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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

WinterWxLuvr

By WinterWxLuvr,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

why not?

attachicon.gifyaysnow.PNG

If there were a bigger ridge out West as opposed to just a flat ridge, we would probably have a monster storm on our hands DC-NYC. The way it appears there verbatim, we are relying almost solely on the ridging near Greenland to displace the PV causing a small buckle in the flow. Big win for the MA if this holds! What could possibly go wrong in 7 days?
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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

If there were a bigger ridge out West as opposed to just a flat ridge, we would probably have a monster storm on our hands DC-NYC. The way it appears there verbatim, we are relying almost solely on the ridging near Greenland to displace the PV causing a small buckle in the flow. Big win for the MA if this holds! What could possibly go wrong in 7 days?

 

somewhat progressive is fine with me...not every storm is going to be huge.  Plus there would be the bonus that it might miss NYC...

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

     Great examples here.   I have to add in my favorite:  November 1995.    In the 60's ahead of the cold front, even got a severe thunderstorm watch.   Squall line came through with wide area of stratiform precip behind it.   Rain turned to snow and accumulated several inches in the northwestern suburbs.

I think I remember this well! Huge wet snowflakes and it did coat the roads in Fairfax. I was out driving and it reminded me of the Warp Speed Star Wars effect

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

This is probably the most frequent way March snows occur. There have been so many systems over the last 20 years that ended in a period of accumulating snow. Usually they are in the 1-3, 2-4 variety because there just is not much precip left once it's cold enough for the changeover. The period of snow is often short lived but does come down heavily. Usually this scenario only benefits areas N and W of  the beltways but some snow gets into the cities. Some of these cases overachieved and produced 4-6 inches, mainly confined to areas 20 miles outside the cities. That seems to be the max one of these storms can produce.

 

Some examples:

Early March 1999: 1-3 immediate suburbs, 3-6 extended burbs. This was an all out blizzard for western PA and western NY. The super clipper followed several days later that crushed IAD. Then 5 days later a strong storm produced heavy snow N and W and some snow in the cities.

 

March 2005: very similar to above mentioned storm.

 

March 1995: A strong cold front with heavy rain changed to heavy snow for a few hours producing 1-4 depending on location.

 

March 1997 and 1998: Both years had rainy cold fronts that ended in a couple sloppy inches for the favored locations.

 

April 2000 same scenario as other storms. 

 

I can think of many others but no need to mention them all. I don't want to get carried away. Bottom line is I wouldn't bet against 1 or 2 more accumulating events. Especially for our locations. 

 

 

     Great examples here.   I have to add in my favorite:  November 1995.    In the 60's ahead of the cold front, even got a severe thunderstorm watch.   Squall line came through with wide area of stratiform precip behind it.   Rain turned to snow and accumulated several inches in the northwestern suburbs.

 

I might even add March 30 (or was it the 29th?), 2014.  Cold rain much of that day, which turned into a period of sleet then some fairly heavy snow for a couple hours.  I think it was more localized, but a quick inch fell at least on grassy areas.  Paste job type of thing.

 

And of course there was March 5 last year, though that was perhaps a best case "extreme" scenario.  Rain overnight into the early morning ahead of a front, cold air moved in, and a wave moved along the front with moderate/heavy snow from mid-morning into late afternoon (got 6.5" here, temps were in the 20s throughout the rest of the day).  We lucked out with that secondary wave propagating up the front rather than having it get squashed way to our south.  I recall the GFS hinted at post-frontal snow even a week out for that event.

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted

somewhat progressive is fine with me...not every storm is going to be huge.  Plus there would be the bonus that it might miss NYC...

 

We don't have to have anything huge (or even Yuuuge!) to have a good snow event, of course.  I'd be perfectly good with something like we got the past two years in March to round things out.

 

(ETA:  I LOL'ed, I admit, at your "bonus" comment!)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Considering there was virtually no support for a storm on the 0z EPS like the 12z op showed l think it was a pretty decent bump in the right direction with the 12z EPS. Decent support for a coastal but a lot of spread of coarse. Hopefully we can start a trend today and not keep stepping back. 

 

There are a couple monster eps members but the large majority say notsofast. Control run is a nice shellacking. 

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cae

cae

Posted
Posted

Both the Euro and GGEM are developing the second wave into something, and the GFS looks like it has trended that way.  They're all still bouncing around, but on the publicly available maps it looks like the Euro has consistently developed the low to our south for the last few runs.  The GGEM did that yesterday (the near miss I posted yesterday), and today it gradually transfers to a coastal that pounds New England and potentially keeps things cold enough around here so that we'd see some snow.  It has the coastal developing over South Carolina while the primary low is over Lake Eerie.

 

I'd like to see the GFS get on board with the development of the second wave and the Euro and GGEM to meet somewhere in the middle, but closer to what the Euro shows.  Not a bad place to be one week out.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Right. Thru day 8.5 it's 1.5-2". Same place we've been since the blizzard almost every run. So if it's going to snow, the ensemble mean doesn't reflect it.

Pretty decent pickup from the 00Z run even day 10 sees a good mean snowfall pickup. Doesn't mean much though because what the 12Z happy hour giveth the 00Z taketh away.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Mitch loves mean snowfall.

Big step in the right direction from last night.

0z @ 186

0zepshr186.JPG

12z @ 174

12epshr174.JPG

Well, I'm waiting to see a change/increase from what seems to be the background mean, if I can call it that, of 2" +/-. We're not seeing that yet. That's not to say it can't snow, but considering we've been stuck there for a month now with so little to show for it, I'm going to assume that we need an increase in the mean or it's more of the same...no appreciable snowfall.
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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Day 12.5 imby and basically all of I95 it's at 2.5". Again, no appreciable increase.

True, not much improvement your way Like the look of the steeper gradient just to your north and west and hopefully we see that eventually expand south and east. Of course I am not fully buying into all this yet. Need to see this for a few more runs.

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