Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

[wxdude64]

Mar 9 1999 on there. Feb 12 2010 (close enough?).

I'll take a repeat of first two weeks of March 99 for 200 Alex.......

[CAPE]

woah, the gfs is.... odd?

 

wierd evolution

 

snowmap warning in marginal situation but 

 

 

Not sure that map is even close to what the 18z GFS is suggesting. Looks about the same as 12z to me...couple inches? But more as you head northeast, just not THAT much.

[BristowWx]

woah, the gfs is.... odd?

 

wierd evolution

 

snowmap warning in marginal situation but 

 

Little further SE and we would all be in business. But this looks complicated and that usually spells disaster. Still better than It looked on Wednesday

[psuhoffman]

I honk when necessary. Could still be cold rain for me.

 

d11-15 EPS actually looks better than next week too.

yea I have been looking at that period as the "best look" but the one before it is becoming pretty good too now.  I think its coming into some focus that we will have two vorts coming through the trough behind the cutter next week in the 6-10 day period.  After that we may have an STJ system coming from the south to track but thats forever out there. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Hey guys. In Orlando playing golf. We got a chance? Haven't had time to read much.

 

I would put the chances of snow in Orlando as low.

[Fozz]

If it's going to snow, it better be worth it. A couple inches in March is meh-worthy after the last two Marchs.

 

Especially if it's sloppy and melts in two hours.

 

I want a paste job. 6"+. Either that or spring.

[Heisy]

Models still vary on which wave to focus on, etc. etc....got a long way to go....but def. feeling good about things. 

[Interstate]

0z Nam is a disaster

[Thanatos_I_Am]

0z Nam is a disaster

You got me, for a second. Phew

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[clskinsfan]

Hmmm. I might have cancelled too soon. The medium/long range look on the models earlier this week was awful. And now we have a complete flip to a snowy first half of March solution. Go figure.

[psuhoffman]

Hmmm. I might have cancelled too soon. The medium/long range look on the models earlier this week was awful. And now we have a complete flip to a snowy first half of March solution. Go figure.

the background drivers were always pretty good. For some reason the models were struggling with it. Things are trending better for the same reason they always trend worse when the models show snow in a pattern that doesn't really support it. Teleconnections usually win. I think the fact that the pattern has potential is now clear but that's only half the battle. Now we need to get lucky and have a specific storm hit our exact location.

[Interstate]

Now the 0z GFS on the other hand...

[AlaskaETC]

0z GFS says nope.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

0z GFS says nope.

To the first one

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[Heisy]

Reallly see a trend towards the EURO @ 117. Look at the energy in the NW....The storm on the 2nd is the cold air source....I don't think the energy out west will be strong enough this run, we'll see. The energy over the Lakes @ 117 will form the potential 50/50 hopefully. 

[Bob Chill]

Gfs looks good in general. Nice vort pass south and cold air in place. Good trends continue.

[AlaskaETC]

Is that a triple phaser that the GFS is showing at the end of the 0z run? Just curious if I am looking at the pattern right...I know it's fantasy range.

[cae]

GFS took a step towards the Euro / CMC solution with a stronger second wave (compared to previous runs) and more spacing between the waves.  The GGEM went back to having the primary low for the second wave pass south of us, like the Euro.  But even with a low track through NC, we end up with mostly rain. 

[mitchnick]

Ukie day 6 looks good

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144

[Amped]

All tonights 00z runs look like crap, unless you're happy with a chance of 1-2" followed by a big warmup. There was one good event this year. No we're back to the 2012-2013 untrackable outside chance of a cartopper crap.

[CAPE]

All tonights 00z runs look like crap, unless you're happy with a chance of 1-2" followed by a big warmup. There was one good event this year. No we're back to the 2012-2013 untrackable outside chance of a cartopper crap.

lol

[AlaskaETC]

I thought the 0z Euro looked good? I'm only looking the Tropical Tidbits version though.

[CAPE]

Positive trends overall with the 0z suite. Looks like 2 chances inside of 10 days on EPS. Both the day 6-7 and day 9 threats have the low locations mostly just to our south, and then clustered off the VA/NC coast. Still quite a spread within that as expected. Roughly 26 members have some snow or snow very close by, with a few big hits in there. 10 day mean snowfall is 2"+ for most of the area.

[CAPE]

I though the 0z Euro looked good? I'm only looking the Tropical Tidbits version though.

He is just whinging without a clue.

 

0z Euro op had a big snowstorm for central/eastern VA into the lower Delmarva (6-10"), with 1-2" around DC and less north. See my post above on the EPS.

[showmethesnow]

Looking over what has become the cliff jumping 00Z ensembles was actually encouraging for the first time in the last few days. Now this is all predicated on the fact that the solution the EPS has been locking onto for the day 6-7 event is correct so keep that in mind.

