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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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And Euro also with a sizable snow in the D9-10 now. 4-8" DC, Northern Virginia, Central and Northern MD, Southern and SE PA, Central New Jersey into NYC. South of Route 50 it's mixy. It's not a healthy looking system but it works out (verbatim).

This is the one GFS has squashed...cold should be around town. Like these type set ups

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Eps mean is certainly unimpressed with the days 9-10 threat shown on the operational.

We gotta wait until the rain event moves out before having a better idea if there is real potential or not.

Just hug the 12z para gfs. If that verifies then we can just call it a wrap and start talking about next year.

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We gotta wait until the rain event moves out before having a better idea if there is real potential or not.

Just hug the 12z para gfs. If that verifies then we can just call it a wrap and start talking about next year.

it is odd that given all the blocking the eps still isn't showing much of anything. But they weren't that hot on snowzilla until it got within 8 days or so. A lot of the runs with the best blocking are dry. That might just be the models not seeing anything to key on from that far out so they let the blocking suppress everything. The members that don't have the blocking based on the pressures cut everything. The ops are starting to see things though so I'll run with that.
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We gotta wait until the rain event moves out before having a better idea if there is real potential or not.

Just hug the 12z para gfs. If that verifies then we can just call it a wrap and start talking about next year.

 

Dammit, Bob, now you went and made me go look at it!!  :P

 

I think most of us would take that and run, though the threat around the 3rd-4th looks marginal to warm (is that the one we were all sort of keying on?).  However, there's a light overrunning event right before that, and another solid event in the later periods.  Nice highs around, and blocking, so probably useless to delve into any thermal field stuff.  Heh...now that I look again, there's even a "fourth" potential that appears to be brewing right at 384 hours.  Nice to see possibilities out there, maybe at least one of those will give this winter a good send-off.

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Para gfs nice run. 3 threats that deliver light snow and cold throughout. Lost the warmup and seems to be developing something as it ends day 15.

It's crazy, it looks a lot more like early February than early March. There was a time when I thought meaningful snow in the Mid Atlantic in March was a near impossibility, but the past few years... Not that it will verify.

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it is odd that given all the blocking the eps still isn't showing much of anything. But they weren't that hot on snowzilla until it got within 8 days or so. A lot of the runs with the best blocking are dry. That might just be the models not seeing anything to key on from that far out so they let the blocking suppress everything. The members that don't have the blocking based on the pressures cut everything. The ops are starting to see things though so I'll run with that.

 

I'd think right now the important is that it's showing an overall blocking pattern (in the mean) for right now.  As you indicate, probably several shortwaves in there that the ensembles won't/cannot key in on, so we don't see much of anything.  I'll root against the members that show no blocking!

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It's crazy, it looks a lot more like early February than early March. There was a time when I thought meaningful snow in the Mid Atlantic in March was a near impossibility, but the past few years... Not that it will verify.

honestly I'm more surprised there aren't more runs looking like that given the blocking signals being shown. Op runs starting to step towards what I'd expect today.
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it is odd that given all the blocking the eps still isn't showing much of anything.

My guess is it's still pretty far out in time and also late in the season. Climo catching up to us.

Starting to see models agreeing on a wave running the boundary. Those events are pretty discreet compared to a defined low trekking long distances. Could also be partly responsible for the muddy look to the ensembles. Para euro is similar to the op except we end up on the losing side of the boundary temp wise.

We'll know a lot more over the next 5 days.

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My guess is it's still pretty far out in time and also late in the season. Climo catching up to us.

Starting to see models agreeing on a wave running the boundary. Those events are pretty discreet compared to a defined low trekking long distances. Could also be partly responsible for the muddy look to the ensembles. Para euro is similar to the op except we end up on the losing side of the boundary temp wise.

We'll know a lot more over the next 5 days.

