HighStakes Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 the 2005 date was a few days after two 4-6" snows also.It was also a couple days before that powerful March storm that had rain change to snow. Entire region saw a change to snow but it was particularly good up here where there was 3-6 inches County wide. Westminster got at least 4 if not more and close to 6 where we live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Of course D10 looks good. Pos tilt trough, closed contour over TN, and a 1037 hp nosing down south of Hudson. Good column. Would be a d11 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Wow, HECS forming @ 240 hrs. if only...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 soon enough, day 10 will be dec 5 for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Of course D10 looks good. Pos tilt trough, closed contour over TN, and a 1037 hp nosing down south of Hudson. Good column. Would be a d11 snowstorm. Wow, HECS forming @ 240 hrs. if only...lol only 8 - 10 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 soon enough, day 10 will be dec 5 for you guys Well, that is the ultimate goal! Eventually 10 days out will occur in a good period. I'll check in over Thanksgiving weekend and see how the King looks then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 soon enough, day 10 will be dec 5 for you guys Already looking forward to it! only 8 - 10 days away! It gon snowx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It's the ole 1-2-3 1 is a secs 2 is a mecs 3 is a HECS but it's not in range yet. You just have to take my word for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It's the ole 1-2-3 1 is a secs 2 is a mecs 3 is a HECS but it's not in range yet. You just have to take my word for it. Three March snowstorms within a one week period. Plus the weekend rule. I'm all in! For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 fyi, 12z day 10 is 35 degrees at BWI (as the sun is rising) with the freezing level at 2252' I'm sure the hills would do fine though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 People need to stop celebrating every op run that looks good and declaring winter over every op run that doesn't. The background pattern on the ensembles is good enough we have potential and will see some runs pop something but it will be days before we know if anything is actually likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Raised eyebrow, but stomach gut check says no! I have a codependent relationship with snowy models! But they all set me up and let me down! I am out until it is so compelling that I am in.. and that may be Dec 5th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I see the 12Z Euro Happy Hour just ran. Not a bad look in the longer range for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I know we like to joke about the day 8-10 thing, but this is actually the first decent EURO OP run that offered some hope for early March. I mean common guys we have 1 month left before we got back into hibernation...let's do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 fyi, 12z day 10 is 35 degrees at BWI (as the sun is rising) with the freezing level at 2252' I'm sure the hills would do fine though It'll trend colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 People need to stop celebrating every op run that looks good and declaring winter over every op run that doesn't. The background pattern on the ensembles is good enough we have potential and will see some runs pop something but it will be days before we know if anything is actually likely. My optimism for the overall pattern has severely waned as I have seen it slowly degrade run after run. At some point the bleeding has to stop or we will find we have chased just another ghost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The few, the proud. ...the MAweens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 EPS looks pretty good for a storm @ 168-174 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 EPS looks pretty good for a storm @ 168-174 hrs IF, big if, there is enough energy left behind whatever cuts day 5-6 there could be a chance for something there, but I am most interested in the day 9+ period still. I think enough guidance supports a period where the WAR takes a vacation and we have some decent blocking over the top. Those two things have been whats killing us the last month. Still too far out to get a clear picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 My optimism for the overall pattern has severely waned as I have seen it slowly degrade run after run. At some point the bleeding has to stop or we will find we have chased just another ghost. I don't really see it as bleeding, it seems for days the 12z is good and the 0z is bad. Its just bouncing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Now would be a good time for some ignoramus from up north to stop by and teach us about climo, ninos, and snow chances and stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 ...the MAweens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 EPS Mean Snowfall Mitch should be by shortly to tell us that there was a big jump in mean snowfall through d10 compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 EPS Mean Snowfall Mitch should be by shortly to tell us that there was a big jump in mean snowfall through d10 compared to 0z. nope lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The day 8 look on the EPS is trying to suck me back in. I must not cave to the temptation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The day 8 look on the EPS is trying to suck me back in. I must not cave to the temptation. Tomorrow morning, I guarantee you that you will have a post longer than War and Peace detailing how excruciatingly awful the EPS is. Mark my words and God be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 EPS Mean Snowfall Mitch should be by shortly to tell us that there was a big jump in mean snowfall through d10 compared to 0z. nope lolI thought the esemble means +10 days are always fairly low because of the large spread between members. Even with consensus at long leads there's almost always enough variations in each member to have a low mean for a single forecast variable like snow.Did I get that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 How does this even apply after the three seasons in a row we've had where we've been hit multiple times as modeled in the short range? Lucy pulling the football at the last second happens in...the last second. It's nothing like a long-range threat that we already know won't work out well by 3 or 4 days out. Two busts over three seasons (12/9/13 and it's debateable whether to even count the early Feb event this season as a bust given all the cautious forecasts) does not make a "Lucy always pulling the football at the last second" regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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