Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

[Wonderdog]

While I know what you mean, our "best shot this winter" was actually the blizzard in January, of course.  And the time leading up to it.  Frustrating trends the past several days, to say the least.  At the beginning of the month I thought for sure we'd get a couple of area-wide moderate events through early March to round out the season.  The signals pointed that way, but it's just not panning out.

 

I'd still give this winter (assuming we're done) a B/B- overall, though some may say that's generous.  The blizzard of course is a large part of that, but we did have a couple of periods with solid cold...during the week leading up to the blizzard, and the week around Presidents' Day.  Given what we endured with the December torch, a very strong/record Nino, and overall not great expectations going into the season, I'd say we didn't do half badly, in fact a bit better than that.  Keep in mind too, that compared to a lot of areas (at least along the East Coast), we really lucked out with that very blizzard.  It was...so far...the one big storm of the year and we were the ones who were fortunate enough to cash in.  That doesn't happen very often.

 

On a final note, I'd say this wasn't completely a true "one hit wonder" winter, but more like a "one and a half hit wonder".  The half hit being the event that some got around Feb. 9 (though I only got 0.2" of white rain from it here), combined with the Presidents' Day snow and ice that affected a larger area.

 

I'm probably about to call it quits for the winter, other than checking the discussion and models now and then.  While I probably won't be following very much too closely unless something real shows up, I'll continue holding out a little hope that we get one last bit of a "surprise" in March all the same.

I agree. It's always darkest before the dawn right? We may get lucky in March as you said and if we do it will probably sneak up on us.

[mitchnick]

things look bad now but what I envisioned wasn't getting some Arctic airmass to settle into the northeast anyways. I was thinking a split flow pattern with epo and nao blocking and a raging stj. Get several storms to track to our south and hope one bombs enough to get it done. The kind of pattern where it's 45-50 the day before and after a snowstorm.

Well, there's nothing I've seen to suggest any sort of a -nao needed to support a snowstorm in these parts in March, hence my skepticism.

[clskinsfan]

The writing is on the wall with just about all of the medium/long range guidance at this point. It's over Johnny.

[Wonderdog]

The writing is on the wall with just about all of the medium/long range guidance at this point. It's over Johnny.

Here is another bad sign. I just passed an 18 wheeler on 66 carrying mulch.

[WinterWxLuvr]

My enthusiasm was based on getting some arctic air in here late in the weekend into next week with the vortex rotating down, some blocking to its north, and getting an overrunning event and perhaps a decent low to track underneath. That has completely disappeared. The persistence of the pattern this winter is going to work strongly against getting any cold in here as we move towards mid month, and Spring. I really doubt, despite an overall okay look to the advertised pattern beyond day 10, that it produces. Have not seen it but one time this entire winter, and that was in peak climo for cold and snow. We got lucky on that one.

Exactly, and it disappeared in about 18 hours worth of model runs.

 

When that went, it took every ounce of enthusiasm that I had with it.

[BristowWx]

Here is another bad sign. I just passed an 18 wheeler on 66 carrying mulch.

Its Feb 24th and the models have been less than accurate beyond 5 days....its not over just yet.  No matter what anyone says if you are on this board you are "all in" until April.  

[North Balti Zen]

Its Feb 24th and the models have been less than accurate beyond 5 days....its not over just yet.  No matter what anyone says if you are on this board you are "all in" until April.  

 

Hell. No.

 

In all seriousness, in no way shape or form am I "all in" for 41 degrees and mangled flakes on March 20th while somewhere far north and west gets maybe an inch or two. That is crap weather for that part of the calendar. I am "all in" for looking for 65 degree days by that time.

 

This isn't Vermont.

[osfan24]

Winter is over.....until the midday runs show another great look at Day 10.

[Ji]

the march 1958 blizzard wasnt till March 20th? the 93 blizzard was on March 13th. Plenty of time to get 20-40 more inches

[psuhoffman]

Well, there's nothing I've seen to suggest any sort of a -nao needed to support a snowstorm in these parts in March, hence my skepticism.

