Jebman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 This snowstorm is different. It will clobber the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Weatherbell is being screwy again so I can't see it but it sounds like the 00Z Euro is the new Happy Hour run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looking for totals on this run.Basing it on Euorwx.com Nice stripe of 6 to 12 from northeastern Virginia northeast to Delaware and into Southern New Jersey. Very good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I was asleep. I woke up and figured I'd take a peek at the euro, and now I can't fall back damit!Did you mean leak?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Looking for totals on this run.Basing it on Euorwx.com Nice stripe of 6 to 12 from northeastern Virginia northeast to Delaware and into Southern New Jersey. Very good run. You don't have the track by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Did you mean leak?. That sounds like me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 That sounds like me. I don't know how you get up at 3 a.m. every day. I would kill myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Wxbell snow maps show 14" at DCA, 12" IAD, 12" BWI, 8" at OKV and Frederick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 I don't know how you get up at 3 a.m. every day. I would kill myself. After doing it so long I am used to it. Complete opposite of when I was younger and would be going to bed at 3am after hitting the clubs. Funny what getting older does to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 CMC ensembles have a good look @500's and would take it any day irregardless of what the surface reflection may have. Has the trough neutral on the Mississippi and has good ridging to the west. GEFS on the other hand continues to set up the trough to far east and the broad ridging in the west is just shunting this all OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 After doing it so long I am used to it. Complete opposite of when I was younger and would be going to bed at 3am after hitting the clubs. Funny what getting older does to you.If you can do it more power to you. Plus I know no matter how early i get up i can read your ensemble recap . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 EPS mean looks decent on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The EPS would look very good if it weren't for the fact the trough is going neutral a little farther east then I would like to see. Hopefully just noise and not a trend. Mean track has shifted a little south and then east of the region in response to the troughs change. Snowfall mean has decreased quite a bit from the 12Z run and looking at the qpf maps the central MD region is fairly dry while the eastern shore still picks up good rates suggesting we are now on the outer fringes of the system. Edit: Not sure I would be concerned about the mean snowfall at this time. With the 00Z runs coming in dryer for some reason and with the Euro's habit of underplaying the precip field in the mid range I think these argue that we would see a better result then we now see. The track is decent and as long as the low doesn't lolly gag on intensifying we should be fine with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The EPS would look very good if it weren't for the fact the trough is going neutral a little farther east then I would like to see. Hopefully just noise and not a trend. Mean track has shifted a little south and then east of the region in response to the troughs change. Snowfall mean has decreased quite a bit from the 12Z run and looking at the qpf maps the central MD region is fairly dry while the eastern shore still picks up good rates suggesting we are now on the outer fringes of the system. Glancing at the individual members, seems they range from an all out miss, to a hit but too warm(or weak so rain), to some nice snow hits for the ones that have a good track and stronger low. Not great consensus and not a very strong signal for a snowstorm for our area at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 After looking over the ensembles am still fairly optimistic. Glancing at the individual members, seems they range from an all out miss, to a hit but too warm(or weak so rain), to some nice snow hits for the ones that have a good track and stronger low. Not great consensus and not a very strong signal for a snowstorm for our area at this point. Doesn't surprise me. This setup isn't as cut and dry as I would like to see. Just subtle changes on some of the key features can really change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 After looking over the ensembles am still fairly optimistic. Doesn't surprise me. This setup isn't as cut and dry as I would like to see. Just subtle changes on some of the key features can really change things. Its rarely cut and dry when it comes to snow in these parts Always issues to be resolved. The models and run to run variability with each cycle are indicative of struggling with resolving spacing between this storm and the previous one-so how much this one can develop and how soon, how much confluence will there be and where, and just how cold it actually gets(which would largely depend on track and strength of the low). So if you look at the 3 op runs at 0z- GFS, EURO, CMC, it runs the gamut from completely crushed, to major snowstorm, to warmish and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Its rarely cut and dry when i comes to snow in these parts Always issues to be resolved. The models and run to run variability with each cycle are indicative of struggling with resolving spacing between this storm and the previous one-so how much this one can develop and how soon, how much confluence will there be and where, and just how cold it actually gets(which would largely depend on track and strength of the low). So if you look at the 3 op runs at 0z- GFS, EURO, CMC, it runs the gamut from completely crushed, to major snowstorm, to warmish and rainy. Know I have been harping on this, and will apologize for bringing it up again, but I really think the key will be the trough axis and where it goes neutral. All three models have been fairly consistent for the last few runs and are very similar @ 500's with the exception that the GEFS has been taking the trough neutral 100-200 miles (if that far) further east on the runs. That's why I found it a little troubling to see the Euro move slightly to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Its