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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Good luck getting it to turn north into that wall of high pressure

We need the vortex to the north to move faster lifting to the northeast and then the low could move northeastward and the high would be a tad weaker or farther to the north.  That vortex doesn't give the southern stream room and it keeps the confluence too far south for us. 

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We need the vortex to the north to move faster lifting to the northeast and then the low could move northeastward and the high would be a tad weaker or farther to the north. That vortex doesn't give the southern stream room and it keeps the confluence too far south for us.

Almost every time we've seen suppressive flow this year it has backed off as we get closer. It's the reason we've only seen 1 airmass verify cold. Medium range cold has ended up less cold almost every time.

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Almost every time we've seen suppressive flow this year it has backed off as we get closer. It's the reason we've only seen 1 airmass verify cold. Medium range cold has ended up less cold almost every time.

Yep, This monday we were originally going to have an arctic airmass over us and now it will be pushing 60 so I wouldn

t be a bit surprised if it was weaker with the cold and less suppressed than forecast.  Right now I'd lean towards the Euro but.....would leave things up in the air if I was writing a CWG article. 

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I will say that if we do fail and NC gets smoked I'd be pretty happy for them. They've had some tough breaks this year.

It will be interesting to see what the GEFS looks like. And I am with you, they have missed out a lot in recent winters. Rather see them get clobbered and be fringed, than have us get rain while NE gets destroyed lol.

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Bob's doing my job this morning I see. Dam straight it'll be north. That's not to say we'll be the bullseye, but it'll be north imho too.

Ukie agrees vehemently.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

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See the GFS op is still suppressing it and out to sea.

 

Just some thoughts but after looking over the earlier discussion about the ridge out west I wonder if we really want to see it stronger. With the trough axis being neutral quite a bit east of the Mississippi on both the GEFS and the EPS I would think that a stronger ridge and a corresponding deepening of the trough would take us out of the game. As evidenced by the multiple runs of the GFS with a suppressed and out to sea solution. The EPS on the other hand has a much weaker ridge and less digging of the trough that allows the low to form farther north and swing through as the trough progresses. IF my reasoning is correct this would suggest that the potential is capped with this storm because the solution that works for our region involves a somewhat progressive storm. 

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I generally agree with the idea that I would rather it be suppressed at this range. It's too soon to worry about anything specific like exact track. But at the same time I won't pretend it couldn't happen that way. Highzenburg was right with his comment about the ridging/kicker situation being a possible issue. It's way too early to know and Bob is right that given this years tendencies I want it south right now but there were a few analogs I saw the last few days that were misses to the south. I think March 1980 showed up. That was a big storm for south and central va. I think DC got some from that but it was nothing up here and mostly a miss for the DC bwi area too. I would bet it comes north and more amped but I do think given the pattern now the suppression is the bigger concern with the day 5-6 storm right now.

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I generally agree with the idea that I would rather it be suppressed at this range. It's too soon to worry about anything specific like exact track. But at the same time I won't pretend it couldn't happen that way. Highzenburg was right with his comment about the ridging/kicker situation being a possible issue. It's way too early to know and Bob is right that given this years tendencies I want it south right now but there were a few analogs I saw the last few days that were misses to the south. I think March 1980 showed up. That was a big storm for south and central va. I think DC got some from that but it was nothing up here and mostly a miss for the DC bwi area too. I would bet it comes north and more amped but I do think given the pattern now the suppression is the bigger concern with the day 5-6 storm right now.

Less for Baltimore, but 3/80 was as good as 1/30/10 for the DC area.

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I generally agree with the idea that I would rather it be suppressed at this range. It's too soon to worry about anything specific like exact track. But at the same time I won't pretend it couldn't happen that way. Highzenburg was right with his comment about the ridging/kicker situation being a possible issue. It's way too early to know and Bob is right that given this years tendencies I want it south right now but there were a few analogs I saw the last few days that were misses to the south. I think March 1980 showed up. That was a big storm for south and central va. I think DC got some from that but it was nothing up here and mostly a miss for the DC bwi area too. I would bet it comes north and more amped but I do think given the pattern now the suppression is the bigger concern with the day 5-6 storm right now.

Pretty sure BWI did ok in 1980 and a couple inches made it into southern PA. Cold storm too.
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