midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The March 3 thing could be another severe challenge now that I looked at it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The few, the proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 you do as you want, for me, its over That's fine, I have no problem with anyone checking out. The pattern the second week of March looks decent enough for me not to throw in the towel yet. Its muddier then I wanted it to look right now, but both the GEFS and EPS still show some snow centered after 3/6 and with enough blocking and stj hanging around to think there is a chance. Its certainly looking worse then I thought it would but its not hopeless yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The few, the proud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Bob got my back... I do totally understand why many are tapping out. It's going to be the second week of March, we have been in a pretty bad pattern for a while, and the signals are pretty muddy, we don't have a high probability event staring us in the face. But at the same time, we do have some things working for us. Almost all of the telleconnections are good. Favorable MJO phase. And I even like the look of the GEFS week 2 if you correct for an error it has been doing all winter in trying to hook the pacific trough into the southwest. Its been doing that in the 10-15 day period all year and it never happens. That trough has stayed anchored south of alaska with a ridge in the southwest. You adjust that "error" and think perhaps that trough ends up in the southeast and its actually a primo pattern. I know that is a stretch but at the same time the pattern were looking at isnt some raging eastern ridge. The EPS is close to something good too. Its flawed enough that I am not as excited as I was, but good enough that I am not closing up shop just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Bob got my back... I do totally understand why many are tapping out. It's going to be the second week of March, we have been in a pretty bad pattern for a while, and the signals are pretty muddy, we don't have a high probability event staring us in the face. But at the same time, we do have some things working for us. Almost all of the telleconnections are good. Favorable MJO phase. And I even like the look of the GEFS week 2 if you correct for an error it has been doing all winter in trying to hook the pacific trough into the southwest. Its been doing that in the 10-15 day period all year and it never happens. That trough has stayed anchored south of alaska with a ridge in the southwest. You adjust that "error" and think perhaps that trough ends up in the southeast and its actually a primo pattern. I know that is a stretch but at the same time the pattern were looking at isnt some raging eastern ridge. The EPS is close to something good too. Its flawed enough that I am not as excited as I was, but good enough that I am not closing up shop just yet. The wave train is relentless. Wavelengths shortening just adds to the chaos. I have no idea if anything is going to work out. I would say for my yard that standard climo will be a pain but it's not like we are hoping for a SE ridge and bermuda high to go away. There is no reason that a shortwave simply "can't" track underneath us at some point during the first 10 days of March. Last night's ens took a step back but it wasn't some huge step. I'm pretty relaxed about the whole thing. If we get a shot, great. If not, oh well. I wouldn't mind more severe or tstorm chances either. Yesterday was pretty fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Bob got my back... I do totally understand why many are tapping out. It's going to be the second week of March, we have been in a pretty bad pattern for a while, and the signals are pretty muddy, we don't have a high probability event staring us in the face. But at the same time, we do have some things working for us. Almost all of the telleconnections are good. Favorable MJO phase. And I even like the look of the GEFS week 2 if you correct for an error it has been doing all winter in trying to hook the pacific trough into the southwest. Its been doing that in the 10-15 day period all year and it never happens. That trough has stayed anchored south of alaska with a ridge in the southwest. You adjust that "error" and think perhaps that trough ends up in the southeast and its actually a primo pattern. I know that is a stretch but at the same time the pattern were looking at isnt some raging eastern ridge. The EPS is close to something good too. Its flawed enough that I am not as excited as I was, but good enough that I am not closing up shop just yet. Psu, you keep on posting that the MJO will be in a favorable phase. Not according to the Euro. A few days ago it was predicted to be in Phase 8 a while, but not any more. By the 2nd week of March, at least per the Euro which has been much better than the GFS, it goes into the COD. The link below is the only link I have to it, but go down near the bottom of the page. The fact that the Euro backed off a decent Phase 8 forecast is one of the reasons I think we're sunk. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Mitch, there are a lot of reasons to think were sunk but the MJO is probably at the bottom of my list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Bob got my back... I do totally understand why many are tapping out. It's going to be the second week of March, we have been in a pretty bad pattern for a while, and the signals are pretty muddy, we don't have a high probability event staring us in the face. But at the same time, we do have some things working for us. Almost all of the telleconnections are good. Favorable MJO phase. And I even like the look of the GEFS week 2 if you correct for an error it has been doing all winter in trying to hook the pacific trough into the southwest. Its been doing that in the 10-15 day period all year and it never happens. That trough has stayed anchored south of alaska with a ridge in the southwest. You adjust that "error" and think perhaps that trough ends up in the southeast and its actually a primo pattern. I know that is a stretch but at the same time the pattern were looking at isnt some raging eastern ridge. The EPS is close to something good too. Its flawed enough that I am not as excited as I was, but good enough that I am not closing up shop just yet. Just took a quick look at the GEFS for that period. Not a bad look, at least briefly. Needle threading, we rock at that. Lets see if that look sticks. Seems the WA ridge does for a time move out and help build a bit of a central/east-based block. I will take a sloppy wet snow if it happens. But I am done tracking long lead chances at this point, as the odds are it bears no fruit. Spring mode for sure now. My weekend will be spent outside doing early Spring yard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The wave train is relentless. Wavelengths shortening just adds to the chaos. I have no idea if anything is going to work out. I would say for my yard that standard climo will be a pain but it's not like we are hoping for a SE ridge and bermuda high to go away. There is no reason that a shortwave simply "can't" track underneath us at some point during the first 10 days of March. Last night's ens took a step back but it wasn't some huge step. I'm pretty relaxed about the whole thing. If we get a shot, great. If not, oh well. I wouldn't mind more severe or tstorm chances either. Yesterday was pretty fun. I wasn't as upset about the minor tick down in snowfall on the EPS because it totally lost