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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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I thought the esemble means +10 days are always fairly low because of the large spread between members. Even with consensus at long leads there's almost always enough variations in each member to have a low mean for a single forecast variable like snow.

Did I get that right?

 

I was mostly ribbing Mitch.

 

D10-15 is always low. Inside of day 10 can show distinct possibilities (or lack there of). There was a notable uptick in storms on the members d7-10 vs 0z. 

 

But we haven't had any continuity. 12z yesterday was good/0z notsomuch/12z today decent. 

 

The short story is you can't cancel or be optimistic for the idea yet. Hopefully by the end of this weekend things look better. 

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I was mostly ribbing Mitch.

 

D10-15 is always low. Inside of day 10 can show distinct possibilities (or lack there of). There was a notable uptick in storms on the members d7-10 vs 0z. 

 

But we haven't had any continuity. 12z yesterday was good/0z notsomuch/12z today decent. 

 

The short story is you can't cancel or be optimistic for the idea yet. Hopefully by the end of this weekend things look better. 

12Z decent thru day 10??? It was in the 1.5" range for I95. That kind of "improvement" ain't getting us anywhere.

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Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you.  

tonights EPS took somewhat of a step back from the 12z runs..........its like Gary Gray 2.0 but its great since it saves me lots of time!

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I was mostly ribbing Mitch.

 

D10-15 is always low. Inside of day 10 can show distinct possibilities (or lack there of). There was a notable uptick in storms on the members d7-10 vs 0z. 

 

But we haven't had any continuity. 12z yesterday was good/0z notsomuch/12z today decent. 

 

The short story is you can't cancel or be optimistic for the idea yet. Hopefully by the end of this weekend things look better.

Got it. Thanks for the write up!

Ensemble forecasting is still kind of new territory for me. I get how to read them for the most part, I just don't quite yet know all the little rules and so forth on how to use them for longer range stuff.

They were talking about it up in the New England forum -- some guidance suggesting a shift out west in the ridge access. Lining up more across the eastern part of the Rockies. I think that's a much better spot if we can that blocking look to show up soon.

Quick question about the blocking -- I think I saw it on the 12z gefs for day 8-10 period or something. Around greenland, those positive heights are more centered on the eastern side, don't we want them on the western side? Thanks

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I'm not looking at much beyond the first couple of waves, with so little resolved at this point.  The GFS and GGEM are now both showing the second wave I wrote about last night.  In the 00z runs, the both models had the second wave run into the first wave and die.  But today's 12z GGEM went back to a weaker, faster first wave which allows the second wave to amplify, giving us this.

 

2IiAMeK.png

 

It's a miss, but not by much. 

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What are the chances we can get the March 3rd storm from the GFS to drop a little further South?  Right now Central NY is the bullseye with 2'+ and we get some wraparound flurries.

Interesting where it was 6 hours ago which is why you can't trust op run. Intriguing though.

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Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you.  

 

Or he may go full on Dickens...it was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...etc.!  (From "A tale of Two Models", of course!)

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We have something of interest at a reasonable range. Damn right I'm back. Win or lose it's time to pay attention...and not freak out every op run...haha

this time of year people tend to get a bit mercurial and it can be entertaining. I think things are coming into slightly better focus finally. We have a threat day 7ish from wave two if the system ejects in peices. Too consolidated and it cuts. After that we seem to have a wave train coming across day 9-15 with enough blocking to make it interesting. Too soon to know if any of these is high probability yet but they are there.
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We have something of interest at a reasonable range. Damn right I'm back. Win or lose it's time to pay attention...and not freak out every op run...haha

 

Certainly the ensembles are enough to track lightly at this point to see what happens.  Ops runs will just go all over the place (as they have), or will show decent looks but too warm (which they also have).  That said, if the ops start to hone in on a real threat in the near future in addition to the ensembles, it could be game on for something.

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Certainly the ensembles are enough to track lightly at this point to see what happens. Ops runs will just go all over the place (as they have), or will show decent looks but too warm (which they also have). That said, if the ops start to hone in on a real threat in the near future in addition to the ensembles, it could be game on for something.

Right now it's a 50/50. We either get blizzarded again or we don't.

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The D5-10 always shows a big snow at least once. That's part of the design

I do not know how some of your pour over every 6 hours. There was a time back 10 years ago where it seemed fascinating and accurate but I learned. There are very very few here anymore that follow the models the way we did when we first started because we learned

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The D5-10 always shows a big snow at least once. That's part of the design

I do not know how some of your pour over every 6 hours. There was a time back 10 years ago where it seemed fascinating and accurate but I learned. There are very very few here anymore that follow the models the way we did when we first started because we learned

Yep. It's explicitly coded right into the models....

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