are tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I kept wxbell for the spring/summer first year I subscribed but I really didn't get my money's worth. Long range is pretty boring during that stretch. Severe isn't a long range sport and i suck at it anyways. Tropical is well covered on the board too. Tidbits is good enough for ens stuff. Yeah between TT and TwisterData I am good for the Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Have had Wxbell for two winters now. Initially it was hard to find things because the layout is crappy. But once you get used to that then you are good to go with some nice product. Have noticed for the last month or so though, that sometimes current runs aren't being loaded in a timely manner, hell slow as hell actually. It's caught me a couple of times already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Models do not predict weather they show possibilities and various scenarios. So many of the depressive carte blanche statements are factually incorrect -the model is not predicting pixy dust it is just showing one of many situations that could happen In time they will abandon the microscopic numeric method as the atmosphere is more than numbers. It may be useful status quo to the entrenched system in place to portray the atmosphere as being able to be numerically governed but the atmosphere is more than that. Ever see a tropical system avoid land falling in Jamaica and skirting the coast instead to stay over water and stay alive. Yes, stay alive as in animate qualities With all the visual data, water vapor, radar, satellite and all the incredible computers someone is able to download a myriad of occurrent precedents. Add to that the state of enso and some other dominant indexes and you would have an analog type product that would be far more specific, less fluctuation of 300 miles every 6 hours, course steady and ultimately more useful and accurate It's going to take time to root out those that benefit from the current set up but ultimately the desire for something better will kick in and a system of greater merit will win out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I use wxbell during the winter... just TT and Pivotal Weather for other seasons. This threat looks like it's on life support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Self-aware and self-preserving weather systems. Now, that's a new concept in meteorology. That would explain how weather systems are consistently able to avoid this area though..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 LWX discussion from today leaves the door cracked open for late week. Being held open by an egg at this point but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Give me e15 and I would be ready to call it quits for the winter. give me e15, 3.5" qpf as heavy wet snow (my favorite) and I would be happy for 5 years. I wouldn't complain once during the coming run of crap winters we will have soon to pay the piper for the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Not sure I believe crap winters are on the horizon. A rocking Feb was predicted many months ago as almost a lock...somehow the key was found and the lock was unlocked. we'be had snow in bad patterns and been shafted in good patterns. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Not sure I believe crap winters are on the horizon. A rocking Feb was predicted many months ago as almost a lock...somehow the key was found and the lock was unlocked. we'be had snow in bad patterns and been shafted in good patterns. Who knowsNot by everyone wrt February. Every nino has it's own personality. As for next winter, enso will have a lot to say, but who knows what may overcome enso and the other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Not sure I believe crap winters are on the horizon. A rocking Feb was predicted many months ago as almost a lock...somehow the key was found and the lock was unlocked. we'be had snow in bad patterns and been shafted in good patterns. Who knows my statement was just playing on the odds. We will eventually go through a 3 year dry spell and it will get ugly when that happens but it's normal. That's our climo. For next year the enso will play a huge part. Root for neutral. Neutral after a strong Nino can be good. Nina after strong Nino is usually a dumpster fire. Ninas is general have been pretty awful in the most recent cycle we have been in so when we do get out next run of colder enso I expect some sad times for snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Unless we're on the verge of rewriting climo, we're getting some crap snow total winters. Maybe not next year but they are coming. SE ridge or AK vortex or whatever. Dead dogs are always on the horizon. Next year has some potential with enso neutral or weak Nina. This nino is going to have a hangover effect for sure. Would be nice to have a legit nao happen again. What a terrible cycle we seem to be in there. But not unprecedented by any stretch. The 90's were far worse. Mitch, we should start the 16-17 thread on March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 my statement was just playing on the odds. We will eventually go through a 3 year dry spell and it will get ugly when that happens but it's normal. That's our climo. For next year the enso will play a huge part. Root for neutral. Neutral after a strong Nino can be good. Nina after strong Nino is usually a dumpster fire. Ninas is general have been pretty awful in the most recent cycle we have been in so when we do get out next run of colder enso I expect some sad times for snow lovers. Unless we're on the verge of rewriting climo, we're getting some crap snow total winters. Maybe not next year but they are coming. SE ridge or AK vortex or whatever. Dead dogs are always on the horizon. Next year has some potential with enso neutral or weak Nina. This nino is going to have a hangover effect for sure. Would be nice to have a legit nao happen again. What a terrible cycle we seem to be in there. But not unprecedented by any stretch. The 90's were far worse. Mitch, we should start the 16-17 thread on March 1st. Fumny thing about this winter though, is it was fact a dog overall. With one seriously major exception in January when we lucked out at the right time with the only legitimate HECS of the year (so far at least). December was record heat from door to door. January had decent cold but beyond the blizzard there was nothing really in terms of events. February was meh, one solid cold period and a decent but minor snow/ice event but a few missed chances and will end up as a bit warmer than normal I believe. Early March? Not sure yet but think we may end up just missing on anything again. That all said, ironically I cannot really say the winter sucked, simply because of the incredible week we had in January. But pretty much everywhere else in the east had it bad which should really indicate how lucky we were. I guess if anything this winter proved that in this area it really can be one event that "makes" the winter, at least in terms of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 Unless we're on the verge of rewriting climo, we're getting some crap snow total winters. Maybe not next year but they are coming. SE ridge or AK vortex or whatever. Dead dogs are always on the horizon. Next year has some potential with enso neutral or weak Nina. This nino is going to have a hangover effect for sure. Would be nice to have a legit nao happen again. What a terrible cycle we seem to be in there. But not unprecedented by any stretch. The 90's were far worse. Mitch, we should start the 16-17 thread on March 1st. Hey Bob why not go even further into the future When the low point of the solar cycle comes around near the end of the current decade coinciding with the trend back to El Nino after several winters of Nina and neutral - maybe a big time negative AO and negative NAO tandem as well, expecting a deep winter to rival many of the most severe winters on the East Coast in recent memory. Note and disclaimer - exaggerations implied , but there is some science to it as far as blocking, solar connections with increased blocking and trends with enso. Not sure the state of the QBO at that time , but more excited about the solar connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 i have seen enough winters in this region (37) to appreciate above normal winters no matter how they come. This was a good winter. we have plenty of stinkers, just not recently. I tend to believe the increase in high precipitation events due to global warming could continue to give us large (mecs and hecs) winter storms with more frequency. We will see what happens i guess but there is definitely more qpf to be had when it gets cold these days. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 29, 2016 Share Posted February 29, 2016 my statement was just playing on the odds. We will eventually go through a 3 year dry spell and it will get ugly when that happens but it's normal. That's our climo. For next year the enso will play a huge part. Root for neutral. Neutral after a strong Nino can be good. Nina after strong Nino is usually a dumpster fire. Ninas is general have been pretty awful in the most recent cycle we have been in so when we do get out next run of colder enso I expect some sad times for snow lovers. There has never been a Nino after a very strong nino year. So it would be a first. http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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