The last few runs there isn't.  Before that there was a good signal that the WAR would relax and shift up into the NAO domain.  That is backing off.  If that is correct then the pattern is a lot less supportive of snow chances.  I said Friday and that is what I am sticking to for calling it.  There are enough good things about the pattern on the pacific side and to our north that its not a hopeless situation, but that WAR is just really spitting in our eye right now.  That said, if the WAR does persist, and I am willing to admit that is looking more likely now, the coming pattern March 5-20 doesn't look hopeless, but certainly low probability.  There are a few ways to get a pattern such as that to work out but they all require some luck, and i know we don't do flawed setups well here.  Anything that starts to develop once to the east of the trough axis will cut north hard with that WAR so the key is to get something to dig into the southeast before that happens.  With shorter wavelengths in March that is more likely then before but still a long shot.  One way would be to get a system to eject in pieces with a lead wave driving the boundary into the southeast then a second wave to develop and cut up the coast.  Another way to get it done would be several weaker waves to time up under a pressing high.  The other way would be simply luck and get something to dig into the east behind a cutter with just the right timing.  All of these require luck.  Its not the setup where we have a high locked in and just have to wait for something to ram into it.  And I am willing to admit this is probably it for us if that WAR decides to stay there but I am saying dont be shocked if something pops up in the short or medium range in this type of pattern, its not impossible.  Were not heading into a december like pattern that is totally hostile to any chance.  It is odd that recently we seem to score way more when in a truly great pattern, but our luck in flawed but decent ones seems to suck.  We certainly are on a heater for MECS and HECS level events, but over the last 20 years we suck at the good old fashioned SECS type event in a flawed setup.  I wont speculate on why since I don't know and people throw around things like AGW too easily but it would be an interesting discussion and study to do. 

[psuhoffman]

the march 1958 blizzard wasnt till March 20th? the 93 blizzard was on March 13th. Plenty of time to get 20-40 more inches

you carry that torch better then I did... of course I can't tell when your being serious or just having fun with everyone. 

[psuhoffman]

Hell. No.

 

In all seriousness, in no way shape or form am I "all in" for 41 degrees and mangled flakes on March 20th while somewhere far north and west gets maybe an inch or two. That is crap weather for that part of the calendar. I am "all in" for looking for 65 degree days by that time.

 

This isn't Vermont.

Baltimore got 22" on March 30 once, just sayin

[Ji]

you carry that torch better then I did... of course I can't tell when your being serious or just having fun with everyone. 

its half/half but after seeing what i have since 1993, i dont ever count at a good storm till after March 20th. Of course the pattern has to be right. I have heard more about the WAR this year than any other winter combined. Its usually the SE ridge but this is crazy!

[EastCoast NPZ]

Winter is over.....until the midday runs show another great look at Day 10.

 

Winter is over regardless.  In 6 days it is spring.

[osfan24]

You can certainly get the freak late March snowstorm. My concern would be the lack of cold air we've had all winter. Even our big snowstorm lacked the truly cold air we've had with other big storms. I think we were mostly high 20's for the Jan blizzard. A lot of our other big snowstorms have had temps in the low 20's or even high teens. You need abnormally cold air in March, especially late, to get a good snowstorm, and we've had trouble getting the cold all season.

[Ji]

 

You can certainly get the freak late March snowstorm. My concern would be the lack of cold air we've had all winter. Even our big snowstorm lacked the truly cold air we've had with other big storms. I think we were mostly high 20's for the Jan blizzard. A lot of our other big snowstorms have had temps in the low 20's or even high teens. You need abnormally cold air in March, especially late, to get a good snowstorm, and we've had trouble getting the cold all season.

 

you just need enough cold air in march during the storm. I would expect anything that falls in March to melt as soon as the storm is over so for me, its just about heavy snowtv. If a storm tracks to our south, we should be fine

[CAPE]

 

You can certainly get the freak late March snowstorm. My concern would be the lack of cold air we've had all winter. Even our big snowstorm lacked the truly cold air we've had with other big storms. I think we were mostly high 20's for the Jan blizzard. A lot of our other big snowstorms have had temps in the low 20's or even high teens. You need abnormally cold air in March, especially late, to get a good snowstorm, and we've had trouble getting the cold all season.

 

It was a "decent" cold air mass leading in. And the early part of the storm, temps were in the low 20s. But except for the following day(Sunday) which was below freezing, temps were in the 40s and 50s and higher right after. We also had that 4 day cold shot 10 days ago. Thats basically it for the cold this year. Its been overall super warm, and as we move forward its not going to get easier to get a cold airmass/storm.

[North Balti Zen]

Baltimore got 22" on March 30 once, just sayin

 

Sure. And if something like that popped up, okey dokey. But you and I know that the more likely outcome is 41 and mangled flakes mid month. And I have no use for that at that point in the calendar.

 

ETA: Wasn't it warm prior to Superstorm in March '93? I wasn't around here then, but I think I recall from write-ups it was a decent warm stretch before the bomb?

[Bob Chill]

It was a "decent" cold air mass leading in. And the early part of the storm, temps were in the low 20s. But except for the following day(Sunday) which was below freezing, temps were in the 40s and 50s and higher right after. We also had that 4 day cold shot 10 days ago. Thats basically it for the cold this year. Its been overall super warm, and as we move forward its not going to get easier to get a cold airmass/storm.

