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Late Feb/March Med/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr

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Anybody remember the arctic outbreak we were going to get Sunday into next week?

 

Wonder if that guy from SC is still expecting snow?  For that matter, wonder if anybody in northern Mich or NY is expecting snow?

Yeah once that completely evaporated, I started losing interest. Just not willing to wait 2 weeks and hope against hope we get some decent cold in here. Persistence was on our side last March(and more so 2 years ago). Not this one.

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February pattern on the means so far isn't terrible but never really got good either. Pretty good Pac but the persistent and stubborn + height anomaly in the Atlantic has really locked in the storm track to our west. The one storm that did manage to snow was only able to do so because of a very anomalous departing air mass. If that same setup happened in March it would have most likely ended up a rainer with maybe a brief mix at onset. 

 

Now that the next 2 threats appear to be going down the same path I have my doubts that anything will change in March even though models want us to think things will change in the Atlantic. Persistence can be a real pain in the a$$ sometimes. 

 

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Except that is a smoothed out mean.  We dont need the temperatures to be -10 all the time, just during precipitation in a storm.  That will never show up in a mean.  Even up here it was 45-50 the day before and after the March 58 storm.  That mean is averaged out between runs that have a storm at that exact time and runs that don't.  This is not a crazy cold pattern but its one that we may be able to get something to take a good track under us and hope its just cold enough with a good h5 pass.  That said today has been a pretty crappy day of runs so far.  The op runs of the GFS and Euro were total crap and if the EPS folds this afternoon or if the ops dont start to come around in the next couple days it wont matter.

I know it's a mean. But to get snow in these parts on March 10, we need a crazy cold, or near crazy cold, pattern.  

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February pattern on the means so far isn't terrible but never really got good either. Pretty good Pac but the persistent and stubborn + height anomaly in the Atlantic has really locked in the storm track to our west. The one storm that did manage to snow was only able to do so because of a very anomalous departing air mass. If that same setup happened in March it would have most likely ended up a rainer with maybe a brief mix at onset. 

 

Now that the next 2 threats appear to be going down the same path I have my doubts that anything will change in March even though models want us to think things will change in the Atlantic. Persistence can be a real pain in the a$$ sometimes. 

 

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BOB!!! Is this what you mean?

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do you struggle with daylight savings time since you get up so early ?

a lot of people don't like that the models run later but that's not the same as taking care of a dog and a wife

Actually with getting up at 3 am I really never notice Daylight savings time except for the days when the clocks get set forward or backwards. 

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Snowfall mean looks no different than it has in weeks though.

almost all the 2" is from a 2 day window. That's a stronger signal then 2" spread evenly over 2 weeks. Past day 10 the mean never goes way up. We will know very soon. The March 2-3 threat will show itself better in a day or two. The period I'm watching is March 7-15. That will also be coming into range soon where the ensembles will start to signal if it's real. If Friday we are still seeing a 2" mean on the eps then I'll close up shop for the year.
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almost all the 2" is from a 2 day window. That's a stronger signal then 2" spread evenly over 2 weeks. Past day 10 the mean never goes way up. We will know very soon. The March 2-3 threat will show itself better in a day or two. The period I'm watching is March 7-15. That will also be coming into range soon where the ensembles will start to signal if it's real. If Friday we are still seeing a 2" mean on the eps then I'll close up shop for the year.

I could be completely wrong but it seems to me that there is a base snowfall that the eps reflect over any 15-day period during met winter. I'm going to have to wait until next year to see if I am totally off base. I'll stick with that idea until then.
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I could be completely wrong but it seems to me that there is a base snowfall that the eps reflect over any 15-day period during met winter. I'm going to have to wait until next year to see if I am totally off base. I'll stick with that idea until then.

When the pattern sucks there is no snow. Most of December was awful for fantasy snow. I remember 15 day means with a virtual shutout save for some rogue member.

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When the pattern sucks there is no snow. Most of December was awful for fantasy snow. I remember 15 day means with a virtual shutout save for some rogue member.

Well, I'm more referring to a "typical" period like what we've seen the last month where it's not a complete shutout or a primo pattern. My point is that I suspect we need to see something more substantial than the background mean of 2" for several runs before getting confidence that the pattern is more likely than not to produce.
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Well, I'm more referring to a "typical" period like what we've seen the last month where it's not a complete shutout or a primo pattern. My point is that I suspect we need to see something more substantial than the background mean of 2" for several runs before getting confidence that the pattern is more likely than not to produce.

 

What has to happen is for a legit threat to get inside of 8 days or so. Once you get out 9-10+ days muddiness takes over and always washes things out. Sometimes models suddenly "find a threat" inside of 10 days as well. There will be a sudden jump across the ensemble suite. 

 

I don't pay much attention to the mean as I do the members and low location plots. The mean can be misleading. Sometimes a 2" mean is the result of nearly half the members showing a moderate event and other times it can be the byproduct of a couple historic solutions mixed in with 3+ quarters of the members showing a shutout. 

 

Right now nothing looks promising for the next week. I'm not investing much time into the chase at all right now. Haven't even been staying up for the 0z gfs run. If something real slips into the d8 range then I'll probably do what I always do and waste a bunch of time on it and get less sleep. lol

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What has to happen is for a legit threat to get inside of 8 days or so. Once you get out 9-10+ days muddiness takes over and always washes things out. Sometimes models suddenly "find a threat" inside of 10 days as well. There will be a sudden jump across the ensemble suite.

I don't pay much attention to the mean as I do the members and low location plots. The mean can be misleading. Sometimes a 2" mean is the result of nearly half the members showing a moderate event and other times it can be the byproduct of a couple historic solutions mixed in with 3+ quarters of the members showing a shutout.

Right now nothing looks promising for the next week. I'm not investing much time into the chase at all right now. Haven't even been staying up for the 0z gfs run. If something real slips into the d8 range then I'll probably do what I always do and waste a bunch of time on it and get less sleep. lol

The para GFS doesn't have you at least a little intrigued? (Genuine question, not snark)

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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