the day 7-8 thing that I kinda thought was bogus to begin with. Its now in line with the GEFS on that, but it had an uptick in snow day 10-15 where I think the real threat will be if there is one. GEFS is still hitting that period to with a 2-3" mean across the area. The pattern out towards the end is good to our north and east but both the EPS and GEFS kinda muck up the Pacific. I am not yet sold on that as the PAC side has been so stable for a long time and the models have often tried to break that down and been wrong. If the PNA holds and they are right about the atlantic we might get another run mid month. The down side is we are getting later and later and will run out of time eventually, but I don't hate the look of where we are headed. If this was January or Febuary I would be pretty optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Mitch, there are a lot of reasons to think were sunk but the MJO is probably at the bottom of my list. I agree there are a lot, that's for sure, but Psu keeps saying we will be in a decent Phase (8), but not by recent forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Psu, you keep on posting that the MJO will be in a favorable phase. Not according to the Euro. A few days ago it was predicted to be in Phase 8 a while, but not any more. By the 2nd week of March, at least per the Euro which has been much better than the GFS, it goes into the COD. The link below is the only link I have to it, but go down near the bottom of the page. The fact that the Euro backed off a decent Phase 8 forecast is one of the reasons I think we're sunk. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html UGH damn cache, I looked yesterday but apparently it had not updated. That is significantly different then what I saw, and not good. At least it enters the COD in a decent phase and so there wont be any negative forcing working against us. The other telleconnections do still look good or neutral. Its definitely a step away from the great look we had a week ago. I can't deny that. But its not an awful game over look either. I think it looks worse because its not as good as we thought it might be and its March. The period we are looking at is also still over a week away so like I said before I want to let this come into focus more before making definitive declarations about the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I agree there are a lot, that's for sure, but Psu keeps saying we will be in a decent Phase (8), but not by recent forecasts. D11+ analogs actually look pretty good. Snow events in Baltimore for the top 3 and even the Feb 70 was a winter event (snow and ice). Not sure about the 1958 date. Records are spotty. You may have better data for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 D11+ analogs actually look pretty good. Snow events in Baltimore for the top 3 and even the Feb 70 was a winter event (snow and ice). Not sure about the 1958 date. Records are spotty. You may have better data for that one. Meh, that product rarely means a darn thing if they are not similar ENSO states. So you can be sure the bottom 2 have a much greater chance to verify than the top 2 with these SSTA's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 D11+ analogs actually look pretty good. Snow events in Baltimore for the top 3 and even the Feb 70 was a winter event (snow and ice). Not sure about the 1958 date. Records are spotty. You may have better data for that one. That 1958 date is a few days after an HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 D11+ analogs actually look pretty good. Snow events in Baltimore for the top 3 and even the Feb 70 was a winter event (snow and ice). Not sure about the 1958 date. Records are spotty. You may have better data for that one. the 2005 date was a few days after two 4-6" snows also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I haven't totally given up. Was on the Mar 5-15 train weeks ago. But.... I'm pretty much done tracking unless there's something real. Which there isn't at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Good luck guys, we're all counting on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I haven't totally given up. Was on the Mar 5-15 train weeks ago. But.... I'm pretty much done tracking unless there's something real. Which there isn't at the moment. I'm not paying that much attention either. I've been going to bed before the gfs op runs and spend about 10 minutes total in the morning with a cup of coffee looking at the overnight runs. If something real gets into a reasonable range I'll probably stay up for the gfs at least. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 gfs has both the 3/6-7 and 3/10 events on the table. Looks like the western atl ridging calms down a bit. Am I seeing some blocking up in greeny land towards end of run? Wonder if our PNA holds for another couple weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 gfs has both the 3/6-7 and 3/10 events on the table. Looks like the western atl ridging calms down a bit. Am I seeing some blocking up in greeny land towards end of run? Wonder if our PNA holds for another couple weeks... That period does look somewhat promising. Be interesting to see what the GEFS look like later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Back in...well not really. Too bad we couldn't have gotten a look something like this on Feb 12 instead of Mar 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 MAJOR differences on the 12z EURO. There is a follow up wave (like I mentioned this AM) forming @ 156 hours, let's see if it has enough juice to produce something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 MAJOR differences on the 12z EURO. There is a follow up wave (like I mentioned this AM) forming @ 156 hours, let's see if it has enough juice to produce something you used all caps for major. I am back in. doesn't take much for this weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 @ 162 hours the rainstorm has brought some moderate cold air behind it. HP forming over the Lakes between the 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Yep the differences in the pattern between the 00z/12z run are huge. There is a potent shortwave near Missouri @ 168 hours. Question will be will the cold air hold when it heads East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 you used all caps for major. I am back in. doesn't take much for this weenie Don't do it. Euro had us getting pummeled this upcoming Tuesday-Wed. Remember that. Yep the differences in the pattern between the 00z/12z run are huge. There is a potent shortwave near Missouri @ 168 hours. Question will be will the cold air hold when it heads East. I can already answer that question without seeing the run. Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Don't do it. Euro had us getting pummeled this upcoming Tuesday-Wed. Remember that. I can already answer that question without seeing the run. Nope. thank you. I lost my head for a minute. I'm out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Don't do it. Euro had us getting pummeled this upcoming Tuesday-Wed. Remember that. I can already answer that question without seeing the run. Nope. It's wimpy and doesn't do much except maybe some mood flakes but it does track below us. It has to start there no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 It's wimpy and doesn't do much except maybe some mood flakes but it does track below us. It has to start there no matter what. sorta sets up something possible for next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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