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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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I've been looking at this too, and noticed what you are talking about in terms of the mid level and surface temps in some of the model runs.  When one looks at the 500 mb flow (of either the ops or ensembles), you would think "wow, that looks pretty darned good, we may well have one last event to track."  I'm talking from the period right after the (non)-event middle of next week through about the first week of March.  But then, the 850 mb and 2 m temps looked pretty "meh", or at least warmer than what I would have expected.  Not sure why.  On the ensembles, I'd guess a good bit of spread is causing that in part.  Also, maybe it really is partly because we're looking at the beginning of March, implying you need something quite amplified to cool it off.  I know we cannot directly compare other years to this one per se or say that the same things will happen, but we have mustered some really cold air during the day in March, along with solid snow events in the past couple of years.  With the projected 500 mb  flow being shown, I'd say that's reason to be encouraged if we're looking for one last snow to track (or next-to-last, haha!).  Actually, in checking last night's models, the temps look a bit more "in line" (so to speak) with what you see at 500 mb, whatever that is worth.

 

I haven't seen much in regard to the overrunning potential around Feb. 29, but that signal for Mar. 2-3 sure is showing up.

  

Really like what the 6z gefs is serving up d8-11. Once we get into late winter the big cold pushes don't blast to Atlanta or jacksonville nearly as easily. The boundary is more apt to stall and lift. Good precip can run the gradient. 6z gefs solutions really show this as does the op. EPS is pretty uneventful but that can easily change as we move through time.

I'm pretty optimistic for a last hurrah as well.

I have been trying to figure out how the ensembles come up with that look in the long range and I would bet what's going on is a majority have the consensus look with blocking across the top. But there must be a divergent camp that breaks it down or pulls the north PAC trough east and super torches the conus. That could account for the weird look. Best example is the day 15 eps. Nice ridging across northern Canada centered in western Canada but extending across to Greenland. Then also higher heights across the Midwest into the east. I can't even see how that map can be accurate. Having higher heights directly downstream from epo ridging violates basic wave physics. The better explanation is the epo ridge is on the means from the majority and the lesser ridging across the conus is from a few members that don't have the epo and super torch us. That makes more sense to me.

The gefs looks better day 10-12 because it has the displaced pv further west allowing something to amplify along the east coast. Eps has that pv right above us. There is a cutter signal on the eps but it's only about 8-10 members. The majority are likely suppressed and the same minority that's breaking down the pattern have a cutter. The eps has a better signal day 15. Lower pressure to our southwest with higher pressure to the north. Too soon to guess which look is right gefs or eps but both lead to a threat just at different times. The gefs looks good through day 10 but then starts to break things down. It's been doing that a lot with both cold and warm periods so I'm not too worried about that.

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My only concern is that the pattern the models are showing comes to fruition. They have advertised decent blocking a few times this year that never really materialized. Recall the Kara ridge block that was the cause for the blizzard wasn't on the long lead ensembles. I guess all we can do is wait to see if this comes. Just nobody be too disappointed if it's another mind fake.

nah mitch no disappointment anymore, look at models i dont believe what they say, rather simple

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264 hrs out, youre worried about suppression??

Good lord man. Your post are really tiring.

Here, let me show you just how bad....I could say to you "264 hours out and you're hoping for snow?"

In your world there'd be no discussion at all. The only worry I have is that I'll have to respond to another one of these posts.

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Good lord man. Your post are really tiring.

Here, let me show you just how bad....I could say to you "264 hours out and you're hoping for snow?"

In your world there'd be no discussion at all. The only worry I have is that I'll have to respond to another one of these posts.

you dont know my world so get off you pedistool, I make a comment and you go off your rails

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12z GFS has a southern slider D9, Carolinas get a Moderate Snow/Ice Event.. Has nowhere to go because it's surrounded by highs. Precip reaches Salisbury, 1.0" QPF Virginia Beach. Major Snowstorm for Central and Northern North Carolina including Charlotte, Raleigh, Elizabeth City. Virginia Beach also gets hit good. Yeah it's bad to look at a run verbatim 9 days out, but hey there isn't much else to do. ****GGEM 6"+ Snow Day 9****

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12z GFS has a southern slider D9, Carolinas get a Moderate Snow/Ice Event.. Has nowhere to go because it's surrounded by highs. Precip reaches Salisbury, 1.0" QPF Virginia Beach. Major Snowstorm for Central and Northern North Carolina including Charlotte, Raleigh, Elizabeth City. Virginia Beach also gets hit good. Yeah it's bad to look at a run verbatim 9 days out, but hey there isn't much else to do.

Just where we like it at this range  :thumbsup:

gfs_asnow_eus_39.png

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Fwiw, the cold coming down at 159 hrs on the gfs is impressive. But we've had more modeled cold than real cold this year.

A little too impressive.  Kills us.  Where are these Highs when we need them?  

 

But, if it's any solace, these things are always modeled way too strong and a bit far south of where they've ended up as of late. 

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Just all coming kinda late. Do have some faith in potential somewhere early to mid Mar but not sure it'll be good enough here. Will keep 2014 in mind but that was such an unusual March of late. We've had a tough time lining up the best cold with storminess this winter.. we'll need to do so ahead in the cities.

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Just all coming kinda late. Do have some faith in potential somewhere early to mid Mar but not sure it'll be good enough here. Will keep 2014 in mind but that was such an unusual March of late. We've had a tough time lining up the best cold with storminess this winter.. we'll need to do so ahead in the cities.

I'm a believer. When good cold lined up with storminess we score big time

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12z GFS has a southern slider D9, Carolinas get a Moderate Snow/Ice Event.. Has nowhere to go because it's surrounded by highs. Precip reaches Salisbury, 1.0" QPF Virginia Beach. Major Snowstorm for Central and Northern North Carolina including Charlotte, Raleigh, Elizabeth City. Virginia Beach also gets hit good. Yeah it's bad to look at a run verbatim 9 days out, but hey there isn't much else to do. ****GGEM 6"+ Snow Day 9****

 

Not to sound pessimistic to the folks down in NC, but that probably ends up north by a couple hundred miles.

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I'm a believer. When good cold lined up with storminess we score big time

Blizzard wasn't all that cold it just happened during the coldest time of year basically. Wouldn't work during the day now. Generally the timing has been off all winter.. blocking will help but in about 10 days we really need a nighttime event in the city unless we get lucky. Last few March have warped our view a bit.

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Blizzard wasn't all that cold it just happened during the coldest time of year basically. Wouldn't work during the day now. Generally the timing has been off all winter.. blocking will help but in about 10 days we really need a nighttime event in the city unless we get lucky. Last few March have warped our view a bit.

We were already warped before 3/14, so no harm has been done.
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