Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Oops, better picture of it. EPS next Friday. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Oops, better picture of it. EPS next Friday. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Wonder if the GEFS looks similar. The op was slightly west....of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 18z gefs just doubled the # of members with 2" or more in the cities vs 12z. About half now. heh am not sure the models have resolved which wave to key on. Some focus on the lead wave others the trailer. I also like that stj low coming out of the southwest the week after. That might even be the best shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 am not sure the models have resolved which wave to key on. Some focus on the lead wave others the trailer. I also like that stj low coming out of the southwest the week after. That might even be the best shot. It's mixed for sure with timing and which wave. I'm just keeping it simple and looking at gross potential increasing at we move through time. Hopefully we have something specific to track with real potential on the table within a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Trying...not...to...get...sucked...back...in... Dammit! Oh well, since I have low expectations from here on out now, no harm in lightly following things until/if a realistic threat actually shows up. It is interesting that the ensembles are showing possibly better chances, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 After a closer look the gefs is keying more on the d10 - 13 period and the eps is d8-10. I'm going to just go with a blend...a mecs followed by a hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 After a closer look the gefs is keying more on the d10 - 13 period and the eps is d8-10. I'm going to just go with a blend...a mecs followed by a hecs. That sounds reasonable. At least 1 of them should hit so win regardless. This is easier than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The gefs are better but they are keying on the day 12 threat. They are focusing on the lead wave day 7-10 so they cut it west of us then the boundary is shot fur the next. The eps eject a weaker wave then go nuts with the trailing wave. They have very different evolutions and results on the day 8 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 After a closer look the gefs is keying more on the d10 - 13 period and the eps is d8-10. I'm going to just go with a blend...a mecs followed by a hecs. I am almost certain t there's more snow coming for I95 in March. Whether the mid Atlantic gets screwed or not is a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 The gefs are better but they are keying on the day 12 threat. The are focusing on the lead wave day 7-10 so they cut it west of us then the boundary is shot fur the next. The eps eject a weaker wave then go nuts with the trailing wave. They have very different evolutions and results on the day 8 threat. So the 7-10 dat threat is rain on the GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 So the 7-10 dat threat is rain on the GEFS? yea gefs supports the op idea of a more consolidated system that cuts. Then it develops a storm behind it day 12. Eps ejects the day 7 system in peices and brings the second peice up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 yea gefs supports the op idea of a more consolidated system that cuts. Then it develops a storm behind it day 12. Eps ejects the day 7 system in peices and brings the second peice up the coast. The GGEM has had a second wave that isn't on the GFS, shown off the Pacific NW coast below: In the last couple of runs it has done interesting things with that wave. Last night the second wave amplfied into the main event, which gave the Baltimore area a couple of inches of snow before changing to rain. Today the GGEM amplfied the first wave, and the second wave spun up a coastal off the east coast of Florida that went out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looking over the 00Z EPS and it has taken a step back. The overall look on the 500's have degraded somewhat. Doesn't mean too much because there are lows scattered all over the place but the mean surface low track has shifted slightly west to where it is running through the area. First time I really looked at the individual ensembles so maybe it has been there the whole time but what I see is troubling. There are several different solutions but by far the most predominate feature with these solutions involves something running to our northwest or even through the lakes. There are very few solutions that would work and they basically involve something running up from the southwest a little later in the period. Snowfall maps reflect this with a substantial reduction for that time period to a mean of 1/2 inch for the 95 corridor and only a handful bring meaningful snow to the region. The only positive I can find is that it is a very unsettled look and with 6-7+ days much can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Good. Now we have a shot at something sneaking up on us late next week since it doesn't show anything now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Going just by the 00Z model runs in the longer range would lead me to believe that if we don't score within the next 12-13 days we can probably call it quits till next year. General theme is that the PV rotates up into northern Canada and with the pattern being suggested the cold air would for the most part get locked there except for some possible intrusions into the northern tier especially the lakes and east. At this range the signals are smoothed out and much can change so there is that, but at this point they have all of the CONUS in a very zonal flow and I really see no mechanism to pull the cold we would need down to our region. I will say the GFS delays the TOD a few days longer but it still reaches the same solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looking over the 00Z EPS and it has taken a step back. The overall look on the 500's have degraded somewhat. Doesn't mean too much because there are lows scattered all over the place but the mean surface low track has shifted slightly west to where it is running through the area. First time I really looked at the individual ensembles so maybe it has been there the whole time but what I see is troubling. There are several different solutions but by far the most predominate feature with these solutions involves something running to our northwest or even through the lakes. There are very few solutions that would work and they basically involve something running up from the southwest a little later in the period. Snowfall maps reflect this with a substantial reduction for that time