EastCoast NPZ Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 How soon until we track something legitimately? Next week? This banter thread is no fun right now. ;-) December is only 9 months away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Euro looks pretty sweet at h5 hr 198. CMC and gfs teasing in the range too. Could have something real on the radar sooner than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 And Euro also with a sizable snow in the D9-10 now. 4-8" DC, Northern Virginia, Central and Northern MD, Southern and SE PA, Central New Jersey into NYC. South of Route 50 it's mixy. It's not a healthy looking system but it works out (verbatim). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 And Euro also with a sizable snow in the D9-10 now. 4-8" DC, Northern Virginia, Central and Northern MD, Southern and SE PA, Central New Jersey into NYC. South of Route 50 it's mixy. It's not a healthy looking system but it works out (verbatim). This is the one GFS has squashed...cold should be around town. Like these type set ups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 So polar vortex is not that prominent on EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 So polar vortex is not that prominent on EURO? Vortex rotates down but is back up in NE Canada before the storm arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Lol. I would certainly feel good about my chances of seeing a snowstorm in March in SC, based on the GFS op 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Guess I didn't miss anything on the models while I was away for the weekend, blowing money at Charles Town Casino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Eps mean is certainly unimpressed with the days 9-10 threat shown on the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Eps mean is certainly unimpressed with the days 9-10 threat shown on the operational. We gotta wait until the rain event moves out before having a better idea if there is real potential or not. Just hug the 12z para gfs. If that verifies then we can just call it a wrap and start talking about next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Para gfs nice run. 3 threats that deliver light snow and cold throughout. Lost the warmup and seems to be developing something as it ends day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 We gotta wait until the rain event moves out before having a better idea if there is real potential or not. Just hug the 12z para gfs. If that verifies then we can just call it a wrap and start talking about next year. it is odd that given all the blocking the eps still isn't showing much of anything. But they weren't that hot on snowzilla until it got within 8 days or so. A lot of the runs with the best blocking are dry. That might just be the models not seeing anything to key on from that far out so they let the blocking suppress everything. The members that don't have the blocking based on the pressures cut everything. The ops are starting to see things though so I'll run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 We gotta wait until the rain event moves out before having a better idea if there is real potential or not. Just hug the 12z para gfs. If that verifies then we can just call it a wrap and start talking about next year. Dammit, Bob, now you went and made me go look at it!! I think most of us would take that and run, though the threat around the 3rd-4th looks marginal to warm (is that the one we were all sort of keying on?). However, there's a light overrunning event right before that, and another solid event in the later periods. Nice highs around, and blocking, so probably useless to delve into any thermal field stuff. Heh...now that I look again, there's even a "fourth" potential that appears to be brewing right at 384 hours. Nice to see possibilities out there, maybe at least one of those will give this winter a good send-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Para gfs nice run. 3 threats that deliver light snow and cold throughout. Lost the warmup and seems to be developing something as it ends day 15. It's crazy, it looks a lot more like early February than early March. There was a time when I thought meaningful snow in the Mid Atlantic in March was a near impossibility, but the past few years... Not that it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 it is odd that given all the blocking the eps still isn't showing much of anything. But they weren't that hot on snowzilla until it got within 8 days or so. A lot of the runs with the best blocking are dry. That might just be the models not seeing anything to key on from that far out so they let the blocking suppress everything. The members that don't have the blocking based on the pressures cut everything. The ops are starting to see things though so I'll run with that. I'd think right now the important is that it's showing an overall blocking pattern (in the mean) for right now. As you indicate, probably several shortwaves in there that the ensembles won't/cannot key in on, so we don't see much of anything. I'll root against the members that show no blocking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's crazy, it looks a lot more like early February than early March. There was a time when I thought meaningful snow in the Mid Atlantic in March was a near impossibility, but the past few years... Not that it will verify. honestly I'm more surprised there aren't more runs looking like that given the blocking signals being shown. Op runs starting to step towards what I'd expect today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 it is odd that given all the blocking the eps still isn't showing much of anything. My guess is it's still pretty far out in time and also late in the season. Climo catching up to us. Starting to see models agreeing on a wave running the boundary. Those events are pretty discreet compared to a defined low trekking long distances. Could also be partly responsible for the muddy look to the ensembles. Para euro is similar to the op except we end up on the losing side of the boundary temp wise. We'll know a lot more over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 My guess is it's still pretty far out in time and also late in the season. Climo catching up to us. Starting to see models agreeing on a wave running the boundary. Those events are pretty discreet compared to a defined low trekking long distances. Could also be partly responsible for the muddy look to the ensembles. Para euro is similar to the op except we end up on the losing side of the boundary temp wise. We'll know a lot more over the next 5 days. I would bet against it going north of us in that setup. And the climo thing I was thinking but there wasn't even much signal in the higher elevations to our