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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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the 2005 date was a few days after two 4-6" snows also.

It was also a couple days before that powerful March storm that had rain change to snow. Entire region saw a change to snow but it was particularly good up here where there was 3-6 inches County wide. Westminster got at least 4 if not more and close to 6 where we live.
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People need to stop celebrating every op run that looks good and declaring winter over every op run that doesn't. The background pattern on the ensembles is good enough we have potential and will see some runs pop something but it will be days before we know if anything is actually likely.

My optimism for the overall pattern has severely waned as I have seen it slowly degrade run after run. At some point the bleeding has to stop or we will find we have chased just another ghost. 

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EPS looks pretty good for a storm @ 168-174 hrs

IF, big if, there is enough energy left behind whatever cuts day 5-6 there could be a chance for something there, but I am most interested in the day 9+ period still.  I think enough guidance supports a period where the WAR takes a vacation and we have some decent blocking over the top.  Those two things have been whats killing us the last month.  Still too far out to get a clear picture 

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My optimism for the overall pattern has severely waned as I have seen it slowly degrade run after run. At some point the bleeding has to stop or we will find we have chased just another ghost. 

 

I don't really see it as bleeding, it seems for days the 12z is good and the 0z is bad.  Its just bouncing around.   

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EPS Mean Snowfall Mitch should be by shortly to tell us that there was a big jump in mean snowfall through d10 compared to 0z.

nope lol

I thought the esemble means +10 days are always fairly low because of the large spread between members. Even with consensus at long leads there's almost always enough variations in each member to have a low mean for a single forecast variable like snow.

Did I get that right?

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How does this even apply after the three seasons in a row we've had where we've been hit multiple times as modeled in the short range? Lucy pulling the football at the last second happens in...the last second. It's nothing like a long-range threat that we already know won't work out well by 3 or 4 days out.

Two busts over three seasons (12/9/13 and it's debateable whether to even count the early Feb event this season as a bust given all the cautious forecasts) does not make a "Lucy always pulling the football at the last second" regime.

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