 

I wouldn't say super warm is a good adjective since Jan 1st. Jan was BN at the airports and feb is hovering just above (bwi) and just below (dca/iad). We've done pretty well temp wise in the face of a really warm NH background state. 

 

Feb has sucked trying to mix cold and precip at the same time though. No way to sugarcoat that. lol

[Ji]

i think bob chill has checked out.....

 

edit: he just posted right before i posted this lol

[psuhoffman]

its half/half but after seeing what i have since 1993, i dont ever count at a good storm till after March 20th. Of course the pattern has to be right. I have heard more about the WAR this year than any other winter combined. Its usually the SE ridge but this is crazy!

I agree with that but I can't ignore the models pulling away from the really great look they had a week ago.  Like I said above the coming pattern doesn't look awful, but no longer the kind of one that makes snow likely this late in the year, especially for the metros.  Our area has a better chance later into March.  Westminster specifically has had 17 storms greater then 5" after March 8th since 1940, which is the period I am looking at.  While not a majority its certainly enough to not rule anything out.  On top of that there have been countless 2-4" type storms during that time and 7 storms greater then 10" and 2 greater then 30".  I am sure the climo in the cities is not as good but there are enough examples of late hits up here to keep me at least peeking at things until late in March. 

[87storms]

i get the impression winter is pretty cooked for the most part, but i still think we could luck into another event or two.  overall, seems like mild has won out this winter.  the notable days for me have been the blizzard (of course), a couple brief heavy snow showers, and the artic cold preceding the last drawn out snow to ice to rain storm.  aside from that, there's been a LOT of non-winter-like days.

[psuhoffman]

Sure. And if something like that popped up, okey dokey. But you and I know that the more likely outcome is 41 and mangled flakes mid month. And I have no use for that at that point in the calendar.

 

ETA: Wasn't it warm prior to Superstorm in March '93? I wasn't around here then, but I think I recall from write-ups it was a decent warm stretch before the bomb?

We probably still wouldn't see the 1942 palm sunday storm ahead of time as it was an inverted trough norlun type thing that probably wouldn't be well forecasted ahead of time today either.  The 1993 storm had an awful atlantic setup but we just got lucky that the trough dug at the right spot and bombed up the coast.  Most triple phasers actually dont have good blocking because to get all 3 branches to phase that's not good, but most triple phasers are rain for us also. 

[Bob Chill]

i think bob chill has checked out.....

 

I'm out until something shows up at a reasonable range. It's pretty futile tracking long shots this late in the game. Like I said earlier, if something shows up inside of 8 days that has legs I'll go into laser mode. There's really nothing promising on the horizon for the next 7-10 days imho. 

[Ji]

We probably still wouldn't see the 1942 palm sunday storm ahead of time as it was an inverted trough norlun type thing that probably wouldn't be well forecasted ahead of time today either.  The 1993 storm had an awful atlantic setup but we just got lucky that the trough dug at the right spot and bombed up the coast.  Most triple phasers actually dont have good blocking because to get all 3 branches to phase that's not good, but most triple phasers are rain for us also. 

yea..that storm was really fun but still had its issues. Lots of rain for DC east...and even Dulles mixed. But those who got all snow...wow

[psuhoffman]

I'm out until something shows up at a reasonable range. It's pretty futile tracking long shots this late in the game. Like I said earlier, if something shows up inside of 8 days that has legs I'll go into laser mode. There's really nothing promising on the horizon for the next 7-10 days imho. 

If we do get a threat I doubt it shows itself in the long range anyways.  As I glance at the GFS right now around day 6 it just seems so pathetic that with a decent EPO and AO that with a storm that just cut over northern New England, the cold is still barely pushing south behind it.  The boundary runs through the lakes.  That is sad.

[Ji]

even though this winter sucked...i would still take a good El Nino over anything else. Maybe we should appreciate our 3-4 inch snow to ice storm alot more than we did!

[mattie g]

Anyone up for a neutral w/ Supernino hangover next year?

[psuhoffman]

Anyone up for a neutral w/ Supernino hangover next year?

we have to hope for that, neutral or very weak nina's after a strong nino have some decent winters, Nina's following strong nino's are a disaster.  Next year will be easy to predict a fail if were starting at a nina in the fall.  It becomes more variable if there is a neutral ENSO signal.

[Ji]

my favorite JB quote of the year from yesterday!

 

 

cant do any better at hitting the upper pattern, However I think the west wind warm shots have cost us dearly in the temp forecast. But with the blocking coming for March I think we have the chance to make the most of the cold air.