period to a mean of 1/2 inch for the 95 corridor and only a handful bring meaningful snow to the region. The only positive I can find is that it is a very unsettled look and with 6-7+ days much can change. I will take your word for it lol. I have not looked at ensembles since yesterday morning. but there has been no positive trend away from the bad progression through next week, and I dont really expect it at this point. Once the guidance moved away from the original idea, its been pretty much rock steady on everything tracking inland/west through next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Good. Now we have a shot at something sneaking up on us late next week since it doesn't show anything now. I had hopes for the period ahead but my optimism is rapidly waning. I expected to see some improvements across the board tonight and instead for the most part everything stepped back. Still we are talking mid to long range so things can change but as we are getting better clarity as the time frame shortens I do not see much to lead me to believe this will end well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 I will take your word for it lol. I have not looked at ensembles since yesterday morning. but there has been no positive trend away from the bad progression through next week, and I dont really expect it at this point. Once the guidance moved away from the original idea, its been pretty much rock steady on everything tracking inland/west through next Friday. 12Z suite actually showed improvement. But for the most part it has been one step forward and two back which won't get it done. I will wait to see how our next threat pans out and how we are set up for the period after but I have a strong suspicion I will be calling it quits for this season within the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 You poor poor boys. I'll be here for you, I swear. 18z will show sh*t. 0z will show some hope. Then we'll wake up to a novel from showmethesnow on how terrible the ensembles, operationals, and your favorite restaurant are. Take the cyanide capsule and bite down. It'll all be over quick. you certainly nailed this one. I had to laugh before crying when I checked in this morning remembering this post. you are wise man and I shall follow your lead from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 You poor poor boys. I'll be here for you, I swear. 18z will show sh*t. 0z will show some hope. Then we'll wake up to a novel from showmethesnow on how terrible the ensembles, operationals, and your favorite restaurant are. Take the cyanide capsule and bite down. It'll all be over quick. I take offense to this. I never, ever disparaged anyone's restaurant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Your looking at the wrong storm. The March 2-3 thing is going to cut. The war is still there. It's that system that finally pushes the war out and it's the week after that the eps has some snow signal and the gefs has one yesterday, haven't looked at last nights. The eps was splitting the March 2-3 system and bringing the second peice up but last night it fell in line with the gfs in putting enough energy into the lead wave to allow it to cut. That threat is just about dead. After is not showing the signal I want yet either. Both the gefs and eps have a good look north and east of us finally but then we lose the Pna so the stj cuts under ridging across the central us. It's like we're so close but one thing has to be wrong. It was a bad night of runs after a good day yesterday. I'll give it a few more runs before turning out the lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looking at the EPS & 6z GFS ensembles there is certainly a signal for something around the 6th-7th. It seems that the rainstorm on the 3rd could give us a window of opportunity as it brings in cold air....Would need to time things correctly of course, but I believe this is our last legit shot at anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Your looking at the wrong storm. The March 2-3 thing is going to cut. The war is still there. It's that system that finally pushes the war out and it's the week after that the eps has some snow signal and the gefs has one yesterday, haven't looked at last nights. The eps was splitting the March 2-3 system and bringing the second peice up but last night it fell in line with the gfs in putting enough energy into the lead wave to allow it to cut. That threat is just about dead. After is not showing the signal I want yet either. Both the gefs and eps have a good look north and east of us finally but then we lose the Pna so the stj cuts under ridging across the central us. It's like we're so close but one thing has to be wrong. It was a bad night of runs after a good day yesterday. I'll give it a few more runs before turning out the lights. Yep, anyone placing hope in the 3/3-4 system is wishcasting. However, PSU, take a look at some of the individual GFS ensembles for the 6th-7th. Also look at last night's 00z GFS for that timeframe. As crazy as it seems, we actually want to root for the March 3rd storm to be as strong as possible (cut as much as possible) that way it can give us a big transient cold shot for any follow up wave. Something to keep an eye on as the week progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 by 06z gfs winter is over, just accept the fact and enjoy spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 by 06z gfs winter is over, just accept the fact and enjoy spring good advice. we reached snow climo and got to track and kill a major storm. I am now wishing I would have taken that week off work and tracked every second of every day. sure the wife would have approved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 by 06z gfs winter is over, just accept the fact and enjoy springWhile it doesn't look good right now, I don't think I'm ready to change my forecast methodology to "just accept the 6z op gfs as fact" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 While it doesn't look good right now, I don't think I'm ready to change my forecast methodology to "just accept the 6z op gfs as fact" you do as you want, for me, its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 you do as you want, for me, its over Whatever makes you sleep better @ night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Whatever makes you sleep better @ night i sleep fine bud, you on the other hand??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Instead of snow in the long term, how is the severe threat looking. Yesterday was epic. I do not wish severe on anyone and I am very upset by what happened to people! But it was adrenaline pumping to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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