rarely cut and dry when it comes to snow in these parts That is what makes tracking so enjoyable for me. I am sure tracking gets pretty boring up in New England where about the only issue you have is how much snow you are going to get. Of course. I think I could handle that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Interesting snippet from the Mount Holly morning AFD- THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY GIVENSHORTWAVE ENERGY IS STILL OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. IN VERY GENERALTERMS, THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT, I.E., EASTCOAST CYCLOGENSIS, GIVEN AMPLIFICATION OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE, ANDA CLOSED LOW OVER LABRADOR. SO THE SETUP IS THERE, BUT IT/S STILLTOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIALLYIMPACTFUL SYSTEM. WHILE WE FEEL THE GFS/UKMET ARE TOO SUPPRESSED DUETO EMPHASIS ON SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY, AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION MOREPLAUSIBLE, IT/S STILL TOO EARLY TO HANG OUR HAT ON ANY SOLUTION.THERE IS A LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING, AND THIS IS EVIDENT INTHE LABRADOR LOW QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT,INDICATIVE OF A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT PHASINGOF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL TAKE PLACE TOO LATE, I.E.,JUST OFFSHORE, WHICH DOES NOT FAVOR A PROLONGED EAST COAST STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 06Z gfs is ugly. Did notice that the 00z para GFS is much different then the original. Through goes neutral around the Mississippi and we then see a low form farther north around southern Ohio that then rides just underneath our region. Quick glance but it shows roughly a half inch for the region and temps may be marginal for our southern region. Not much change with the GEFS. Still looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Sprawling Arctic High anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The euro was great but other then the op euro the 0z was a pretty bad cycle of guidance. I don't really buy the gfs idea of totally squashing this although the uk going that way was bothersome. However the eps shows a lot of good tracks that don't produce because the system is just weak and disorganized. .3 qpf over 12 hours isn't going to cut it in March. We are still at a range that it's ok to need some adjustment in the consensus but we're getting close to where I want to see a move towards a more amplified system in the next few runs. Usually a gfs ec compromise 60/40 ec weighted is the way to go here. That's not good for us in this situation so hope to see the gfs start to come around soon. I'm still think we see a big stj system bowl across under us mid March but it may be too late to get frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 The euro was great but other then the op euro the 0z was a pretty bad cycle of guidance. I don't really buy the gfs idea of totally squashing this although the uk going that way was bothersome. However the eps shows a lot of good tracks that don't produce because the system is just weak and disorganized. .3 qpf over 12 hours isn't going to cut it in March. We are still at a range that it's ok to need some adjustment in the consensus but we're getting close to where I want to see a move towards a more amplified system in the next few runs. Usually a gfs ec compromise 60/40 ec weighted is the way to go here. That's not good for us in this situation so hope to see the gfs start to come around soon. I'm still think we see a big stj system bowl across under us mid March but it may be too late to get frozen. To me it is tonight's runs that usually give hints to the trend. At least in the last few threats at 4 days we knew there were real problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Big differences between the 12z para GFS and the 12z regular GFS. Para GFS Regular GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 It's only about 500 miles off on the low placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Does anyone have the para Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Big differences between the 12z para GFS and the 12z regular GFS. Para GFS Regular GFS The 6z Para GFS is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 GFS does not make much sense, and I will be very surprised if it does not move more towards a Euro/CMC look with a clipper type surface low sliding just to our south in the next few cycles. It will catch on eventually. The biggest question is the exact track and strength of the low, because there will be some pretty cold air available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 the gfs is really squashing it. The difference between the gfs/uk and the ggem/ec is the gfs is hanging the stj energy back a bit and the northern stream vort gets out ahead and that out of sync interaction totally squashed it. The stj misses it's boat so to speak then is just left behind. The ec phases the two. i have no idea which is right. I don't mind one model that way. Or for the consensus to be a miss to our south. But id rather the miss be where southern va gets it not the thing is squashed to nothing. Yes there has been a north trend all year but let's be realistic that north trend was moderate not extreme. We don't want to be needing a 250 mile trend or worse needing the storm to be 10 mb stronger in the short term. A 75 mile move or 5 mb change is more realistic. So as today's runs come out I won't be upset with a miss but I want to see a decent system at least within reasonable distance. A big hit to Richmond as a consensus of the runs would be ideal for our area right now. If all of today's runs start to show a totally squashed system like the gfs then we are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 28, 2016 Share Posted February 28, 2016 Hmmm, 6 z Para GFS versus the Euro . I would think if today's 12z Euro run holds course the event becomes more likely. Hopefully, the higher scoring Euro is seeing things better than either GFS model at this range. The event is coming at an interesting time with the pulse down of the AO as well. As for the Euro, it has been relatively firm in its depictions, give or take some movement. The other option is a massive change in the Euro out to sea, and or much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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