Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion

[Wonderdog]

18z GFS Op run brings the March 4th storm through VA. Big change from 12z run. And the end of the run looked very promising.

[BristowWx]

18z GFS Op run brings the March 4th storm through VA. Big change from 12z run. And the end of the run looked very promising.

It looked better but still fighting the WAR. Wouldn't take much but op run at 200 so not gonna get worked up

[mitchnick]

The para GFS doesn't have you at least a little intrigued? (Genuine question, not snark)

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There's nothing to get excited about. You have to be very careful with those 6-hour precip maps because when it includes rain, they include the rain qpf in the total for the 6-hour period. So if you figure the 0-850 line means snow, and that's doubtful, but if you do, then the precip turns to snow at 219 hours along I95. Now, if you then go to the 12-hour precip total maps and click on 231 hours, the link below, there's very little precip that falls as snow after the changeover at 219 hours with this storm.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_231_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=precip_p12&fhr=231&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160223+12+UTC&ps=&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Bob Chill]

The para GFS doesn't have you at least a little intrigued? (Genuine question, not snark)

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

It's really hard to get excited about prospects in March until they are much closer than d8+ on an op run. I'm not saying we can't get a good event though. Just that EVERTHING has to break right for it to work out this late in our snow climo. And a long range op isn't going to get it right. 

 

I mostly look at ensemble guidance and neither the GEFS or EPS are showing much yet. When they do I'll be pretty quick to point it out. 

[SLPressure]

There's nothing to get excited about. You have to be very careful with those 6-hour precip maps because when it includes rain, they include the rain qpf in the total for the 6-hour period. So if you figure the 0-850 line means snow, and that's doubtful, but if you do, then the precip turns to snow at 219 hours along I95. Now, if you then go to the 12-hour precip total maps and click on 231 hours, the link below, there's very little precip that falls as snow after the changeover at 219 hours with this storm.

http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_231_precip_p12.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=precip_p12&fhr=231&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20160223+12+UTC&ps=&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Plus after the 180 hour panel all of the blues and dark greens are greatly exaggerated. Lots of dark blues translates to a light green, as your example clearly shows.

[psuhoffman]

Op runs are bouncing around every run.

[cae]

Most 12z GEPS members are cutters, but about 20-25% of them give DC some snow from the March 3 system.  There's one member that drops about 8", and the rest are well below that.  It's not much, but it's actually a step up from the 00z run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Op runs are bouncing around every run.

We know where that final bounce has landed of late.

[yuki neko]

We've really sucked at wave spacing this year...

[yuki neko]

Day 2

 

Day 10

[Amped]

Day 2

 

Day 10

Day 16 is rocking, Greenland Block, 50/50 low and Cutter

[MDstorm]

I finally found the late Feb/early March "window" that people have been talking about.

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

00Z GEFS...Blah. GEM ensembles...Blah. Both favor something to our west on the day 9 threat whether it be a cutter or a great lakes low or whatever. Only positive with both is there is no clear signal, with both having a washed out look. 

 

00Z EPS looks half decent though and has improved from its 12Z run for the day 9 threat. 500's show a deeper and sharper trough with better positioning before it swings up. We are also seeing an improvement with the ridging out west. Looking at the anomalies I would normally semi-expect to see further deepening and/or sharpening on the trough on future runs but the consistency from run to run has been lacking so I am not really sure what to expect. The difference with the 500's is somewhat noticeable with the surface reflection as well. We see the low forming farther south as to where it is now probably tapping into the gulf. The track up the coast looks very similar on both runs with it roughly running through or just to the east of our region. Looking at the snowfall during that period is roughly the same if not just a touch less then the 12Z. BUT...WE are still fighting WAR. So we all know how this will probably end.  

[CAPE]

I predict crickets for this thread in the days ahead.

[showmethesnow]

Looking past the day 9 threat on the EPS and comparing to the 12z in my opinion suggests that the pattern has degraded somewhat for our region. Though still a half decent look, that has the potential to produce, some of the subtle changes we have seen from the 12z run suggest the better chances have shifted north somewhat. The snowfall maps seem to suggest this as well with a general shifting north of the snowfall in the later range and showing negligible snowfall for our region during that period.

[showmethesnow]

I predict crickets for this thread in the days ahead.

Maybe for the those in the DC/Balt corridor but for those in the favored locations north and west of the cities the projected pattern ahead would suggest they are still in the game. Of course that is if the pattern actually materializes which is never a sure thing. I am with the small group that actually feels that we see chances deep into March possibly even into the cities. Now maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part. Maybe I am being biased because I don't want this winter to be a one hit wonder which would leave a sour taste in my mouth

[CAPE]

Maybe for the those in the DC/Balt corridor but for those in the favored locations north and west of the cities the projected pattern ahead would suggest they are still in the game. Of course that is if the pattern actually materializes which is never a sure thing. I am with the small group that actually feels that we see chances deep into March possibly even into the cities. Now maybe that is just wishful thinking on my part. Maybe I am being biased because I don't want this winter to be a one hit wonder which would leave a sour taste in my mouth

Maybe. Not too exciting looking ahead compared to several days ago, for anyone in the MA. Time, and persistence, are not on our side. If winter is done, its something like a C- for me. Would be an F if not for the big storm.

[showmethesnow]

Maybe. Not too exciting looking ahead compared to several days ago, for anyone in the MA. Time, and persistence, are not on our side. If winter is done, its something like a C- for me. Would be an F if not for the big storm.

Not sure you can really count on what the models are showing in the 7-15 day range at this point. Whether it is the seasonal change or whatever it is they are having a difficult time at this moment. All I know is when chill, psu and some others who are far more knowledgeable in longer range patterns then me are giving a heads up I listen. And even I can see the potential being displayed for the next several weeks. IF the pattern being advertised verifies somewhat we will have our chances. Now whether it is cold and wet or cold and white is the question.