I would bet against it going north of us in that setup. And the climo thing I was thinking but there wasn't even much signal in the higher elevations to our nw. Most of that is upslope after the Midwest bomb. You would think if climo is the problem those areas would show a signal. It's more just lack of anything organized on the runs that are cold. The 1/3 that break the pattern and warm up are also wet but rain everywhere. So the qpf mean and temps are misleading. I guess it's possible but I think they are just not keying on anything at range.
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I would bet against it going north of us in that setup. And the climo thing I was thinking but there wasn't even much signal in the higher elevations to our nw. Most of that is upslope after the Midwest bomb. You would think if climo is the problem those areas would show a signal. It's more just lack of anything organized on the runs that are cold. The 1/3 that break the pattern and warm up are also wet but rain everywhere. So the qpf mean and temps are misleading. I guess it's possible but I think they are just not keying on anything at range.

Good point about the far western areas looking meh.

If we do get a block over the top of the pv in SE Canada then maybe we should just stick to history and not worry much. That setup generally produces something and also doesn't vanish as quick as it comes.

I'm pretty realxed about it. I know winter wx is off the table for a week. No late nights or over thinking for me.

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Good point about the far western areas looking meh.

If we do get a block over the top of the pv in SE Canada then maybe we should just stick to history and not worry much. That setup generally produces something and also doesn't vanish as quick as it comes.

I'm pretty realxed about it. I know winter wx is off the table for a week. No late nights or over thinking for me.

that's kinda my feeling right now. I'm not sweating each run. Today the ops started seeing some threats but way out and mixed signals. I expect as we get closer given the overall pattern once they see what vorts to key on real threats will pop up. Then we need some luck that one actually hits us but we had one good blocking period so far and that ended well so I see no reason to be overly pessimistic yet.
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Very nice TN valley - MA overrunning setup on the 18z gfs. I love those events. Only need to be in the cross hairs. No relying on bombing lows and all that complicated stuff. Just return flow into a pressing boundary.[/quote

Love over running...long lasting and wet and cold...like my first...neveind

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Very nice TN valley - MA overrunning setup on the 18z gfs. I love those events. Only need to be in the cross hairs. No relying on bombing lows and all that complicated stuff. Just return flow into a pressing boundary.

I think that idea has shown up enough in that range that it's a real threat but it's bluncing around 150 miles every run. Im even more interested in after that. My gut says as the blocking relaxes something comes up the east coast. We may have several west to east type threats under the blocking before that though.
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I didn't get Wxbell until after the blizzard, so I don't know how the Euro mean or the individual members should look before a real storm. Since I've gotten Wxbell, I usually look first at the snowfall mean and don't bother to look further unless the mean looks good. The only time I can remember the mean looking good (almost 6") was one run last week when the Euro gave us 8" with this week's coming rainstorm, but then cut snowfall way back down after that run. Anyway, I think the mean tells the story better when it comes to snowfall vs. examining the members. The mean has been essentially 2", more or less, for most 15-day ensemble forecasts since the end of January and bwi has only recorded 2.6" so the mean has been close, if not a little bit more than reality.

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Mitch, the mean is always low out in time. There is rarely enough consensus to spike the mean until you get inside of 7-8 days.

I always look for clusters within the members and get an idea of the upside. Downside is almost always zero d7+.

The blizzard was as rare in model land as it was in reality.

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I didn't get Wxbell until after the blizzard, so I don't know how the Euro mean or the individual members should look before a real storm. Since I've gotten Wxbell, I usually look first at the snowfall mean and don't bother to look further unless the mean looks good. The only time I can remember the mean looking good (almost 6") was one run last week when the Euro gave us 8" with this week's coming rainstorm, but then cut snowfall way back down after that run. Anyway, I think the mean tells the story better when it comes to snowfall vs. examining the members. The mean has been essentially 2", more or less, for most 15-day ensemble forecasts since the end of January and bwi has only recorded 2.6" so the mean has been close, if not a little bit more than reality.

from 10-15 days the snow mean was pretty weak before snowzilla. The signal was there looking at the h5 mean but the snowfall looked meh until about day 8-9 then it suddenly spiked up. I would like to see the snow mean increase but I bet it will soon. I think at long leads with blocking the ensembles tend to suppress things and can't see what to spin up into a storm. History says put a displaced pv over us with blocking over the top and sometging should be in the area. The storm could miss south or be an inland runner and hit just northwest but no threats for an extended period with that look seems unlikely. That's my logic right now.
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