Ian Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Superninoing snowstorm south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Superninoing snowstorm south of us This is like the 10th time you've called for it...this might be the one!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Pretty sure BWI did ok in 1980 and a couple inches made it into southern PA. Cold storm too.Bwi had 5", Dca 6"+, Richmond 13", & Elizabeth City, NC 20'ishEDIT: As I think about it, I think some places in NC got close to 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 This is like the 10th time you've called for it...this might be the one!! LolYou'll probably be about 5 miles north of the edge superband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 You'll probably be about 5 miles north of the edge superband. I moved south in a supernino on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Watching models this time of becoming depressing... we know it is coming to an end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro looks better, as in north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is further north but kinda looks like a sheared mess but it would be some light snow verbatim...1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro is further north but kinda looks like a sheared mess but it would be some light snow verbatim...1-3"?Yeah, money panels not quite out on Wxbell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah, money panels not quite out on Wxbell Yeah, wxbell is being funny..cant tell what 144-150 would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah, wxbell is being funny..cant tell what 144-150 would beIt has the makings of a great event if it can get its act together a little sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 4-5" per wxbell snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Based on the maps posted in the NYC forum the low position and 850s work for us, low right off NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 2-4...not sure the daytime stuff would accumulate that well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Based on the maps posted in the NYC forum the low position and 850s work for us, low right off NC/VA border.Yeah, everything is good but a little weakish. Even comes in at night with a big High to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah, everything is good but a little weakish. Even comes in at night with a big High to our north.Sign me up, I'm in for a minor event to close out the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Its a nice track, I suppose it could trend stronger...we deff get nickled and dimed with no panel showing more than .2...If that is verbatim its probably not a great event with March sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 1-3/2-4...not sure the daytime stuff would accumulate that wellMosr if the qpf has fallen by 12z, or 15z, so I like the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Mosr if the qpf has fallen by 12z, or 15z, so I like the timing. True, but we know that may change....Im rooting against if it isnt obvious, I have a 9AM flight to Nashville Fri morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Nice track on the euro. Some nice runs today. I'm going with a blend of gfs strength and euro track for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 i would agree but I just caution against the attitude that it always has to trend north. I guess it does except all the times it doesn't. Agreed regarding the "north trend". We don't appear to have the same mechanics in place this time that caused other systems to shift N and W as we got closer to the event.....namely no huge EPO ridge and the WAR is weakening. Not saying a pumping of the ridge out West couldn't cause changes downstream irt a North trend, but I'm with psu here...not every system has to come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 How many suppressed storms have we had this winter? Don't odds at least favor a north shift? yes. But be careful assuming past results always predict future outcomes that's all. We actually have had a few waves that looked good at range get squashed. Not many and we tend to forget them. They didn't end up snow to our south so they weren't things we would recollect. They mostly were weak washed out rain to our south or nothing but the idea was they were squashed systems. Sometimes when I point out what I'm most concerned about people mistake it for what I think will happen so let me be clear I think we are fine where things are right now. Snowzilla was a rare exception but usually you don't want to be bullseyed this far out. Then tour rooting for the models to be dead on from 100 plus hrs and hats usually a fail. And if I had to choose where I want to need an adjustment it's to be rooting for a north or more amped trend not south. Just saying that if you told me when next week is over I didn't get snow I would bet it's because the flow was too suppressive and nothing could amp up or come north not because it snowed a ton to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif prolonged -ao just in time for march Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro ens tell us not to worry about suppression. But worry about ptype instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Yeah, everything is good but a little weakish. Even comes in at night with a big High to our north. mjo looks better again. Ok on euro even better on gefs. I'm getting hopeful that just like things shifted towards a better pattern in the 5-10 day when it got closer that the same will happen with the 10-15. It's really getting late I know but I like the mid March period for the chance of some monster system coming from the south running into high pressure north of us with all the higher heights over Canada. Might be a big rainstorm but that's the general theme I'm looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro ens tell us not to worry about suppression. But worry about ptype instead. As has been the the winter theme despite the mechanisms at play this go around . I can almost hear the NYC weather enthusiasts cheering, here comes the eventual westward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro ens tell us not to worry about suppression. But worry about ptype instead. just peeking at the low positions it seems to me the bigger problem is too weak not too north. I only count a handful that track over us or north. The vast majority are a money track but only 998-1004 mb. That is another type of suppression to me. If this is too weak it won't work. We need a sub 995 low probably. Some of the runs with a great track are a weak suppressed mess of light rain and snow then get organized to our east too late. on the up side it's still not a bad look for this range. The things were talking about are nit picky compared to where we were a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 mjo looks better again. Ok on euro even better on gefs. I'm getting hopeful that just like things shifted towards a better pattern in the 5-10 day when it got closer that the same will happen with the 10-15. It's really getting late I know but I like the mid March period for the chance of some monster system coming from the south running into high pressure north of us with all the higher heights over Canada. Might be a big rainstorm but that's the general theme I'm looking for. DT firmly proclaims this it it for the Mid Atlantic. You never know though. It has been a winter of complexities. This is the first winter in a while where the CPC winter forecast turned out superior. I bet next year we get the - NAO and -AO as well, when most do not forecast it. I imagine the indirect result of the upcoming active Atlantic Hurricane season could play a hand at the formation of an averaged negative NAO next winter. Just a thought. Speaking of the Atlantic, the beaches have water temps off NJ and DE way above last year at this time. Water should be nice for beach goers earlier this year than the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 This time of year its a given that any storm coming this way will carry with it possible ptype issues. I am pleased that we have energy tracking beneath us and cold enough air nearby at this point, with only finer details to work out in coming days. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Euro ens tell us not to worry about suppression. But worry about ptype instead. CMC ensemble showed almost all rain last night, but it got a little better today. Still mostly rain though. The 12z GEFS members that give us anything tend to give us mostly snow. The 12z para GFS is much more suppressed than 06z and has no real problems with ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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