 

With the GEFS it is probably best not to overthink it at this point. It is having issues with what it wants to key on in the next 4-7 day period and this is reflected from run to run and between it's members. It is probably best just to know that it does spit out solutions that are very similar to the EPS and for the most part they produce for the region.

 

As far as the JV team (CMC), instead of just hinting at it as in previous runs, it now shows a very similar solution as the EPS at both 500 mb and on the surface. It has a front running system to our north and west at roughly day 4-5 and a trailer day 6-7 that tracks underneath us from the S and E. All and all it was a very good look and lends credibility to the EPS.

[showmethesnow]

The EPS continues with its idea of a front runner with a trailer underneath us around day 6. The track looks to have adjusted slightly north but doesn't seem have hurt the 850's and surface which actually are colder through our region. As far as the mean snowfall it did tick down from the 12Z run but I actually think that is misleading because compared to the previous 00Z run it actually increased which is probably a better indicator. Here's why I think this. For some reason over the last couple of days there seems to be a fairly significant difference between the qpf output between the wetter Happy Hour 12Z runs and the dryer suicide 00Z runs. And I think this more then temps (which actually look pretty good) is what is driving the snowfall means. Now which is more correct is the question and I would probably lean towards the wetter 12Z solution with the Euro's penchant for underplaying qpf in the mid and long range. All in all it was a good run as long as the slight shift north was just noise and not a developing trend.

 

Just a side note but both the EPS and the CMC both like the idea of a one two punch with a followup around the 8-9 day period.

[CAPE]

The EPS continues with its idea of a front runner with a trailer underneath us around day 6. The track looks to have adjusted slightly north but doesn't seem have hurt the 850's and surface which actually are colder through our region. As far as the mean snowfall it did tick down from the 12Z run but I actually think that is misleading because compared to the previous 00Z run it actually increased which is probably a better indicator. Here's why I think this. For some reason over the last couple of days there seems to be a fairly significant difference between the qpf output between the wetter Happy Hour 12Z runs and the dryer suicide 00Z runs. And I think this more then temps (which actually look pretty good) is what is driving the snowfall means. Now which is more correct is the question and I would probably lean towards the wetter 12Z solution with the Euro's penchant for underplaying qpf in the mid and long range. All in all it was a good run as long as the slight shift north was just noise and not a developing trend.

 

Just a side note but both the EPS and the CMC both like the idea of a one two punch with a followup around the 8-9 day period.

With regards to the snowfall mean, I looked at the last 4 runs, and the 10 day mean has generally decreased for areas to the north and west, up into PA, and there has been a subtle increase for areas SE of DC the last 2 cycles. DC has pretty much stayed the same from 12z to 0z. (The previous 2 cycles I did not notice a discernible wetter/drier in the snowfall mean between 12 and 0z run). If you click through the last 4 cycles on a regional view of the snowfall mean, you can see what may be an indication of a general shift in the storm track to a more southern one. There are some members with snow further south into VA than previous runs.

[showmethesnow]

With regards to the snowfall mean. I looked at the last 4 runs, and the 10 day mean has generally decreased for areas to the north and west, up into PA, and there has been a subtle increase for areas SE of DC the last 2 cycles. DC has pretty much stayed the same from 12z to 0z. (The previous 2 cycles I did not notice a discernible wetter/drier in the snowfall mean between 12 and 0z run). This could be an indication of a shift in the storm track to a more southern one, as there are some members with snow further south into VA than previous runs.

My posts were  focused on the 1st potential event so I was looking at the means for immediately after that and not for both possible events. As far as the wetter, dryer that was in reference to liquid not snowfall and was specifically for the first event. Sorry, I should have been clearer. Was just trying to keep my post from being to wordy.

[showmethesnow]

After looking over the 06Z GEFS I think I may have dismissed it out of hand too quickly. Over the last few runs it actually has been locking in on a solution and it is somewhat similar to the EPS. The difference is that the initial front runner is farther east which then lays the boundary farther east as well. With this we then see the trailer turn north, not up the coast as the EPS, but instead out to sea. 

 

Considering that the Euro/CMC combo are hard to beat, and maybe a little of the fact they are the snowier solution, I think I lean towards their solution. 

[CAPE]

My posts were  focused on the 1st potential event so I was looking at the means for immediately after that and not for both possible events. As far as the wetter, dryer that was in reference to liquid not snowfall and was specifically for the first event. Sorry, I should have been clearer. Was just trying to keep my post from being to wordy.

Gotcha. In general there appears to be a trend in the guidance for a more favorable(more southern) track for the upcoming event(s). I don't usually do much more than glance at snowfall means, but yeah there is a decrease from yesterdays 12z to this morning's 0z for event 1.