Ji Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The general pattern look on the long range GFS and Euro has the potential if we can get that STJ system to track right. Split flow, -EPO, -NAO pattern. Cold is going to be hard to come by in March, yes, but get one of those lows to amplify to sub 990 and track just southeast of us and see what happens. Keep in mind the euro and some other stuff had a similar look to this 10-15 days before snowzilla, that cut off warm look. This isnt as far from a hit as you think. Its not perfect but its a pattern we can hope to get lucky in. welcome back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 After a couple days of bleeding the wrong way today has been a trend in the right direction. It's not a perfect pattern, and its probably not a particularly cold pattern, but get an active STJ cutting under the western ridge and finally some blocking in a good spot and I don't think its fair to say that can't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 welcome back im a weather junkie, it doesn't take much maybe we can tag team this into a win. If we get some good runs maybe Bob will join the team. Get something real inside 7 days and maybe Randy gets on board and the 4 horsemen can bring home the second coming of the snowpocolypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 welcome back 12z gefs bumped in the right direction too. But I'm still out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z gefs bumped in the right direction too. But I'm still out. See you at happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It looks like one of the GEFS members gives DC about 2' of snow over a 48+ hour period starting March 3. That might be the best digital snow we see until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 12z gefs bumped in the right direction too. But I'm still out. They are troopers. In all seriousness, I look up to Winterwxlvr and psu...eternal optimists...I wish I had their disposition. In 6 hours, the step forward will take two steps back. It's been that way for what, the last week or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 They are troopers. In all seriousness, I look up to Winterwxlvr and psu...eternal optimists...I wish I had their disposition. In 6 hours, the step forward will take two steps back. It's been that way for what, the last week or two? LOL- euro ensembles MUCH better...couple bombs in there for the d8-10 thing. Right down the rabbit hole we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any of these 3 solutions would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Heh, I really am getting sucked back in. EPS MSLP and low location plots look pretty promising considering the range. Seems that a SE track is favored and mean 850's are a lot colder than the op as well. HR 192 has the 0c line out near I81 and hr204 is se of the cities. Give me a couple runs in a row like this and I'm all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Heh, I really am getting sucked back in. EPS MSLP and low location plots look pretty promising considering the range. Seems that a SE track is favored and mean 850's are a lot colder than the op as well. HR 192 has the 0c line out near I81 and hr204 is se of the cities. Give me a couple runs in a row like this and I'm all in. welcome on board. Ji has your uniform. Now if we can get Randy we can bring it home. In seriousness today was a good first step. There was a reason I said wait till Friday. Models usually rush pattern changes, the mjo is just getting into the good phases, and that WAR was going to take a but to break down. The models are just coming into range of seeing things. Now they could get a look in the next few days and find the WAR is going to stick around and go to crap but I want to see what things look like in a couple days. The pattern I see on the guidance today is far from game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Heh, I really am getting sucked back in. EPS MSLP and low location plots look pretty promising considering the range. Seems that a SE track is favored and mean 850's are a lot colder than the op as well. HR 192 has the 0c line out near I81 and hr204 is se of the cities. Give me a couple runs in a row like this and I'm all in. The look has definitely improved over the last few runs. 500's are coming in with a sharper trough that's digging even deeper. And have to love the stronger signal with the low and the track it would tack. Of course we have been down this road before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 It looks like one of the GEFS members gives DC about 2' of snow over a 48+ hour period starting March 3. That might be the best digital snow we see until next winter. it only looked like 20" in DC to me but I suppose that would be a acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I mean Feb 24th...even the most pessimistic weenie, perhaps me, would say too early to call it over. I know it's been a crap show but the teleconnections....nevermind. Just gonna pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 welcome on board. Ji has your uniform. Now if we can get Randy we can bring it home. In seriousness today was a good first step. There was a reason I said wait till Friday. Models usually rush pattern changes, the mjo is just getting into the good phases, and that WAR was going to take a but to break down. The models are just coming into range of seeing things. Now they could get a look in the next few days and find the WAR is going to stick around and go to crap but I want to see what things look like in a couple days. The pattern I see on the guidance today is far from game over. You poor poor boys. I'll be here for you, I swear. 18z will show sh*t. 0z will show some hope. Then we'll wake up to a novel from showmethesnow on how terrible the ensembles, operationals, and your favorite restaurant are. Take the cyanide capsule and bite down. It'll all be over quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Over half of the members, 28?, still show very little to no snow for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 They are troopers. In all seriousness, I look up to Winterwxlvr and psu...eternal optimists...I wish I had their disposition. In 6 hours, the step forward will take two steps back. It's been that way for what, the last week or two? every bad stretch ends with a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Any of these 3 solutions would be acceptable #8isgreat.JPG #31looksfun.JPG #sweet16.JPG for what date?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 for what date?? I think 3 March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Para GFS anyone? Once again looks like rain to decent snow to my untrained eye (hrs 201-207), but could be the disconnect between the current 850 line and when the precip actually falls. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 You poor poor boys. I'll be here for you, I swear. 18z will show sh*t. 0z will show some hope. Then we'll wake up to a novel from showmethesnow on how terrible the ensembles, operationals, and your favorite restaurant are. Take the cyanide capsule and bite down. It'll all be over quick. lol. We may not get anymore snow this year and if not I'll move on and enjoy the warm weather. But the chase is half the fun so why tap out until we're sure it's over. I know some are tired of the chase this year and that's fine. When I see enough evidence that it's really over I'll call time of death and find other things to distract myself with. Until then I will enjoy the tracking and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Over half of the members, 28?, still show very little to no snow for that period.I was wondering about that end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I was wondering about that end of the spectrum. of course you were. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 of course you were. Lol.Well, the mean is still only 2.5" so considering the 3 that Bob posted, I knew there had to be many with essentially nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I was wondering about that end of the spectrum. Overall look for that period looked better with a mean of 2-3 inches for 95 corridor. Still a ways to go though. Still showing very little after the day 9 event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I was wondering about that end of the spectrum. Half showing something d8+ is actually a pretty big signal. And a nice cluster of coastals as well. We now have a signal and a baseline with the 12z ens run. Just need to hold and improve. Could be a head fake or could be the beginning of clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Half showing something d8+ is actually a pretty big signal. And a nice cluster of coastals as well. We now have a signal and a baseline with the 12z ens run. Just need to hold and improve. Could be a head fake or could be the beginning of clarity. And that's really what it comes down to, is this the start of a positive trend or noise. More waiting...great! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 The 18z op run is so far removed from anything good next week. Hard to believe the ens are so different. Not even a shred of close to anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Heh, I really am getting sucked back in. EPS MSLP and low location plots look pretty promising considering the range. Seems that a SE track is favored and mean 850's are a lot colder than the op as well. HR 192 has the 0c line out near I81 and hr204 is se of the cities. Give me a couple runs in a row like this and I'm all in. I am having a serious Deja Vu moment! I have heard this same thing,.. like a week ago! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I am having a serious Deja Vu moment! I have heard this same thing,.. like a week ago! LOL! 18z gefs just doubled the # of members with 2" or more in the cities vs 12z. About half now. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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