nw. Most of that is upslope after the Midwest bomb. You would think if climo is the problem those areas would show a signal. It's more just lack of anything organized on the runs that are cold. The 1/3 that break the pattern and warm up are also wet but rain everywhere. So the qpf mean and temps are misleading. I guess it's possible but I think they are just not keying on anything at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 That vort over Colorado coming east as the storm that just missed us is headed towards the 50/50 location seems interesting day 10 on the para euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I would bet against it going north of us in that setup. And the climo thing I was thinking but there wasn't even much signal in the higher elevations to our nw. Most of that is upslope after the Midwest bomb. You would think if climo is the problem those areas would show a signal. It's more just lack of anything organized on the runs that are cold. The 1/3 that break the pattern and warm up are also wet but rain everywhere. So the qpf mean and temps are misleading. I guess it's possible but I think they are just not keying on anything at range. Good point about the far western areas looking meh. If we do get a block over the top of the pv in SE Canada then maybe we should just stick to history and not worry much. That setup generally produces something and also doesn't vanish as quick as it comes. I'm pretty realxed about it. I know winter wx is off the table for a week. No late nights or over thinking for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I call bs on the day 9 miss though. Just looked at day 8 blocking centered over Greenland with the pv displaced south of it. Ridge axis out west over western Colorado. If anything that's a suppressed signal not a cutting nw of us one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Good point about the far western areas looking meh. If we do get a block over the top of the pv in SE Canada then maybe we should just stick to history and not worry much. That setup generally produces something and also doesn't vanish as quick as it comes. I'm pretty realxed about it. I know winter wx is off the table for a week. No late nights or over thinking for me. that's kinda my feeling right now. I'm not sweating each run. Today the ops started seeing some threats but way out and mixed signals. I expect as we get closer given the overall pattern once they see what vorts to key on real threats will pop up. Then we need some luck that one actually hits us but we had one good blocking period so far and that ended well so I see no reason to be overly pessimistic yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Very nice TN valley - MA overrunning setup on the 18z gfs. I love those events. Only need to be in the cross hairs. No relying on bombing lows and all that complicated stuff. Just return flow into a pressing boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Very nice TN valley - MA overrunning setup on the 18z gfs. I love those events. Only need to be in the cross hairs. No relying on bombing lows and all that complicated stuff. Just return flow into a pressing boundary.[/quote Love over running...long lasting and wet and cold...like my first...neveind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Very nice TN valley - MA overrunning setup on the 18z gfs. I love those events. Only need to be in the cross hairs. No relying on bombing lows and all that complicated stuff. Just return flow into a pressing boundary. I think that idea has shown up enough in that range that it's a real threat but it's bluncing around 150 miles every run. Im even more interested in after that. My gut says as the blocking relaxes something comes up the east coast. We may have several west to east type threats under the blocking before that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Very nice TN valley - MA overrunning setup on the 18z gfs. I love those events. Only need to be in the cross hairs. No relying on bombing lows and all that complicated stuff. Just return flow into a pressing boundary. It's a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I didn't get Wxbell until after the blizzard, so I don't know how the Euro mean or the individual members should look before a real storm. Since I've gotten Wxbell, I usually look first at the snowfall mean and don't bother to look further unless the mean looks good. The only time I can remember the mean looking good (almost 6") was one run last week when the Euro gave us 8" with this week's coming rainstorm, but then cut snowfall way back down after that run. Anyway, I think the mean tells the story better when it comes to snowfall vs. examining the members. The mean has been essentially 2", more or less, for most 15-day ensemble forecasts since the end of January and bwi has only recorded 2.6" so the mean has been close, if not a little bit more than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Mitch, the mean is always low out in time. There is rarely enough consensus to spike the mean until you get inside of 7-8 days. I always look for clusters within the members and get an idea of the upside. Downside is almost always zero d7+. The blizzard was as rare in model land as it was in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I didn't get Wxbell until after the blizzard, so I don't know how the Euro mean or the individual members should look before a real storm. Since I've gotten Wxbell, I usually look first at the snowfall mean and don't bother to look further unless the mean looks good. The only time I can remember the mean looking good (almost 6") was one run last week when the Euro gave us 8" with this week's coming rainstorm, but then cut snowfall way back down after that run. Anyway, I think the mean tells the story better when it comes to snowfall vs. examining the members. The mean has been essentially 2", more or less, for most 15-day ensemble forecasts since the end of January and bwi has only recorded 2.6" so the mean has been close, if not a little bit more than reality. from 10-15 days the snow mean was pretty weak before snowzilla. The signal was there looking at the h5 mean but the snowfall looked meh until about day 8-9 then it suddenly spiked up. I would like to see the snow mean increase but I bet it will soon. I think at long leads with blocking the ensembles tend to suppress things and can't see what to spin up into a storm. History says put a displaced pv over us with blocking over the top and sometging should be in the area. The storm could miss south or be an inland runner and hit just northwest but no threats for an extended period with that look seems unlikely. That's my logic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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