Bob Chill Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't like seeing the euro ens moving the wrong way. Op looked great of course but it really doesn't have much support anymore across the board. We're still a couple days away from having a clear picture though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The GFS is likely driving the Arctic air too far south and west, so instead of a clipper riding along the edge of the boundary(further north) like the Euro, its keying on the southern energy and has the low tracking along the Gulf coast (thinks the Arctic boundary will be much further south) and it shunts it eastward, way too far south, and no chance for any phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It will be interesting and shocking if the EURO caves. Long live the KING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 the gfs is really squashing it. The difference between the gfs/uk and the ggem/ec is the gfs is hanging the stj energy back a bit and the northern stream vort gets out ahead and that out of sync interaction totally squashed it. The stj misses it's boat so to speak then is just left behind. The ec phases the two. i have no idea which is right. I don't mind one model that way. Or for the consensus to be a miss to our south. But id rather the miss be where southern va gets it not the thing is squashed to nothing. Yes there has been a north trend all year but let's be realistic that north trend was moderate not extreme. We don't want to be needing a 250 mile trend or worse needing the storm to be 10 mb stronger in the short term. A 75 mile move or 5 mb change is more realistic. So as today's runs come out I won't be upset with a miss but I want to see a decent system at least within reasonable distance. A big hit to Richmond as a consensus of the runs would be ideal for our area right now. If all of today's runs start to show a totally squashed system like the gfs then we are in trouble. Agree with the overall idea here. It's a case of whether the southern stream disturbance can at least begin to phase with the northern stream enough so that we can get something up this way. Obviously, the GFS is crushes it way to the south while the Euro is the near opposite extreme of giving us a pretty major event. I don't like seeing the GFS trend toward what it has to that extent; I mean, it's not even close to anything for here. As you say, a "north trend" won't help us with a GFS-like solution. I've been somewhat interested in this event the past couple of days since there have been some indications it could work out. But not yet overly excited about it either, unless some consensus for a good event can start showing up regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The euro was great but other then the op euro the 0z was a pretty bad cycle of guidance. I don't really buy the gfs idea of totally squashing this although the uk going that way was bothersome. However the eps shows a lot of good tracks that don't produce because the system is just weak and disorganized. .3 qpf over 12 hours isn't going to cut it in March. We are still at a range that it's ok to need some adjustment in the consensus but we're getting close to where I want to see a move towards a more amplified system in the next few runs. Usually a gfs ec compromise 60/40 ec weighted is the way to go here. That's not good for us in this situation so hope to see the gfs start to come around soon. I'm still think we see a big stj system bowl across under us mid March but it may be too late to get frozen.The euro has not done well this year at this range when it's been on its own. With the Ukie in the gfs camp and the Euro's ensembles sucking I'd say odds are high euro caves to the non-event shown on the Ukie, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't like seeing the euro ens moving the wrong way. Op looked great of course but it really doesn't have much support anymore across the board. We're still a couple days away from having a clear picture though. I've only been able to see the Euro ensemble mean on TT. What do the individual members look like, overall? Is there any support for what the ops is showing, or only a couple of rogue members doing that now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I've only been able to see the Euro ensemble mean on TT. What do the individual members look like, overall? Is there any support for what the ops is showing, or only a couple of rogue members doing that now?Almost no support at all from the ensemble. The snow mean is below 1" for most of the DC region. It has a couple members with amped solutions to our south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It will be interesting and shocking if the EURO caves. Long live the KING!I wouldn't be shocked, it has almost no support besides from maybe GGEM. The ensembles don't agree with it either. It could pull a Hurricane Joaquin like coup again where every model was going against it. But we will see. UKIE went away from Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Does anyone have the para Euro?Weatherbell says they didn't receive and para euro data all day yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't like seeing the euro ens moving the wrong way. Op looked great of course but it really doesn't have much support anymore across the board. We're still a couple days away from having a clear picture though. amazingly the eps tracks are great but manage to be unimpressive on snowfall. That could be a red flag. Some of the members I expected to be huge hits by just looking at slp were awful. Best example is e4. Bombs a low from 1000mb over central nc to 987 just east of ocean city and does nothing for us. Manages to not develop any Ccb qpf west of the low until after past us. If a low bombing from 1000 to 987 mb in 6 hours tracks just southeast of us and we can't snow then you kinda just have to throw your hands up and say oh well. There are several others similar where the slp says nice then you look at the snow and it's just not there. The good news could be that if I had to pick I'd rather need an adjustment in qpf then track at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't like seeing the euro ens moving the wrong way. Op looked great of course but it really doesn't have much support anymore