mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 we have to hope for that, neutral or very weak nina's after a strong nino have some decent winters, Nina's following strong nino's are a disaster. Next year will be easy to predict a fail if were starting at a nina in the fall. It becomes more variable if there is a neutral ENSO signal. A -QBO with a weak sun is near guaranteed so maybe we can get some real blocking to last through the winter. That and a neutral ENSO might be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 my favorite JB quote of the year from yesterday! cant do any better at hitting the upper pattern, However I think the west wind warm shots have cost us dearly in the temp forecast. But with the blocking coming for March I think we have the chance to make the most of the cold air. JB finally admitted defeat yesterday with his Feb. forecast, but he still feels convinced of a cold March. He's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 A -QBO with a weak sun is near guaranteed so maybe we can get some real blocking to last through the winter. That and a neutral ENSO might be fun. Should we start the 16-17 winter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Should we start the 16-17 winter thread? I wondered the same thing after I posted it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 we have to hope for that, neutral or very weak nina's after a strong nino have some decent winters, Nina's following strong nino's are a disaster. Next year will be easy to predict a fail if were starting at a nina in the fall. It becomes more variable if there is a neutral ENSO signal. Agreed completely. The strength of this Nino might go a long way to helping us in the hangover department next year. I'm going to go on record and say that December 2016 will be rockin'! Dare we look forward to a White Christmas? I have to say that I'm pretty surprised at how things are beginning to shape up for the next couple weeks. I fully expected us to be in a situation where we had a couple real shots at something late in the season, and I also expected there to be some legitimate cold available. Without that cold around, we're in no shape to be confident of anything. Of course that can change, but I'm not holding my breath at this point. It's a little bit of a bummer, but I'm not huge into backloaded winters, so I'll be ready to really think spring in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Should we start the 16-17 winter thread? I guarantee you Ji is already typing it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I'm out until something shows up at a reasonable range. It's pretty futile tracking long shots this late in the game. Like I said earlier, if something shows up inside of 8 days that has legs I'll go into laser mode. There's really nothing promising on the horizon for the next 7-10 days imho. Unless you are in Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 even though this winter sucked...i would still take a good El Nino over anything else. Maybe we should appreciate our 3-4 inch snow to ice storm alot more than we did! Should I appreciate it since it was a 1.5" snow to ice storm here as much as you should appreciate it? Just joking, but I'm not on this..............when the rate the winter thread comes out, it isn't going to be pretty. I don't know exactly what the prior 3 winters were, but I'd take them 10-1 over this "super Nino". This winter blows IMO. BTW, my opinion is the only one I can give you. Others may feel different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 my favorite JB quote of the year from yesterday! cant do any better at hitting the upper pattern, However I think the west wind warm shots have cost us dearly in the temp forecast. But with the blocking coming for March I think we have the chance to make the most of the cold air. Have to roll your eyes at that one. Since we all live at the surface, the forecast is for what happens on the ground. Now hitting the H5 pattern is a step in the process to getting a forecast right, but its not the same as getting it right. That would be like a coach saying well a few of our players executed correctly so it doesn't matter that our QB fell down and fumbled the ball the play was a success. At the end of the day his snowfall forecast looks like a fail everywhere outside the impact of that one storm. His temperature forecast was a total and complete disaster everywhere. In short a bust. Nothing wrong with that, everyone that makes forecasts, especially long range ones, is going to be wrong a lot, but denying it and trying to spin the truth or change what you said, is annoying. Just admit it, or better yet let the forecast stand for itself and move on. Look at HM and some of the other long range forecasters. They don't spend half their time whining about why their forecast should have verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I know it wont happen that way but what type of setup is being shown in GFS 12Z and 6Z for 3-4 March. I see it starts to cut and blow up but what looks like wrap around continues after 850s crash. Do we have a precedent for that type set up? what kind of set up is that?. I have to imagine at least hrs 216-222 are wintry precip. just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 JB finally admitted defeat yesterday with his Feb. forecast, but he still feels convinced of a cold March. He's nuts. He isn't nuts he is making money. If he admits now that its over for the northeast urban corridor where most of his paying snow weenie customers live, a good deal of them probably cancel their subscriptions immediately until next fall. If he spins and hints and gets them to hang on for another 20 days that's another month payment he sucks out of them all. Why not just hope that a fluke happens, not impossible given the pattern coming, and collect the cash. He can always spin his way out of it anyways so its not like he damages his reputation anymore then it already is. Think about this one, we all know that when he calls for snow, he will hang on way too long once things take a turn for the worse and go down with the ship. But when he has a forecast that doesn't include snow, and the models suddenly pick up on something he didn't see, how fast does he flip his forecast. He is usually all over twitter before the run is even done coming out. He knows what pays his bills and its not making accurate quality and reasonable forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I wondered the same thing after I posted it. lol why not, I get the storm thread thing due to the superstition plus just cluttering up the forum, but a thread for the next winter seems harmless. If people think its too soon they dont have to read or post in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 why not, I get the storm thread thing due to the superstition plus just cluttering up the forum, but a thread for the next winter seems harmless. If people think its too soon they dont have to read or post in it. I'm actually surprised we don't have one already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Agreed completely. The strength of this Nino might go a long way to helping us in the hangover department next year. I'm going to go on record