Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I thought the esemble means +10 days are always fairly low because of the large spread between members. Even with consensus at long leads there's almost always enough variations in each member to have a low mean for a single forecast variable like snow. Did I get that right? I was mostly ribbing Mitch. D10-15 is always low. Inside of day 10 can show distinct possibilities (or lack there of). There was a notable uptick in storms on the members d7-10 vs 0z. But we haven't had any continuity. 12z yesterday was good/0z notsomuch/12z today decent. The short story is you can't cancel or be optimistic for the idea yet. Hopefully by the end of this weekend things look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Now would be a good time for some ignoramus from up north to stop by and teach us about climo, ninos, and snow chances and stufflol good stuff you know it was about to happen until you fired a preemptive strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I was mostly ribbing Mitch. D10-15 is always low. Inside of day 10 can show distinct possibilities (or lack there of). There was a notable uptick in storms on the members d7-10 vs 0z. But we haven't had any continuity. 12z yesterday was good/0z notsomuch/12z today decent. The short story is you can't cancel or be optimistic for the idea yet. Hopefully by the end of this weekend things look better. 12Z decent thru day 10??? It was in the 1.5" range for I95. That kind of "improvement" ain't getting us anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you. tonights EPS took somewhat of a step back from the 12z runs..........its like Gary Gray 2.0 but its great since it saves me lots of time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I was mostly ribbing Mitch. D10-15 is always low. Inside of day 10 can show distinct possibilities (or lack there of). There was a notable uptick in storms on the members d7-10 vs 0z. But we haven't had any continuity. 12z yesterday was good/0z notsomuch/12z today decent. The short story is you can't cancel or be optimistic for the idea yet. Hopefully by the end of this weekend things look better. Got it. Thanks for the write up! Ensemble forecasting is still kind of new territory for me. I get how to read them for the most part, I just don't quite yet know all the little rules and so forth on how to use them for longer range stuff. They were talking about it up in the New England forum -- some guidance suggesting a shift out west in the ridge access. Lining up more across the eastern part of the Rockies. I think that's a much better spot if we can that blocking look to show up soon. Quick question about the blocking -- I think I saw it on the 12z gefs for day 8-10 period or something. Around greenland, those positive heights are more centered on the eastern side, don't we want them on the western side? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'm not looking at much beyond the first couple of waves, with so little resolved at this point. The GFS and GGEM are now both showing the second wave I wrote about last night. In the 00z runs, the both models had the second wave run into the first wave and die. But today's 12z GGEM went back to a weaker, faster first wave which allows the second wave to amplify, giving us this. It's a miss, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you. If the runs are bad I will make it short and sweet. Promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Op 18z does look different from 12z. First wave further south. Not a hit but a different look. Just looked at 150 vs. 156 for comparison. I get myself into trouble when I try to do too much analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What are the chances we can get the March 3rd storm from the GFS to drop a little further South? Right now Central NY is the bullseye with 2'+ and we get some wraparound flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What are the chances we can get the March 3rd storm from the GFS to drop a little further South? Right now Central NY is the bullseye with 2'+ and we get some wraparound flurries. Interesting where it was 6 hours ago which is why you can't trust op run. Intriguing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Interesting where it was 6 hours ago which is why you can't trust op run. Intriguing though. Just waiting patiently for those goddamn ensembles. They tell the real story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you. Or he may go full on Dickens...it was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...etc.! (From "A tale of Two Models", of course!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 18Z GEFS is better than 12Z but still plenty of whiffs 12Z 18Z (#1&3 would be acceptable but I could deal with 5,9,12 & 20 in a pinch if necessary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Quite a few with measurable snow. It's already a win because I thought no measurable until Dec. yippeecayee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 What are the chances we can get the March 3rd storm from the GFS to drop a little further South? Right now Central NY is the bullseye with 2'+ and we get some wraparound flurries. 18z GEFS says the chances are pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Gotta like the trend. Now if the 0z run shows similiar improvement, the Tracker may need to amend his dire predictions. Yeah, I know, it's a big IF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Just waiting patiently for those goddamn ensembles. They tell the real story. gefs now supports the two wave idea. Last two runs went from a low crossing Rochester to across central pa to now across south central va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 18z GEFS says the chances are pretty good He's back lady's and gentlemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 He's back lady's and gentlemen. We have something of interest at a reasonable range. Damn right I'm back. Win or lose it's time to pay attention...and not freak out every op run...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 gefs now supports the two wave idea. Last two runs went from a low crossing Rochester to across central pa to now across south central va. If there is one thing this thread has taught me, it's how to be built up, just to be absolutely torn down... But I'm all in! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 We have something of interest at a reasonable range. Damn right I'm back. Win or lose it's time to pay attention...and not freak out every op run...haha this time of year people tend to get a bit mercurial and it can be entertaining. I think things are coming into slightly better focus finally. We have a threat day 7ish from wave two if the system ejects in peices. Too consolidated and it cuts. After that we seem to have a wave train coming across day 9-15 with enough blocking to make it interesting. Too soon to know if any of these is high probability yet but they are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 If there is one thing this thread has taught me, it's how to be built up, just to be absolutely torn down... But I'm all in! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Maybe by tomorrow we will be worried about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 We have something of interest at a reasonable range. Damn right I'm back. Win or lose it's time to pay attention...and not freak out every op run...haha Certainly the ensembles are enough to track lightly at this point to see what happens. Ops runs will just go all over the place (as they have), or will show decent looks but too warm (which they also have). That said, if the ops start to hone in on a real threat in the near future in addition to the ensembles, it could be game on for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Maybe by tomorrow we will be worried about suppression. And worry about precip and temps and timing and sun angle and asteroids and chocolate bunnies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Certainly the ensembles are enough to track lightly at this point to see what happens. Ops runs will just go all over the place (as they have), or will show decent looks but too warm (which they also have). That said, if the ops start to hone in on a real threat in the near future in addition to the ensembles, it could be game on for something. Right now it's a 50/50. We either get blizzarded again or we don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The D5-10 always shows a big snow at least once. That's part of the design I do not know how some of your pour over every 6 hours. There was a time back 10 years ago where it seemed fascinating and accurate but I learned. There are very very few here anymore that follow the models the way we did when we first started because we learned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Right now it's a 50/50. We either get blizzarded again or we don't. That's a guarantee! We either get a blizzard, or we don't! (ETA: And if not, it's only 284 days until December 5!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 The D5-10 always shows a big snow at least once. That's part of the design I do not know how some of your pour over every 6 hours. There was a time back 10 years ago where it seemed fascinating and accurate but I learned. There are very very few here anymore that follow the models the way we did when we first started because we learned Yep. It's explicitly coded right into the models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you. I will be in when you are....are you in yet? Take your time. Now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 26, 2016 Share Posted February 26, 2016 Yep. It's explicitly coded right into the models.... Well damn then...I'll have to check for a d10 snowstorm sometime in July. Except by then it will be tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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