stormtracker Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 fixed Better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ukie looks goofy it squashed the storm then is ready to bomb something a day later from the next vort but it looks like it may try to cut. It's definitely a new option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 At 105 euro is kinda half way between the ggem and the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ehh 108 it's digging way too far south. It's not as bad as the gfs but I don't think it's really going to get close to anything good up here from where it is now. I don't think this is the kind of setup where it can come all the way up if it's starting in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 At 105 euro is kinda half way between the ggem and the gfs. Ehh 108 it's digging way too far south. It's not as bad as the gfs but I don't think it's really going to get close to anything good up here from where it is now. I don't think this is the kind of setup where it can come all the way up if it's starting in the gulf. Let the run play out. Not bad right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Let the run play out. USA_PRMSL_msl_120.gif Not bad right? you can tell by 108 it's not good for us. Big hit for eastern nc if it's cold enough at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Let the run play out. USA_PRMSL_msl_120.gif Not bad right? Its not really a climb the coast type of system..we need the vort/energy further north earlier in the run..you can tell at 96 its squashed a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ehh 108 it's digging way too far south. It's not as bad as the gfs but I don't think it's really going to get close to anything good up here from where it is now. I don't think this is the kind of setup where it can come all the way up if it's starting in the gulf. It's a step tpwards the GFS though the latter may very well be too suppressed. Not very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Its not really a climb the coast type of system..we need the vort/energy further north earlier in the run..you can tell at 96 its squashed a bit. Yep. At least it's easy to know what to root for at this point. I'm sure there will be a cluster in the euro ens that keep hope alive. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yep. At least it's easy to know what to root for at this point. I'm sure there will be a cluster in the euro ens that keep hope alive. Lol Im out on this one...I have a 9am flight to Nashville on Friday morning...I dont need a last hurrah March snow to ruin my quest in finding the next Carrie Underwood lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Im out on this one...I have a 9am flight to Nashville on Friday morning...I dont need a last hurrah March snow to ruin my quest in finding the next Carrie Underwood lol. I'm mad at last week's rain storm. All the lakes are muddy. Crappy trout fishing conditions but I'm not mad at the 60 degree sun on my face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That was a swing and a miss. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The only good storm that happened in a pattern this progressive was the PDI and this setup really isn't that similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The 12z.runs continue to suck. It's like 00z and 12z euro are just different models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Don't like the trends today, but not overly surprised the Euro backed off from its solution from last night. Oh well. I think in the end the GFS is way too suppressed most likely, but it's not looking like all that much of an event anymore at this point. Of course, I hope I can take that back tomorrow and things suddenly look good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Friday will be very close to being very good. Analogs show low moving thru central to northern Georgia and off Carolinas with abundant cold air to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Para euro had 2 shots at snow of 2" each, more or less. One was the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 So the EURO caved to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yep. At least it's easy to know what to root for at this point. I'm sure there will be a cluster in the euro ens that keep hope alive. Lol A few nice hits in the mix, better than I expected. Still not a strong signal. At this point I would say keep your expectations low...like car topper category lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS is coming farther south. Takes the low off the coast of South Carolina and swings it wide right. Just looked at the CMC ensembles as well and realized what I thought was a good 00Z run was actually an older run. The 00z had actually degraded. Looking like this one is slipping away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 A few nice hits in the mix, better than I expected. Still not a strong signal. At this point I would say keep your expectations low...like car topper category lol. Yea, of course the eps is a nice improvement from 0z. Some cold bombs in there. I'm not writing anything off until it's clear. Not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Actually the EPS isn't quite as horrible as the mean track suggests. The clustering is on the north and west side of the mean low which would suggest that southern and eastern sections are still somewhat in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yea, of course the eps is a nice improvement from 0z. Some cold bombs in there. I'm not writing anything off until it's clear. Not there yet. Same. I have a gut feeling there is going to be a decent event in our area, or very close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Yea, of course the eps is a nice improvement from 0z. Some cold bombs in there. I'm not writing anything off until it's clear. Not there yet. Give me e15 and I would be ready to call it quits for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Give me e15 and I would be ready to call it quits for the winter. 3 and 4 in a pinch among others. Even the light to moderate events are nice. Main low is too far south but it looks like some northern stream energy gets us anyway. Quite a few nice mature lows with a solid ccb even with the whiffs. If anything, the 12z ens run is pretty encouraging. I think the gfs "no storm" solution is wrong. I'm not saying I feel confident in our area getting something. Just confident that a decent storm will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 3 and 4 in a pinch among others. Even the light to moderate events are nice. Main low is too far south but it looks like some northern stream energy gets us anyway. Quite a few nice mature lows with a solid ccb even with the whiffs. If anything, the 12z ens run is pretty encouraging. I think the gfs "no storm" solution is wrong. I'm not saying I feel confident in our area getting something. Just confident that a decent storm will develop. Yeah, I was a little hasty on thinking it was a horrible run by just looking at the mean track. Looking at the individual members and how many are bombing would argue running up the coast somewhat is a very possible option. Think this option has a lot more upside then what we were previously looking at. Guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I was looking to see if there was a strong signal for a southern hit on the eps mean. Instead, the strongest signal is a hit across our area in light of that 2" stripe of snow over us on day 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The 12z EPS is more supportive of this mornings 0z op run. Some really nice hits among the members, and more lighter events scattered in there as well. As Bob said, looks like we get some NS love even if the main low is too far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Shame we don't have a 50/50. It would make this so much simpler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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