[snowman19]

Looking past the day 9 threat on the EPS and comparing to the 12z in my opinion suggests that the pattern has degraded somewhat for our region. Though still a half decent look, that has the potential to produce, some of the subtle changes we have seen from the 12z run suggest the better chances have shifted north somewhat. The snowfall maps seem to suggest this as well with a general shifting north of the snowfall in the later range and showing negligible snowfall for our region during that period.

So nice how you guys in this forum discuss instead of argue and attack. Anyway, there is a common theme on all models, the WAR. Not good at all like you said. More likely than not, next week's storm cuts too

[snowfan]

EPS mean sucks for anyone east of 81. There are some decent members, but the majority are not good. Almost time to shut this thread down.

[psuhoffman]

I said I will wait until Friday because by then we should be close enough for the guidance to get a better look into the coming -AO mjo phase 8 period. That's usually a friendly look for us especially with a decent epo:nao as well. Of course perhaps the super Nino is overriding the typical teleconnections. Either way score the last 24 hours as a win for winterfork. If it still looks like this Friday its probably time to call tod. One thing to look out for that the euro is hinting at is for that day 8-10 storm to send a peice out ahead. That could be in our favor if it pulls the boundary south then the main low tides up right behind it. It's also slowing the timing down which could allow the next high to time up better. We need some help but that's one way to work with the war. Whatever amps will cut north hard so we need to get something into the southeast coast before it develops. A pressing high could do that or a frontrunner that pulls the trough east.

[Wonderdog]

It's too bad that every day it seems like the long range prognosis for this winter season degrades. It almost feels like the day 8 storm may be our best shot at winter weather this year, and that's a long shot. Here's hoping that's wrong.

[mitchnick]

Eps mean snowfall down to 1" for I95 and even west of it for the 15 day period.

[winterymix]

Next accumulated snow in 20 days or in 9 months.

[psuhoffman]

Eps mean snowfall down to 1" for I95 and even west of it for the 15 day period.

it was a bad run. No way to sugar coat it.

[mitchnick]

it was a bad run. No way to sugar coat it.

The Canadian 10 temp anamoly is always good. First, temps for us are slightly above normal but more problematic are the way above normal temps in NNE and the Canadian maritime thanks to that western Atlantic ridge. That's not going anywhere for at least 20 days imho which effectively kills our chances if that prog right.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

[CAPE]

Not sure you can really count on what the models are showing in the 7-15 day range at this point. Whether it is the seasonal change or whatever it is they are having a difficult time at this moment. All I know is when chill, psu and some others who are far more knowledgeable in longer range patterns then me are giving a heads up I listen. And even I can see the potential being displayed for the next several weeks. IF the pattern being advertised verifies somewhat we will have our chances. Now whether it is cold and wet or cold and white is the question.

My enthusiasm was based on getting some arctic air in here late in the weekend into next week with the vortex rotating down, some blocking to its north, and getting an overrunning event and perhaps a decent low to track underneath. That has completely disappeared. The persistence of the pattern this winter is going to work strongly against getting any cold in here as we move towards mid month, and Spring. I really doubt, despite an overall okay look to the advertised pattern beyond day 10, that it produces. Have not seen it but one time this entire winter, and that was in peak climo for cold and snow. We got lucky on that one.

[psuhoffman]

The Canadian 10 temp anamoly is always good. First, temps for us are slightly above normal but more problematic are the way above normal temps in NNE and the Canadian maritime thanks to that western Atlantic ridge. That's not going anywhere for at least 20 days imho which effectively kills our chances if that prog right.

https://weather.gc.ca/data/ensemble/images/tenday.gif

things look bad now but what I envisioned wasn't getting some Arctic airmass to settle into the northeast anyways. I was thinking a split flow pattern with epo and nao blocking and a raging stj. Get several storms to track to our south and hope one bombs enough to get it done. The kind of pattern where it's 45-50 the day before and after a snowstorm.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

It's too bad that every day it seems like the long range prognosis for this winter season degrades. It almost feels like the day 8 storm may be our best shot at winter weather this year, and that's a long shot. Here's hoping that's wrong.

 

While I know what you mean, our "best shot this winter" was actually the blizzard in January, of course.  And the time leading up to it.  Frustrating trends the past several days, to say the least.  At the beginning of the month I thought for sure we'd get a couple of area-wide moderate events through early March to round out the season.  The signals pointed that way, but it's just not panning out.

 

I'd still give this winter (assuming we're done) a B/B- overall, though some may say that's generous.  The blizzard of course is a large part of that, but we did have a couple of periods with solid cold...during the week leading up to the blizzard, and the week around Presidents' Day.  Given what we endured with the December torch, a very strong/record Nino, and overall not great expectations going into the season, I'd say we didn't do half badly, in fact a bit better than that.  Keep in mind too, that compared to a lot of areas (at least along the East Coast), we really lucked out with that very blizzard.  It was...so far...the one big storm of the year and we were the ones who were fortunate enough to cash in.  That doesn't happen very often.

 

On a final note, I'd say this wasn't completely a true "one hit wonder" winter, but more like a "one and a half hit wonder".  The half hit being the event that some got around Feb. 9 (though I only got 0.2" of white rain from it here), combined with the Presidents' Day snow and ice that affected a larger area.

 

I'm probably about to call it quits for the winter, other than checking the discussion and models now and then.  While I probably won't be following very much too closely unless something real shows up, I'll continue holding out a little hope that we get one last bit of a "surprise" in March all the same.

[Amped]

GFS shows a new Sumo champ. A little late in the season though.