and say that December 2016 will be rockin'! Dare we look forward to a White Christmas? I have to say that I'm pretty surprised at how things are beginning to shape up for the next couple weeks. I fully expected us to be in a situation where we had a couple real shots at something late in the season, and I also expected there to be some legitimate cold available. Without that cold around, we're in no shape to be confident of anything. Of course that can change, but I'm not holding my breath at this point. It's a little bit of a bummer, but I'm not huge into backloaded winters, so I'll be ready to really think spring in a couple weeks. In a couple of weeks it will be spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I know it wont happen that way but what type of setup is being shown in GFS 12Z and 6Z for 3-4 March. I see it starts to cut and blow up but what looks like wrap around continues after 850s crash. Do we have a precedent for that type set up? what kind of set up is that?. I have to imagine at least hrs 216-222 are wintry precip. just curious With the closed ULL and SLP to our NW there is nothing to consider honestly. Cold chasing precip rarely works and being on the southeast side of things is the worst place to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I know it wont happen that way but what type of setup is being shown in GFS 12Z and 6Z for 3-4 March. I see it starts to cut and blow up but what looks like wrap around continues after 850s crash. Do we have a precedent for that type set up? what kind of set up is that?. I have to imagine at least hrs 216-222 are wintry precip. just curious there is no precip after the cold, so not sure what your looking at. Remember the precip is for the previous 12 hours and the temp is current so by the time the 850's crash its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 With the closed ULL and SLP to our NW there is nothing to consider honestly. Cold chasing precip rarely works and being on the southeast side of things is the worst place to be. there is no precip after the cold, so not sure what your looking at. Remember the precip is for the previous 12 hours and the temp is current so by the time the 850's crash its over. roger. good to know. thank u. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 In a couple of weeks it will be spring OK...I probably should have worded that differently. In a couple weeks (or probably more like another week), I'm turning all attention to spring and none on winter weather. I love spring as it is, and I'm already in garden-planting mode, so mine eyes have already been turned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 OK...I probably should have worded that differently. In a couple weeks (or probably more like another week), I'm turning all attention to spring and none on winter weather. I love spring as it is, and I'm already in garden-planting mode, so mine eyes have already been turned. I was just ribbing you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 ok, yea I know its like fantasy unicorn range and we have to see this show up on the ensembles and multiple runs, BUT....this is close to something really good. Great pattern just need that cut off STJ system to not dig so far south and we are cooking. There is enough hint in the ensembles to think some of the members are showing a similar pattern to this. My guess is there is still a fight going on but if we start to see this look win out in the next few days it might not be winterfork time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 ok, yea I know its like fantasy unicorn range and we have to see this show up on the ensembles and multiple runs, BUT....this is close to something really good. Great pattern just need that cut off STJ system to not dig so far south and we are cooking. There is enough hint in the ensembles to think some of the members are showing a similar pattern to this. My guess is there is still a fight going on but if we start to see this look win out in the next few days it might not be winterfork time yet. thiscouldwork.png again, way too warm....look at those heights over us maybe in a different winter, but not this one on the 9th or 10th of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 again, way too warm....look at those heights over us maybe in a different winter, but not this one on the 9th or 10th of March It's too warm because the STJ system stays disconnected and cut off to our south. For that to work we would need that not to cut off down there. Get that storm to track just to our south and it would work. At the very end of the run it actually does eventually pull enough cold in to get some pity flakes in here even without a great track and cut off from the northern branch. As it is its a close miss but that is very close to exactly what we want. I know you want some -20 arctic air mass in here and a nice simple overrunning thing but that's not in the cards. What we could do is get a nice STJ system to run across to our south and amplify in just the right spot in a pattern like that. Like i said it will be warm before and after but could be just cold enough if the storm tracks right. The GEFS is similar enough at that range to the op to think there are several runs in there hinting at the possibility. Its a long shot but its better then a crap pattern with no shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 interesting look day 9 on the euro ....if it wasn't for the warmth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 interesting look day 9 on the euro ....if it wasn't for the warmth lol Wonder how many times that has been said this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 cruel joke on day 10 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 Looks about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2016 Author Share Posted February 24, 2016 cruel joke on day 10 lol That one is gonna trend our way. Pattern is better, plus there's always the notion that this sh*t luck we've had can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 cruel joke on day 10 lol surface temps are cold enough and there is a high. It can only trend colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 interesting look day 9 on the euro ....if it wasn't for the warmth lol The general pattern look on the long range GFS and Euro has the potential if we can get that STJ system to track right. Split flow, -EPO, -NAO pattern. Cold is going to be hard to come by in March, yes, but get one of those lows to amplify to sub 990 and track just southeast of us and see what happens. Keep in mind the euro and some other stuff had a similar look to this 10-15 days before snowzilla, that cut off warm look. This isnt as far from a hit as you think. Its not perfect but its a pattern we can hope to get lucky in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 That one is gonna trend our way. Pattern is better, plus there's always the notion that this sh*t luck we've had can't last forever. surface temps are cold enough and there is a high. It can only trend colder looking at the 700mb rh, it probably never makes it north it's a southern stream system cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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