Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Nice to have something to track. What also is nice, is that this could become a warning event without too much trouble, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I like the GFS look @ 105 hrs, looks like our shortwave might dig farther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I like the GFS look @ 105 hrs, looks like our shortwave might dig farther Good luck getting it to turn north into that wall of high pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I just need a couple inches to crack 36". One decent event from 40". I want a big event as much as anybody but will be completely happy to have something measurable in March. Agreed. What a three-year stretch it's been -- Dulles with 53, 37 and 33 (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ha, GFS is close, but likely heading out to sea just to our SE. That would be a painful kick in the you know what to round out winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Big event for the SE...Makes sense if the ridge is going to collapse like that because the storm will just be forced E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Good luck getting it to turn north into that wall of high pressure We need the vortex to the north to move faster lifting to the northeast and then the low could move northeastward and the high would be a tad weaker or farther to the north. That vortex doesn't give the southern stream room and it keeps the confluence too far south for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ha, GFS is close, but likely heading out to sea just to our SE. That would be a painful kick in the you know what to round out winter. It's not a flat solution. Nice closed low. Is suppression at range really a worry? Has that happened all year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 We need the vortex to the north to move faster lifting to the northeast and then the low could move northeastward and the high would be a tad weaker or farther to the north. That vortex doesn't give the southern stream room and it keeps the confluence too far south for us. Almost every time we've seen suppressive flow this year it has backed off as we get closer. It's the reason we've only seen 1 airmass verify cold. Medium range cold has ended up less cold almost every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It's not a flat solution. Nice closed low. Is suppression at range really a worry? Has that happened all year? And its hard to believe it would be now, in March. Plus this is a GFS bias at range. This is getting interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It's not a flat solution. Nice closed low. Is suppression at range really a worry? Has that happened all year? Rather this solution from the GFS at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I will say that if we do fail and NC gets smoked I'd be pretty happy for them. They've had some tough breaks this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Almost every time we've seen suppressive flow this year it has backed off as we get closer. It's the reason we've only seen 1 airmass verify cold. Medium range cold has ended up less cold almost every time. Yep, This monday we were originally going to have an arctic airmass over us and now it will be pushing 60 so I wouldn t be a bit surprised if it was weaker with the cold and less suppressed than forecast. Right now I'd lean towards the Euro but.....would leave things up in the air if I was writing a CWG article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I will say that if we do fail and NC gets smoked I'd be pretty happy for them. They've had some tough breaks this year. It will be interesting to see what the GEFS looks like. And I am with you, they have missed out a lot in recent winters. Rather see them get clobbered and be fringed, than have us get rain while NE gets destroyed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 It's not a flat solution. Nice closed low. Is suppression at range really a worry? Has that happened all year? Oh, I would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Oh, I would agreeBob's doing my job this morning I see. Dam straight it'll be north. That's not to say we'll be the bullseye, but it'll be north imho too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Bob's doing my job this morning I see. Dam straight it'll be north. That's not to say we'll be the bullseye, but it'll be north imho too.Ukie agrees vehemently. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ukie agrees vehemently. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Ukie looks like the 06z para GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 UKIE has liked this time period for a few runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I posted the 144 hr map. But if you go back to the 120 hour map, that's a really good track for us 120 hrs to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Ukie agrees vehemently. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 But the low is west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 But the low is west of us?See my post above. It's moving eastward to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 See the GFS op is still suppressing it and out to sea. Just some thoughts but after looking over the earlier discussion about the ridge out west I wonder if we really want to see it stronger. With the trough axis being neutral quite a bit east of the Mississippi on both the GEFS and the EPS I would think that a stronger ridge and a corresponding deepening of the trough would take us out of the game. As evidenced by the multiple runs of the GFS with a suppressed and out to sea solution. The EPS on the other hand has a much weaker ridge and less digging of the trough that allows the low to form farther north and swing through as the trough progresses. IF my reasoning is correct this would suggest that the potential is capped with this storm because the solution that works for our region involves a somewhat progressive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I generally agree with the idea that I would rather it be suppressed at this range. It's too soon to worry about anything specific like exact track. But at the same time I won't pretend it couldn't happen that way. Highzenburg was right with his comment about the ridging/kicker situation being a possible issue. It's way too early to know and Bob is right that given this years tendencies I want it south right now but there were a few analogs I saw the last few days that were misses to the south. I think March 1980 showed up. That was a big storm for south and central va. I think DC got some from that but it was nothing up here and mostly a miss for the DC bwi area too. I would bet it comes north and more amped but I do think given the pattern now the suppression is the bigger concern with the day 5-6 storm right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 Bob's doing my job this morning I see. Dam straight it'll be north. That's not to say we'll be the bullseye, but it'll be north imho too.i would agree but I just caution against the attitude that it always has to trend north. I guess it does except all the times it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 i would agree but I just caution against the attitude that it always has to trend north. I guess it does except all the times it doesn't. How many suppressed storms have we had this winter? Don't odds at least favor a north shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I generally agree with the idea that I would rather it be suppressed at this range. It's too soon to worry about anything specific like exact track. But at the same time I won't pretend it couldn't happen that way. Highzenburg was right with his comment about the ridging/kicker situation being a possible issue. It's way too early to know and Bob is right that given this years tendencies I want it south right now but there were a few analogs I saw the last few days that were misses to the south. I think March 1980 showed up. That was a big storm for south and central va. I think DC got some from that but it was nothing up here and mostly a miss for the DC bwi area too. I would bet it comes north and more amped but I do think given the pattern now the suppression is the bigger concern with the day 5-6 storm right now. Less for Baltimore, but 3/80 was as good as 1/30/10 for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 I generally agree with the idea that I would rather it be suppressed at this range. It's too soon to worry about anything specific like exact track. But at the same time I won't pretend it couldn't happen that way. Highzenburg was right with his comment about the ridging/kicker situation being a possible issue. It's way too early to know and Bob is right that given this years tendencies I want it south right now but there were a few analogs I saw the last few days that were misses to the south. I think March 1980 showed up. That was a big storm for south and central va. I think DC got some from that but it was nothing up here and mostly a miss for the DC bwi area too. I would bet it comes north and more amped but I do think given the pattern now the suppression is the bigger concern with the day 5-6 storm right now.Pretty sure BWI did ok in 1980 and a couple inches made it into southern PA. Cold storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2016 Share Posted February 27, 2016 The GEFS has stronger ridging out west and looks even worse with the suppression. Individual members have taken a hit somewhat on snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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