across the board. We're still a couple days away from having a clear picture though. True a valid concern indeed, but as for the Ukie I read in the NY forum from Snowgoose that the Ukie tends to be amped on systems that run inland and flatter on systems that run up or off the coast. As for the GFS and suppression, and hanging energy back, that is intriguing because typically that is what the Euro tends to do. What does the Euro see that other models don't , even its own ens suite. As for the euro ens moving away and lower in snowfall, well that may hopefully yield to a conclusion this afternoon. The non-science expectation based simply on the ways things have gone this winter is a whiff and a non-event. On the other hand its not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Otherwise 6z GFS is a torch fest, 3 Days in a Row LR Mid 60s to Lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It will be interesting and shocking if the EURO caves. Long live the KING! The 12z Euro has not been showing what the 0z has for days now. Not sure what caving would look like in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Otherwise 6z GFS is a torch fest, 3 Days in a Row LR Mid 60s to Lower 70s. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Otherwise 6z GFS is a torch fest, 3 Days in a Row LR Mid 60s to Lower 70s. oh the warm is coming. The true cold will be cut off and with the raging Nino a west to east flow will be torching. But at the same time there is a signal of a string stj undercutting the ridge. The higher heights are centered north enough that I think there is a signal for a storm to cut under around March 13-17. It's probably going to be rain. It won't have any cold to work with ahead of it. But if we get lucky and it bombs under us it could create enough cold to do something. It's a long shot. But March 58 that storm had a ton of rain before any snow. Even out here the 30" was on 5" qpf. And yes I know how lucky we would have to get for anything close to that to work out but that's out only hope in the pattern coming and I think a big wet cool stj system is inevitable mid month so might as well root to get lucky since it will be miserable anyways. Day 15 of the 6z gefs actually shows what I'm thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 oh the warm is coming. The true cold will be cut off and with the raging Nino a west to east flow will be torching. But at the same time there is a signal of a string stj undercutting the ridge. The higher heights are centered north enough that I think there is a signal for a storm to cut under around March 13-17. It's probably going to be rain. It won't have any cold to work with ahead of it. But if we get lucky and it bombs under us it could create enough cold to do something. It's a long shot. But March 58 that storm had a ton of rain before any snow. Even out here the 30" was on 5" qpf. And yes I know how lucky we would have to get for anything close to that to work out but that's out only hope in the pattern coming and I think a big wet cool stj system is inevitable mid month so might as well root to get lucky since it will be miserable anyways. Day 15 of the 6z gefs actually shows what I'm thinking. image.png Yup. I mentioned this as well yesterday...that the pattern looked more "favorable" mid month after the warm up on the ensembles, but likely no way to get any cold down here, so short of a bombing low with an ideal track, probably it would be rainy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 12z gfs 1012 low south of bermuda - plenty of cold air though - heh Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Gfs caved on the two wave idea on the day 3-4 storm but still crushes our threat to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't need a hit but I'd like to see the other guidance at least have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ggem out to 96 already completely different from gfs at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ggem doesn't end well but for the opposite reason. It has a euro type evolution but brings the wave across a bit too north for us. It's not bad but too warm at the surface. The differences show up early with the gfs. Gfs really crushes everything south right from the start in the plains. So we should know soon because they diverge at about 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ggem doesn't end well but for the opposite reason. It has a euro type evolution but brings the wave across a bit too north for us. It's not bad but too warm at the surface. The differences show up early with the gfs. Gfs really crushes everything south right from the start in the plains. So we should know soon because they diverge at about 72 hours.Considering the gem, forget the accuracy, at least it's not a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Considering the gem, forget the accuracy, at least it's not a whiff. I consider this run a win. I don't trust the ggem to get any details or exact track right at this range but at least it sides with the euro on the idea of a wave along the boundary and popping a low along the coast east of us. If the gfs general idea is right there is no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I consider this run a win. I don't trust the ggem to get any details or exact track right at this range but at least it sides with the euro on the idea of a wave along the boundary and popping a low along the coast east of us. If the gfs general idea is right there is no shot.Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There is almost no chance the 12z Euro will repeat the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Ukie looks goofy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There is almost no chance the 12z Euro will repeat the 0zMaybe better? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Boston weenies popping champagne right about now. Sigh Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Boston weenies popping champagne right about now. Sigh Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk With the gem? Rotsa ruck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 There is almost no chance the 12z Euro will repeat the 0z fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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